The AIG Trade
First, the SPX is in a tight narrow range. That’s it. Moving on…
Now, I’ve been asked by many, many people to detail my AIG trade, so that’s what I will do. I didn’t get the idea to do this until a reader by the name of Eric Weisgerber sent me a chart detailing my trades. I thought it was pretty cool, and here’s what he sent me (with his permission to post, of course):
AIG accounted for about 70% of my day’s gains. I am very close to hitting my +300% 2009 YTD mark and today, I am effectively increasing my 2009 goal to +400%. You heard it here first.
The first question is, “what made me venture outside of my $1-3 playing field”? It’s simple. I was tracking the XLF and several financial components and realized that I had to abandon my dollar stock circus plays immediately. This rarely happens, but when it does, I will cut everything I have to focus on whatever I believe will be the best use of my capital.
I annotated my own Stockcharts.com chart using Eric’s notes (and my twitter) simply because I love Stockcharts.com:
Then came AIG. AIG at $14 was already a base breakout on the daily, so it caught my attention immediately. My first purchase was at $14.46 as noted.
Now, as you may have noticed for the past few weeks, I do scale in and out of positions. This ensures that I keep the majority of my gains, while keeping any losses at a minimum (I did lose once on the AIG trade after 2PM for -2%, which was nothing to me). Scaling in and out is a primary strategy for me during momentum plays.
In the next few trades, you can see a multitude of symmetrical and ascending triangles. It is important to note the volume. Volume should be light during these consolidations. On the first spike, whether it’s still inside or outside of the triangle, the volume should spike. This provides the “spark” that will keep a stock moving. This applies to all trades.
My first and only loss came when a double top formed on AIG. I sold near the first breakdown. A -2% loss at this point didn’t even register in my mind. Following the complete breakdown, you can see that AIG was stabilizing. I bought at the first breakout of the base stabilization and I am still holding that 5% position.
In total, I made more in one day than what most people work to make in a year as a salaried employee.
My attention has now shifted to all financial stocks at this point, regardless of price, because they all have the capability to become Spikers RIGHT NOW.
So that’s that. My CIT and FRE trades followed similar patterns, but not like AIG which went totally insane. It’s important to trade what you see. Many people were confused that there was no news out. Who cares? Find out later. Your objective is to take advantage of what is present, and the present told me I was gonna bank serious coin.
So that’s the AIG trade, the trade that became the decisive factor in my decision to increase my YTD goal to +400% YTD.
The pink and light green boxes are the scale in’s and out’s. The red and green boxes are the full buys/sells.
Would it have been nice to know that AIG was gonna go straight up? Sure, but no one knew that. That’s why I had to make the number of trades that I made.
you never traded this stock today you use that chart above no day trader woudl use obfuscating the facts with all those useless break out level- 20 day moving average and a slong as stock stayed above it you ride it- scalping a stock move like this means you cant read chart pattern and mnoreover cannot produce a similar trade pattern after this one ever as you make it sound so common.
I couldn’t understand what you just wrote. Did you say something about Big Bird and Kermit gangbanging ur brains out while the pimp himself, the Count, collects ur dough?
Dude…do whatever you want, but please keep that info private.
haha. nice work on that 20 day moving average schlong pattern. this is similar to The Fly’s cock and balls formation.
I don’t get it, if you don’t believe him, why are you here? What’s your purpose?
very impressive
As always … thank you so much for all your work. The AIG chart is a great on-the-job training tool. A chart to print out and refer to. Congrats on AIG.
Great job man….making huge money along with u..i bought AIg @ 15.12 avg…..still holding……..holding CIT and POT as well…….
You totally deserve those great gains you made today with all the work you have done over many years to be ready when the opportunities (set ups you watch for) are in front of you. I’m super happy for you CA.
Good for you! By the chart above, I can see how you press your bets on the vertical ramp-ups, waiting for the trend to break before you sell. The sell at 22.17 was a thing of beauty.
Crazy.
All this is exactly what you’ve described time and time again in your previous articles on trading breakouts… textbook… so I don’t know what viniboobula was talking about either.
Beautiful play man, congrats.
You are still a serious punk ass though and you aggravate the shit out of me with your Lord Hummus nonsense. But I am still totally bitter and envious of your skills. So I’ll grin and bear it and pay my respects. You deserve it, bro.
You’ve been preaching that kind of action for as long as I’ve been reading your goods. Textbook CA training if anyone has been following and I was thrilled to jump in. Talent, freakin talent.
that was excellent work today bro.
