Mr. Market’s Day Off

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MARKET WRAP UP 08/18/10

In front of some key economic data tomorrow, the market nudged slightly higher today. Both the morning gap down and the early afternoon bull run were faded, as traders sought to avoid making bold bets in front of tomorrow’s headlines. With the S&P 500 closing up 0.15% to finish at 1094, the 1100 level remains a key battleground area since the bears gapped us down and held below it last week. Volume was lethargic, while breadth was unimpressive, with energy the clear laggard.

As you can see in the updated and annotated daily chart of the S&P 500 below, the area just above our current price is proving to be a real test of mettle for both bulls and bears.

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The Nasdaq Composite Index held support on Monday, but is already up against some tough resistance in the form of the 50 day moving average (see chart below).

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Let’s take a look at black gold for a moment. The monthly chart may very well be a good illustration for how 2010 is starting to shape up. After the euphoric bull run and subsequent crash in 2008 and the first half of 2009, the past fourteen months have more or less rendered crude oil to be dead money. The pink line in the chart below is drawn from highs of June 2009.

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Finally, I urge you to hone in on the financials. While their ETF has held on to the key $14 level, we have yet to see any inspired buying. Should the bulls manage a breakthrough and rip this higher, I expect the broad market to surge through that key 1100 level, dragging many bears with it.

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UPDATE: Much props to our resident King of the Peanut Gallery (KoPG), Turd, for telling everyone to take the day off earlier today. Agree or disagree with his views, no one can deny that Turd has confidence in his bold calls. Well done!

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