I am overwhelmed by the response on my last post. Incredibly, with all the comments on the blog, tweets, and e-mails combined, I received north of 500 responses. I believe I made my point.
I will listen to the community and make every attempt to just “ignore” these idiots. The blog comments section, the @replies to my twitter, and the 100+ emails in my inbox are proof and testimonials of what I do, day in and day out. Who can say anything now? They can’t.
However, I do have unfinished business with one idiot who I will deal with in the future. I am just collecting and saving up my best ammunition to use against him. Sun Tzu said, “draw your enemies in with the prospect of gain, then take them by confusion“. I am waiting patiently for the most opportunistic time to attack. It will be extremely painful for him.
Now, adjusting back to my old self. The market remains in consolidation. Notice the broadening formation (funnel) on the 10-day and 1-month? However, also note the neutral range on the 2-month/60-min and 6-month daily. We are in a neutral range which does not warrant any significant action in terms of taking absolute sides. Just stick with trading the high-probability setups and you’ll be fine.
CA – Thanks. Great charts and advice as always.
My Holy Book says:
Tell thine enemies, to get in the funnel, and STFU .
8)
May you live long enough to see the body of your enemy floating down the river ganges. Karma always has them coming back in the next life as a toad.
CA like the Sun Tzu quote…profits to us all. Cheers-Mate.
Cash, I’m having withdrawals from your doom & gloom posts.
Only thing I got this morning, is I like HBAN.
not a doom and gloomer..balanced…just not into everything is great camp…
CA – “Live LONG and prosper”
CA’s calls, real-time picks, analysis and advise are all legit and appreciated, thanks.
RTK b/o premarket, maybe setting up for another strong day
VM looking good, still own it
RF up in pre market
TSEM
CA you are the real deal…….I only get upset by those who I do respect, you need prove nothing to anyone but yourself.
PMI continues to look strong in pre-market.
I just tweeted this to you, but never sure if people get those, if they’re not following me:
@WeeklyTA What do you think of $ACLS on the weekly chart? Also, check action this week.
Really enjoy your work, by the way. Please keep up the good work, and ignore “negative nabobs of negativism!” 🙂
writersblock2 on Twitter
writersblock, everywhere else
This is somewhat anecdotal but it almost always works for me on shorter time-frames (especially with the indices).
Approaching key resistance there are often 3 attempts to push through – the 2nd retrace is often the deeper, more confusing move where shorts start to pile in wrongly (ultimately helping cause the 3rd and final push to clear through the resistance level).
On the SPX (1 hour chart), we are now approaching the key resistance level (1017) for the 3rd time.
If the pattern holds, we push through today – we’ll see.
did it
get ur shorts out. it should be a fairly big reversal today
DXO 4.89
Bought $PMI $3.08/frac
BOT FRE 1.67
Bought $FRE 1.72
PLA starting to move
MGI 2.58
HIG looks decent
sold at 21.09 from 20.52
bought back 21.64
Sold $PMI $3.08
Watching ME for break of ascending triangle…
Sold $FRE $1.73
ME hourly live chart: http://fsc.bz/8v
CAG could be interesting for a swing if it closes above 20 today.
Bought $LIZ 3.98
anyone following RNIN?
watching the intraday range so far on FAZ, pretty tight and tightening. May trade the break. I am guessing/assuming FAZ breaks up and the market breaks/trades down off these levels.
FAZ broke down, so I bought FAS at 76.57.
so far so good. The break carried.
Bought $C 4.67
Bought $FRE 1.78/frac
SPX 3rd push made it – right on time.
Euro is really helping this market last night / today.
Beautiful!
TBT breaking from a nice wedge
That 250-1 stock split ZRBA is up 10%+ today, no idea why. Low volume. I haven’t been able to find out what the record date is on the split.
Bought ME $12.70
bought yourself?
Bought $BAC 17.51
MGM 8.90
Sold $LIZ $4.05
PODD 9.94 looking for my 7% on the squeeze again today. In bunch of stuff earlier but too late to post anything meaningful – riding winners today. Liking the oil stocks for pops, lots of names might be ready, PDS, IO, HERO, NOV
Thank you CA. You rockkkkkkkkkk
Increased $C 10%
*4.77
Sold $BAC 17.53 – not for me
MGM out 8.88
YSI 6.17
Heavy in FAS
nice bottoming and reversal on UNG which has been tanking for a couple of days. Should make for a nice swing trade for a couple of days.
