“History doesn’t repeat itself, but it does rhyme.” -Mark Twain
I think it is safe to say that the Nasdaq Composite was the main driver of speculation, as far as the broad indices were concerned, during the bubble that popped in 2000. Similarly, the Dow Jones Industrial Average saw a comparable run up during the “Roaring Twenties,” leading up to the Crash of 1929 and subsequent Great Depression.
Below, you will find the present day quarterly chart of the Nasdaq, as well as a quarterly chart of the Dow Jones leading up to, during, and after the Great Depression. I believe that the two charts are similar enough to warrant using the elder one as evidence of possible scenarios going forward.
According to the old Dow chart, the most likely scenario for the next few quarters for us now is an overall slow, albeit choppy, move sideways to down. You can draw your own conclusions, but I do believe the fundamental and technical backdrops are similar enough to make this exercise a constructive one.