CASINO UPDATE III

I will take off the remaining 1/4 swings in LVS and MGM. I am keeping WYNN.

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Once in a while, I try to put together important posts dealing with technical education, psychology, reviews, and other things. I do this so new people can find what they are looking for.

PSYCHOLOGY:

1) 4 Stages of learning

2) The Death Spiral

3) The Trader’s Mindset

4) Plan & Rules

5) We Are All Farmers

6) Fear

7) Attitude

8 ) Decision-Making

9) “As If” Principle

10) Concentration

11) Tape Reading I

12) Tape Reading II

———

STOCKTWITS TV:

1) AIG Trade

2) Common Breakouts

3) Doji Strategies

4) Volume Patterns

5) Intuitive I: Left vs Right Brain

6) Intuitive II: Cognitive & Emotional Biases

7) Intuitive III: Rhythm

———–

TECHNICAL EDUCATION:

1) Common Breakout Patterns

2) The Blank Box

3) Short-selling

4) Sequential Breakout Trading

5) Technical Analysis for Dummies

6) Channel Breakouts

7) Is TA for Idiots?

———

TRADE REVIEWS:

1) 03/27/10 (ABIO) – http://bit.ly/a109ku

2) 03/19/10 (SOMX) – http://bit.ly/cJRvVc

3) 03/10/10 (AIG) – http://bit.ly/a5RJma

4) 02/26/10 (NUVA) – http://bit.ly/9cbDLg

5) 02/05/10 (COH, APD, USO) – http://bit.ly/9K4eoz

6) 02/04/10 (LXK, APKT, BGP, PEIX, JCI) – http://bit.ly/aTNkUo

7) 01/08/10 (GENZ, CYCC, VVUS) – http://bit.ly/8LfDAr

8 ) 01/06/10 (STEC) – http://bit.ly/7Gjmhg

9) 12/23/09 (ATHX) – http://bit.ly/5Lbxro

10) 12/01/09 (SOMX, TGB) – http://bit.ly/4TL4BI

11) 11/22/09 (KIRK) – http://bit.ly/6o0GEB

12) 11/06/09 (FSYS) – http://bit.ly/15ypBc

13) 06/03/09 (ADLS) – http://bit.ly/aPvFUi

———

Good luck trading today!

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Here: http://www.scribd.com/doc/30025881

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I’m selling half my positions in MGM, WYNN, and LVS today. Just a scale-out.

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I found this linked to my blog here this morning, so I checked it out: http://bit.ly/brK4at.It was requested by some reader on CXO Advisory, so I am guessing it’s probably a hater that wanted to try to “get me”. Sorry buddy, but you failed. Here are some excerpts:

“Residual data constitutes 109 trades (a little over three per trading day) composed of 294 transactions (an average 2.7 transactions per round-trip trade) because of scaled exits. Of these trades 102 (7) are long (short). AIG is a favorite trading vehicle (29 of the 109 trades).”

“Weighting incremental exits equally, the average or arithmetic mean (median) holding period for these trades is 15 (8) minutes.”

“The following chart displays the gross profitability distribution for all 109 trades. The average gross return per trade is 1.24%, and the median gross return per trade is 0.29%. The standard deviation of gross trade returns is 4.81%. On average, trades are profitable so long as transaction fees are less than 0.46% of trade value (1.24% average gross return per trade divided 2.7 transactions per trade).”

“In summary, evidence from simple tests on a sample of limited duration indicates that John Lee’s trades are  profitable so long as trade size is reasonably large (so that transaction fees are percentage-wise small). Estimating portfolio-level performance would require additional assumptions and modeling.”

“Another trader trying to follow John Lee’s trades would face timing issues (substantial execution lag compared to typical holding period) and would have to set a cash allocation rule (holding cash in reserve for potential new trades).”

———————

My comments:

If you are going to follow me, I suggest that you learn the way I trade. Execution, cutting losses, and position-sizing are absolutely critical. If you are following, notice how my trades last for only a few minutes. I you are not quick, you are dead. Also, notice the number of break-even trades? I have this way of defensively and aggressively cutting losses and I never ignore my rule.  I also encourage everyone to build a profitable system (the one audited above was for my day trading strategies, I believe), instead of trying to find the holy grail. And yes, I do LOVE AIG, it is my favorite trading vehicle…but you guys already knew that.

Good luck trading this week!

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I started a new Intuitive Trading series on my last two Charts Gone Wild shows on Stocktwits TV. Part 3 will be this week. A got a lot of e-mails from people requesting the slides. Here they are folks, enjoy:

Intuitive Trading Part I: Right Brain vs. Left Brain: http://www.scribd.com/doc/29752005/psy1

Intuitive Trading Part II: Cognitive and Emotional Biases: http://www.scribd.com/doc/29752039

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