Careful – I’m in this trade from yesterday afternoon. IF we start to see the Euro decouple from the SPX again, energy will get crushed.
By the looks of the last Euro move in response to the SPX move, that MIGHT be starting.
thanks. I probably won’t trade it, as much as I have been an observer of UNG for a long while, I don’t like to trade it. I am going to focus on my FAZ/FAS trading today.
I do, however, LOVE the nat gas trade for a long term retirement trade as it stabilizes.
Totally agree. Not sure if you have seen some of my natural gas posts on my blog. You may appreciate them.
no… where?
http://www.cavemanforecaster.com of course… 🙂
http://www.cavemanforecaster.com/search/label/Natural%20Gas
will look – thanks.
still early to tell if USD is getting stronger on the housing news or if it is getting stronger anticipting failure of this rally
Euro – a test of 1.4300 – if it holds (and SPX stays firm or moves up) we could rip – was an over-reaction
so far so good – clearing 1.4227 should get us back up toward the highs of the day. just watch the SPX
I am in this trade BTW
the next wave up should clear 1.4318 or we may be stalling
out some at 1.4327 +25 pips
target 1.4358 area for the rest
Predictable Euro hotness
Watching for it to grind on the trend line as it moves to clear 1.4338
ES move to 1024 will add power
out some more at 1.4334 + 32 pips
1.4338 needs to clear – gotta move off the line or we might dip
Bounce at this trend line (1 min chart) or I’m out with my profits
bounced – perfect
no conviction on the sell side – still in
bulls need to take it here or else
still in with house money – will hold for a last hour pop unless things deteriorate
back at 1.4338 resistance – got within 1 pip before – failure is okay again unless volume comes in to the downside
we have until 3pm to just maintain this area and push above
crazy voodoo shit but, if we do push higher, we should get a new uptrend line at about a 26% angle.
on time fuckers
As soon as SPX follows, Euro should rip
above 1024 ES would do it
2nd wave coming
Still well within a 26% uptrend angle from 2:57pm bar – as long as it roughly holds that, I’m staying for 1.4358
paralyzed by greed – still in
out @ 1.4340 +38 pips on the last 2 contracts
$2375 trade
I hope somebody else made some $$$ on some of these trades this week!
Bought $FIG 5.12
MU
ABT
Bought DENN @ 2.65
What about HRZ? looked like a high and tight pattern and running today
Sold $FRE 1.79
Bought ZZ @ 2.67
looks good. maybe fill that gap from may, eh Pissant?
Sold $FIG 5.12
Sold $C 4.80
bought faz 23.88
I think they’re not sellling off now, maybe the end of trading hours
wussed out 23.75
YSI is a beaut
CA – whats your take on CIT? big move coming?
HEB
YES
decent position LEAP … 16.2 . going for dead cat
joined you .33
Sold ZZ @ 2.63
Bought $PMI 3.17/frac
sold JMBA SRZ
bought OCLS 2.25
still have FRE (edit: and ACLS)
KFN 3.08
PNX 2.04
CPE1.64
sold CPE 1.61
RT trying
FAZ/FAS now building a range at the breakdown/breakout levels. Hanging on my FAS long for now hoping for another move up but will sell if it breaks down the range it is setting. I have a line at about 77 to sell if it breaks down.
And soon after I wrote that, it broke 77 so out of FAS with small ~1% scalp. Looks like FAZ/FAS are reversing the early day moves. Not sure what that means for the market yet.
sold FRE 1.8
and bought SRS 11.5
XLF failed (so far) at 14.60- C overbought..FAZ should rally from these levels..
AIG could crash today or monday.
and ERY 16.85
WHOOSH…. hear that flushing noise of all those idiots getting crushed in C, FNM, FRE, AIG… they’ll rally again today after they flush all those morons out
perhaps..but it is unsustainable…low priced dog shit stocks..not a recipe for success…buy more than laddie..not me..short C at 4.82..AIG puts sept. 30 at 3.35..good luck to all participants…!!
Crapo… Sold DENN @ 2.61
Bought C again 4.71
feels like musical chairs – gotta run- setting tight stops on everything except HLCS.
Sold $PMI $3.20
SWSI trying to b/o
Bought SBGI 3.09. wish me luck
AHR maving a move
AHR making a move
CY trying to move
CHB too.
WTFrg!
