These days, XOM trades like a small biotech grenade blowing the arms off of short sellers. Clearly, value investors are starting to be rewarded handsomely for picking up shares last summer, when the oil behemoth was trading around $55. However, fast-foward a few quarters later and we are talking about a stock that pretty much sums up my thoughts on commodities and commodity-related stocks at this point: Not at a major top, but likely at an intermediate-term one.
On my annotated zoomed out monthly chart below, note how steep the angle of ascent in XOM‘s recent breakout has now become. Also note that this is the first time since 2007 that Exxon has pierced its upper monthly Bollinger Band. Indeed, Exxon has spent what little of February we have seen completely outside of its upper monthly BB.
In other words, when I see this many traders trying to “ride the momo” in ExxonMobil, I can’t help but think that someone is being hustled, and it sure as hell will not be me.
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Chess, nice one! Good points, enjoyed it, good job as always! Just a thought here.
I have owned owned XOM since 2003-04, picked it up in the 46s and just sat on it. This was one of my better stocks to own thru 2008-2009, acted like a sold tank for the most part. And you know whats funny, I have been shocked at the way it has been acting. Yes, I noticed its steep upward move on the charts, I see and dont believe it, been wondering whenits gonan stop and reverse and just chop.
Hard to believe, because XOM has always acted like a big moving tank, even when storms like hurricanes would threaten back in the past, it might only go up 90 cents to a dollar lol. To see it now move like this, hard to digest but I have a theory.
The tables are being turned in the oil industry. I think for the interium, oil is going to be capped at around 100 bucks. The market is putting its weight behind these older names because, as I have come to realize about XOM. lets just say they are penny pinching tightwads, all big oil old names are like this. Therefore, this excution by these older oils as I like to call them, are getting more premuim in the marketplace because they can squeeze the most of a capped oil price, compared to the other racy names that had explosive growth, I am thinking PBR, OXY, etc.
Just my theory here.
It is nuts tho, seeing XOM blow past here, I cant even remember, being a long time holder of XOM, seeingit move 3 bucks in a day!!!!! that usually took like 3 weeks more like it haha
thanks again Chess, enjoy your material, keep it up!
XOM is by far the most difficult operator to work with. They send all their new hires to “Charm School” where they learn to be complete jerks when dealing with contractors. It’s not even close how demanding they are compared to the others. This works out great for shareholders.
I absolutely hate them when it comes to servicing their contracts. But I give them a lot of credit for getting maximum return on every dollar they spend.
Hello Chess, thank you for your great analyze as always. Are you still all in cash?