Here it is. My main market tell for at least the past few years, Freeport McMoRan, failed to make a fresh low along with the market two weeks ago. Currently, Freeport is knocking on the door for a breakout from the descending triangle outlined below. As quaint as it seems, Freeport has been a phenomenal broad market leading indicator as far back as I can remember. You are talking about a very well-managed firm that is levered to the highly economically sensitive commodity of copper, with some gold exposure thrown in as well.
As I mentioned in my video recap for Friday, the S&P 500 weekly candles these past two weeks have been a long-legged doji and an inverted hammer. Given that we have seen these candles after a prior downtrend, and especially in combination, the bulls have a golden opportunity to seize control of an increasingly indecisive market. Despite the violent chop, the market did not take out the lows made two weeks ago, and Freeport has not so much as tested its key $46 level in over a month.
If Freeport breaks out of this descending triangle next week, I will quickly flip the switch into being an increasingly aggressive bull. Believe me when I tell you that I put far more faith behind what Freeport does next week than I do traders rambling about how the market “just does not feel right to me,” or that “something just is wrong here, and the Europe thing freaks me out.” There will always, and I mean always, be a reason to dismiss price action. In the end, though, Dr. Copper and Nurse Freeport are the people you want to pay attention to when serious money is on the line, and the market is at a critical juncture.
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