ChnDragun – joining you with SBGI, what the hell….
lol. don’t bet too big.
Where did you get in at?
too high….3.15. This puppy is on a short leash and about to yank it.
We’ll see.
we might also see a quick pop. When that happens, take profit right away.
I’m out buddy… at 3.20.
Adding more MEXP here – long term lotto
the market sure feels exhausted here… but then again, I have quite a bearish bias lately.
I was like that yesterday. But as long as VIX hasn’t closed that gap, we’re still going to be in a bull market IMHO.
which gap are you watching on the VIX?
23.17 on 07/27
sold ERY
MPG littel late
PNX is percolating … need some volume … Gotta Have More Cowbell!
RPRX, possible??? need to see 1.25 to get in
Bought $MPG 1.999
*1.19 LOL
KIM flagging
HRZ – you watch something for a long time, nothing happens, eventually you forget about it …
Bought $CTIC 1.71
Sold $MPG $1.25
back in $MPG $1.30
MPG more
Sold $MPG 1.36/frac
MPG whippy bitch
Added to CTIC @ 1.71…. (bought yesterday @ 1.69)
CLZR 1.75
Long MNKD @ 7.5
forgot to say, out of MNKD @ 7.58
TTWO is finally moving.
Short AIG at $33.36
You’re going to get BURNED!
The flame feels good so far – there will be an attempt by call writers to draw it closer to $30.
You’re up 1% on a stock that moves 30% per day…. dont get too cocky
BPOP
TOMO b/o
RTK starting to pick up
CA – WTF ?! mileage per gallon is HIGH
OWW bustin loose
Cover 1/2 AIG at 32.71
added some nat gas 2.855 – LONG term position
Bought $RAD $1.59/60 for swing
sold CLZR 1.75
Sold CTIC @ 1.70… dont want to be holding into the weekend… AEZS is still in my mind, how i missed that by 10 mins (sold 350pm friday before the blow up)
was thinking same issue earlier..seems too easy to buy before news, and have stock explode.up..just a crap shoot here unless someone has better info…
based on what he market is telling me, i dont want to be there… if there was good news to be had, we’d have already seen a rally like HGSI in the days leading up to their explosion
tough to figure…market makers could take it lower just to shake people out as well…
Stock would have been rising yesterday and today… substantially. It hasnt, lower volume… lower price action.
agree…but its just sitting at price level all day, tough to figure, might be down 30% or up 75% on monday…might do a small position as a swing trade
My guess is that their $30 M injection stalled out any jumps leading into the news.
This isn’t a make or break decision, right, just FDA’s approval for fast track as I understand…
How long is your long term? For long term position of several months in nat gas I recommend January 2012 contract, not nearby. Nearby October contract can drop to about $2.
Very speculative – I know the roll risk is extreme but I’m playing with a very small position here and my gains in other trades far exceed the loss I might take here. Will keep scaling in until we get some snap back.
How do youn like PCBC
Live chart: http://fsc.bz/9O
In full cash. Will evaluate swings closer to the close.
Market seem to run up alot this week. Do you think it will pull back next week, CA?
I sold out almost. I’m 95% cash now
OCLR for the head fake …..
AKAM b/o
HOV looking to b/o
$LIZ trying again
NCT b/o
$CAL b/o
OPXA looks like one to watch for next week
PCBC imminent!
Thar she blows!
GCI b/o
Out of OCLR @ $.82 (bot @ .72)
Holdings are MGI, ZRBA and DXO. Watch MGI closely here…
BBND 4.06 AMD 3.69 w/e holds
I have plenty of patience but PNX better get off its’ ass soon or else!
Long CTIC into the weekend! Rolling the dice.
CLZR shaping up to be an excellent overnighter. unfortunately i will not be able to trade next week …
i’ll likely hold the SRS for the week with a stop at my buy entry 11.5
Long CHLN for the weekends. 4.29
Also holding CTIC into the weekend along with some FRE, C, and CIT. Small positions so I can sleep just fine.
FULT moving!
Small position in $CTIC going into the weekend. lotto play.
Damn my days are too short….1/2 position CTIC into the weekend, a 3X position in HLCS, some stuff from a while ago, 70 plus % cash.
I’m missing a lot of good shit here with my current schedule….
you’re not missing much today bro.
I’m still looking over the day – market way up mostly without me 🙁 except a nice little EOD push on HLCS (I own way too much).
