Developing Your Thesis

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One of the most common mistakes that students in academia make is superficially touching on a given thesis in their writing, without truly fleshing it out. As an example, a well-meaning history student might attempt to discuss the entire Revolutionary War, from start to finish, rather than zeroing in on the significance of George Washington and the Continental Army’s winter at Valley Forge, as the professor had called for in the assignment. Indeed, an insufficiently focused paper will not only see you well on your way to a straight “C” grade at the end of the semester, but it will also inhibit your analytical abilities when applied to various situations faced in the “real world,” outside of the ivory tower.

In trading, by far one of the most difficult skills is sticking with a thesis that has proven true. Making the initial correct call is far less difficult than trading around it, yet still maintaing the given bullish or bearish posture. In the case of the solars, I have written quite a few posts recently discussing the initial high probability swing trade setups after the consolidation stemming from the rare bullish abandoned baby reversal in TAN, the ETF for solars. Indeed, I made some nice, quick profits in TSL and YGE, only to sell out of them as they were taking a much-needed rest. Presently, I have no solars in my portfolio, but you can bet that I will be actively stalking them tomorrow.

As you can see on the annotated charts below, the solars had a healthy pause over the past few days, but the strong buy volume has not abated. Indeed, developing the solar thesis is unquestionably one of my main tasks at hand.

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