CA-
Thank you for taking the time to write and share your trading work here. It certainly isn’t necessary for you to do this, but you do, and it is appreciated. Greg
great stuff CA! happy for you on the AIG win …
sold AIG 25.15
I take it ! danke
also, looking like a possible HIG squeeze … decent short position .. it won’t be an AIG, but should be $$$
oops .. left moolah on the AIG table …
mucho grande moolah
oh my !
possible ETFC squeezage in the making … put on your radar
same for DRL FTBK
indeed ETFC looks good, u in?
went in near the close yesterday @ 1.45, hoping for junky financial follow thru
AIG up another $5! YAY!
CA – what time are you out of BWI tomorrow? Pleasant lady at the 6 am check this morning politely pointed out my flight is tomorrow at 6 am. My departure is on Airtran at 4 pm but I’ll be there probably from noon or so on.
I’ll be here to trade today, but I’ve only got about 15% of my cash to trade with….potential big bummer…
9:25PM tomorrow on Airtran
I believe this might just be the top this morning, a 2-3% pullback is probably in order. Like i was saying yesterday, anytime these shits run like this… the market tops. May 7th last time it occurred.
This sqeeze in AIG, CIT, ABK, C all needs to be at the highs of the morning at the open too… which i do expect. I’m looking for chances to scoop ABK and CIT soon
Bought ABK @ 1.45, Bought CIT @ 1.52
Sold ABK @ 1.51… futures going against me a little bit, dont want to be too long
Watching FHCO for another all-time high breakout today. earnings report tomorrow however. I will only daytrade it.
Sold $7.10. not feeling it today. also stopped out on RUTH. 100% Cash.
MEXP – I’m averaged in on this lotto ticket at .13 from long ago and my first day back from a much needed vacation, I wake up to this:
MIAMI –(BUSINESS WIRE)– With only a portion of the new shipwreck site surveyed, Marine Exploration, Inc. (OTCBB: MEXP) announces the Company, and joint venture partner Hispaniola Ventures, LLC , have recovered numerous and various treasure artifacts. Near term updates are expected to continue.
Mark Goldberg , CEO Marine Exploration notes, “Like the Nuestra Senora de la Concepcion, one of Burt Webber’s prior finds, the initial indications are that this new shipwreck site contains partial remnants determined to be from the 1700s. At this time, the site is secure and the location is not being made public. Our research vessel, R/V Hispaniola, is on the way back to port with the treasures. The Company will have photographs and videos of the artifacts available to its investors in the near future.”
Haha! Well done.
“Mike says:
August 5, 2009 at 12:07 pm
CIT lol, looks like you might want to adjust that 300% goal to 400%”
Ha! How’s that for a prediction. Anyone wanna buy some puts on CA’s yearly gains? 400 pct, dec expiration?
Sold CIT @ 1.55, want to be flat going into the open
wtf man… AIG and CIT still going…
thanks ca well done
Is twitter down?
Down for like 20min. already.. probably CA follower overload Twitter
one less place to post
yea, that and stocktwits
CA, you said “It’s simple. I was tracking the XLF and several financial components and realized that I had to abandon my dollar stock circus plays immediately” what did you see there?
Was wondering this also.
Short size in QQQQ’s @ 39.83… 40.2 stop loss
Bought FHCO $7.21
PCBC running- per Fly…
monolines/bond insurers on fire after RDN news yesterday
I am watching RDN, any other tickers in particular you like?
in BAC, CIT, ETFC, FIG, PCBC, along with existing AIG and C
and BPOP
hard to open IBN…needs drag down whole comments
Twitter down
In DRL 2.53, RDN, 7.82
Also in MBI 6.86
in ETFC 1.49
What is your stop at?
out from CIT and AIG..thanks CA..huge profit
Great timing man! Nice trade.
Long BEAT 7.56
Out, small loss. so much for beating earnings…
CA broke twitter : (
I thought twitter and stocktwits were separate entities… full moon today?
Sen Cantwell (D-WA) says Govt agency to make major announcement on oil price manipulation at 10AM – Reuters
What a joke, cant wait to hear it
Out BAC, AIG, BPOP, C
symmetrical triangle on the daily for CIT
CIT remaining
LOL at CNBC trying to explain AIG
Loving the drop on SPX
Yesterday they were scrambling to find out what news broke that made AIG jump…
Can anyone get AIG shares to short?
Out CIT, 100%. Up 0.1% so far motherfucker.
Bought 5% FAZ, short wFC, short BAC
Out BAC, keeping things to a minimum
nvm, short JPM
no it should be impossible now, but you can buy some puts
bank shorts??????????haaaaaaaaa
I always can CA
what broker?
