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Understandably, traders are looking for ways to play the inevitable rebuild of the wrecked towns in Japan. Of course, how you play it is the most important issue. The key is to not delude yourself into thinking that your thesis is foolproof and simply must work. The market is the final arbiter, despite if everyone nods their heads in agreement at your ideas over cocktails. Indeed, Mr. Market is not a “yes man.”
Therefore, selecting your “Japan plays” without regard to price action and volume patterns is pure hubris, with you presupposing that the market will eventually come around to your point of view. My preference is to look for plays that I would have actually considered going long whether or not the disastrous events in Japan had ever unfolded. Weyerhaeuser Company, the second largest timber company (behind PCL) founded by this badass is sporting a technically sound chart, and clearly meets the threshold for playing Japan like a samurai warrior trader. See my notes on the daily chart below.
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thanks.. question – what’s “H/t” ??
“hat tip”.
I think chess is saying “hat tip – getting technical”.
I am assuming “getting technical” is a financial blogger or twitter “person.”
Twitterai?
Twiterati?
Ah da hecks with its!
yeah
pcl has a good divy too. thanks chess
True
I agree, sir – most likely the reason for the big disparity in performance between KEM and AVX and something I should have thought about sooner.
Thanks for the clomp over the head.
Not calling you out AB!
No, but sometimes the message finds the right person anyway.
Was already looking into something like that.
Thanks for doing the work for me!
cheers
Another thing everyone else forgot to notice is that WY is a major Wood pulp producer. That business has been on fire over the last year which helped to cover losses in their building materials business. Wood pulp is a raw material used in a variety of manufactured goods from diapers to nonwoven fabrics. I think you can expect future dividend increases. BTW, JApan is a major customer of their lumber.