iBankCoin
Full-time stock trader. Follow me here and on 12631
Joined Apr 1, 2010
8,861 Blog Posts

The Bittersweet Honey of Shorting a Rally

 

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The major indices are gapping up massively this morning, with the S&P 500 running directly into its slightly declining 200-day moving average. Shorts are on the run, big-time, and have not been given any real type of reprieve since the market turned on a dime back on October 4th down at 1074 and sprinted higher. If anything, the recent run illustrates that there is a huge difference between patiently sitting out a market in cash, waiting for better entry points, versus outright shorting a rally all the way up. While I have not been fully invested, I have been respecting the increasingly bullish action by methodically adding long exposure.

It is still very early in the trading session, so I am going to wait another twenty minutes or so before gauging whether the move has a good chance of sticking. I see plenty of traders on the Twitter stream eagerly stepping in to aggressively fade the move, which may mean psychologically that it will probably stick. Either way, I am still eyeing many of those financials that I charted last night.

Buying a gap higher is always a tough proposition, but as always I put it within the context of the chart. If it is a gap on a sloppy chart, I usually wait for a better spot. If the chart was tightening up an raring to go, I am more inclined to get involved. One chart hat I am watching here is Jabil Circuit, with potential to hold and continue this breakout from an ascending triangle pattern.

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9 comments

  1. jose mann

    that is exactly how I look like, get stung all over and is shocked and awed by the October move

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  2. skogie1

    Question: if today’s candle leaves a doji, inverted hammer, or hammer, what would the proceeding price action suggest? Would a doji be bearish, or bullish? Likewise, would an inverted hammer/hammer be bullish or bearish? Thanks.

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  3. jg

    best pic ever

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  4. Linda

    Where do you get this stuff? Hilarious. And yes, patience patience patience. Thanks for all you do!

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