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Looking over dozens of charts this evening, I am noticing some powerful combinations of bottoming candles, after the requisite prior steep downtrend of course. To be sure, the global liquidations that we have seen over the past two weeks are likely to offer up some rare opportunities, provided that this time is not different. As I discussed in a video that I posted this morning, history tells us that when the market is near 52-week highs, and then suddenly sees a swoon of this magnitude (See: 1998 LTCM), it is a far cry from the devastating climax of a late-stage bonafide bear market crash (See: October 2008-March 2009), in which subsequent bottoms can take six-to-eight months to form. In other words, barring a clean break from history, the worst of the correction is likely over, if not altogether.
The inverted hammer candlestick is considered a potentially bullish reversal signal when seen after a prior steep downtrend (when seen after a prior uptrend, it can be bearish and is referred to as a shooting star candle). Fancy names aside, these candles mean nothing without follow-through in the direction in which they seek to reverse. A great example of hammer candles that meant nothing was last Wednesday, when the S&P 500 printed a textbook hammer reversal, only to see us crater 500 Dow points the next day and negate the whole concept of a bottom.
However, the reason why today’s price action differs from prior days in this slow-motion crash is that we actually saw upside follow-through to a plethora of inverted hammers printed yesterday. Why so many inverted hammers yesterday? Because we closed right on the lows, so it makes sense that we would see plenty of those candles. Obviously, today’s finish has us looking candles that followed-though to the upside of those inverted hammers yesterday. There are also a bunch of other charts that printed hammers in their own right today, and of course they will need to confirm in the coming days. The key is that today’s lows hold, as things can become quite weak again quickly if they do not. Hence, the underlying bid will be truly put to the test here.
Below, you will find several examples of the mulit-punch combination of candles to shorts that I described.
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Great picture of a young Jack Johnson. Forgot about the airlines here with oil lower, hmmmm.
Chess
I am surprised you are not posting inverted hammer formations in better over all charts , with
price above the 50 or at least 200 day MA. Or are you just looking for the best bounce?
I find this the hardest time to swing trade because I am torn between high beta bounce potential
stocks and waiting for better set ups or break outs.
btw CREE is up after hours on earnings, could bode well for VECO
Thanks for all the work you do here.
That would be counter to the whole idea for a reversal, since you’d need an established prior downtrend that caused pain below those m.a,’s for the reversal candles to be more credible.
I am aware of CREE.
Only a dozens of charts! Slacker!
lol
Part of using your toolbox well is knowing when it’s not working.
they haven’t been negated yet