One thing that bugs me is that my clients (all doctors) are having serious trouble paying their bills – a lot of slow paying going on. That never happened during the dotcom crash. Hard to connect it to the rest of the world, a lot of these guys simply have big lifestyles and big debt, and can’t or haven’t adjusted.
doctors having a hard time paying bills…lol really?
They don’t want to leave the lifestyle that they are so accustomed to.
because THEY are not being paid on time anymore either
All true –
Hard to give up the wifes 4matic 😉 the little boutique she runs in town that’s losing money, Georgetown tuition, the cottage on the lake, etc. etc…
They are definitely in trouble – reimbursement is down, employee costs / insurance up…been going on for over a decade. Patients are very late paying them (we sell software and provide billing services)
whoa, that’s not a description of me and my lovely artist wife…hell she’s a full time stay at home mom / artist “in residence” excellent cook (we might go out to dinner once or twice a month) and we own a nice but modest house going on 12 years, 6 years old volvo (paid for) and a 10 year old Nissan pathfinder that I put 500 miles a year on (I ride a bike to work if I have to go in).
I’ve (we’ve all) seen a lot of lunacy out there – folks tapping themselves way out. We used to marvel at new home buyers in homes that required 2 six figure salaries. Newsflash, there just weren’t that many 6 figure jobs here in maine, and now there are half as many.
Just the fact they you are a Doctor AND you make money in the market proves you are not that guy – you know that right?
CA – Thanks for all your picks this week. You are helping many people in dire need of cash
I cannot post much because of my full time job but I check-in at times to learn. Thanks again, again for your generosity to teach me/others. After this earthly life is over, there has got to be a great place for a guy like you, CA. You have a big heart. Have a great weekend … party-hardy but be careful!!
you’re welcome
With a market like this, bank earnings are going to be outrageous next qtr…
Who was bidding 149K CTIC at 1.69 after hours and then chickened out and cancelled? Did you really think you could get that much after hours?
Added MBI on the close @ $5.47 … buying the H in C&H on good volume last 15 mins … see what happens
Going short Euros over the weekend @ 1.4332. A few reasons:
1. Euro is starting to hint that it may de-correlate a bit as the market continues to rip. We saw it on the 7th and we saw it today (confusion). When great news is released and the market rips, the Euro responds in kind and then sells hard and fast as the market continues to show strength. If the market rips, possible Euro weakness.
2. If the market sells off – bonus Euro weakness…
3. The Euro has been hesitating A LOT at key resistance levels despite market rips.
4. The Euro has been dumping fast on any hint of market weakness.
5. We are getting a bit stretched out at this level.
6. The SPX will probably have to test the 1017 level again – even if it continues to run.
7. The Euro will probably have to test the 1.4300 level again – even if it continues to run.
8. Europe is firming up rather nicely.
9. If the market continues like this and banks make the money they look like they will, QE and repurchases will slow everywhere remembering that QE in Europe is corp. debt related and won’t have as much of an impact.
10. I missed a couple of points in here but that should be enough for 30+ points as the first target to cover with a 2nd target in the 1.4275 area and a 3rd target at 1.4250 – depending on the chart of course.
And finally, I’ve been very tuned in to this trade for 2 weeks and have made the final calls (all longs) in the past 3 days.
Live Euro calls for the week (4 entries with 9 exits – long only).
+60 pips
+113 pips
+23 pips
+34 pips
+52 pips
+1 pip
+25 pips
+32 pips
+38 pips
Like they say, It’s a traders market – mean reversion with upside bias is in play and you have to get short when the market stretches and go long on the dips.
funny how 3 days ago we were all going to be living under bridges and the market was headed straight down.
funny how today we are going to 1100 – party hats all ’round.
funny how Cramer has been nailing it lately (fuck?) and certainly real credit is due to the Fly and CA for playing it right.
the real money in the market is staying in and laughing while they buy MORE every time you sell off (you know who you are).
mean reversion with an upside bias!!!!!
By the way; I trade on my laptop… in my underwear… in bed… and don’t shower until 4:30 or so. Don’t listen to me. Bitches.
way to go, retox.
basically you are saying Dollar and market both can rip like last year. With so many direct and inverse correlations and the correlations itself going 180 degrees, I am now lost. I am just followin your philosophy
“mean reversion with an upside bias!!!!!”
covered Euro short 1.4332 BE
tired, sick, and over-medicated