Fun Fact: The lower monthly Bollinger Band on GMCR is currently below $0, and the middle band (20-period monthly moving average) has been breached with ease.
Generally speaking, a break of the middle band places the lower band within the sights of bears. While I do not think it is much of a possibility that Green Mountain is going out of business anytime soon, the comparisons to Netflix’s monthly chart that I have been drawing for some time now remain relevant. Read my posts here here and here for more on that comparison.
In sum, momentum cuts both ways. Just as Green Mountain rode above the upper monthly Bollinger Band for quarters on end, do not rule out a nasty ying to this yang. In other words, I do not believe the inevitable relief bounces in Green Mountain are even worth playing yet.