___________
What if I told you that, within a matter of seconds, I found a stock that has been up 100% of the time in the month of April, with 13 data points to boot? Beyond that, the average return for this stock in the month of April is 17%. Would that command your attention? Well, even if you abhor seasonality analysis, take a gander at the chart of MDVN below, and consider the bullish consequences that would stem from a breach of $18.
For you reference, here is The PPT readout on seasonality for MDVN, which you can find for virtually every other issue in the market as well.
Seasonality
Month Avg % Return Total # Months # Months UP # Months DOWN January -1.726 11 5 (45.45%) 6 (54.55%) February 11.484 14 8 (57.14%) 6 (42.86%) March -4.779 15 8 (53.33%) 7 (46.67%) April 16.995 13 13 (100%) 0 (0%) May 2.411 11 6 (54.55%) 5 (45.45%) June -1.958 11 5 (45.45%) 6 (54.55%) July 2.07 12 8 (66.67%) 4 (33.33%) August -2.328 11 7 (63.64%) 4 (36.36%) September 4.4 12 7 (58.33%) 5 (41.67%) October -2.074 13 5 (38.46%) 8 (61.54%) November 2.355 14 7 (50%) 7 (50%) December 16.992 14 11 (78.57%) 3 (21.43%)
Click here for more information about The PPT.
___________
That is amazing!
Ok, heads 13 times in a row. The next one will be…
Exactly. I was hoping someone would point that out when I read this post. It’s just survivorship bias. Chess, you have to know that.
lol. That pic cracks me up.
Chess,
I ran the monthly data on MDVN and found some interesting results. They might interest you.
First, know that as opposed to March’s close price, I used April’s open price to determine the monthly gain. The difference is negligible imo.
Second, the chart above does look great.
MDVN: Of the 14 years of data I found, MDVN has returned <10% in 10 of them. Of the 4 where it has beat 10%, it's gained 21%, 37%, 42% and 100%. Without these years, it's April average gain is a mere 3.75%.
Of course, it's not fair to completely remove those 4 years, so take it for what it's worth. Nonetheless, as a technician, the charts will speak to you, right? 😛
Bought some Tuesday and sold today. A quick +3.28. Thank you 🙂
😉