Bought some HSNI. Great daily breakout and great very bullish intraday.
out of HSNI, loss.
today blows monkey balls.
Speak for yourself lol
When I first joined IBC this was my first name=
Anyways I stated before that the trade of shorting could go very much against me and I was unsure of it once the dollar broke down even more. That said I am buying ERTS puts, Pot puts, AMZN puts(2x), and ISLE puts.
I would short AIG, but puts to expensive and no shares to borrow
Cool, I was hoping for you to post. Holding my buys now with confidence…
Da bears you sound like a Philippine village boy attempting to speak english.
thanks! let me know when you are going to take a shit.
Thanks dipshit I just got long 50% of my cash into everything you shorted … now FUCK OFF! SHIIIIIIIT!!!!
FAS turns green less than 10 minutes after your post. Too freakin funny, you are making my day.
My entries for most stuff were about half n hour earlier….. Btw I don trade intraday tapes much…
Anyways most of my positions are in until trend reversal is clear. See yah.
Hmmm. I sold puts on AMZN, b/c it hit support…
AIG was interesting yesterday…today its old news…move on
There you go, David Faber said you had to pay roughly 70% annual rebate to borrow AIG shares yesterday. Then borrows went nonexistant yesterday afternoon
AIG probbly reports a profit tomorrow, bc mark-to-market rules being lifted… i mean if RDN and MBI can report a profit, why not AIG to make the govt look smart?
Funny, i raped AIG short this morning for its morning pop
unloaded a ton of shiite
short-term exhaustion, at a minimum
you or the market? seriously which timeframe and which direction you talking about?
long AIG 24.1599
http://www.istwitterdown.com/
watching ROCK and ANSS
Bought SOL 5.80
sold 1/2 HIG 18
Short STT here
bot more ETFC 1.44 BPOP 1.50 Hban 4.48 and working FIG and CIT thank you Josh the best contrarian indicator ever
What do you guys think of short GS?
why you want to short the best? short the worst…
its fine..but why not just buy FAZ, for leverage -spread risk.
HIG popping
whats everyones obsession with ETFC?
#! Reason JOsh aka da-bears_ eat_my_ ballz is shorting it
#2 nice set up with potential SS if Financials continued rally
Bought CRBC .72/frac
Out STT. Loss.
Bought CNXT 2.17
Out half CRBC 0.83 flag
Out, AIG 24.41
Out 1/4 CRBC 0.81/frac
Out all CRBC 0.81/frac
Bought AIG $24.85
Sold FAZ, covered JPM, WFC
Sold AIG 24.50 flat
Bought HYC $2.62
Sold HYC $2.60 – too illiquid
FIG impressive to me
anyone use sharebuilder at $4 a trade?
nope, they are horrible. don’t recommend them at all.
thanks venim, any recommendation for low cost $ per trade account?
i use zecco which work fine at 4.50 a trade plus 10 free trades a month if you trade 25 or more times a month.
Bot Fig 5.33
you know the squeeze is back on when JDJB doubles down…he and FAS have been like canaries in a coal mine for the recent sessions, but he is the better of the two.
IN SUF AT 1.37 JUST BROKE OUT
Short pcs.
Sold half CNXT $2.38
Short WFC 28.31
Covered WFC $28.42 – not time yet
Bought 5% CRBC .83/frac
Now I feel a little bit smart, I bought CRBC same time/place as you here just now.
First time in months that i can get a borrow on C
Short C @ 3.72, stop loss @ 3.82
more BPOP @ 1.55
out pcs, tiny win
, short ggc
twitter sucks
Sold all CNXT $2.37/frac
short twitter
RTK 0.715
watching DRE CTBK AND ROCK for BREAKOUTS
in SUF
Sold half CRBC 0.89/frac
Sold 1/4 CRBC .92 flat
I am sure a good move but I am not as good as you so I will hold on and hope for more run.
Covered C @ 3.74, return to it later
100% short twitter, puts, Ticker: TWAT 3x short ETF, everything.
Out final 1/4 CRBC .90/frac
LOL
I’m waiting for someone to ask…
“I can’t find this stock symbol anywhere, how do I buy it?
LOL
out half ggc
up 2% for the day. Gotta run errands. cya!
good post this morning thanx CA
thanks indeed. Still hanging in CRBC, up to 0.95
Another great morning …. and indeed thanks for a real good post really puts a nice perspective on yesterday squeeze … come back by afternoon though as we just might have a move again jeez even GS Abby Smith is bullish on financials and JoshTurd is shorting as usual
congrats with the kickass week CA!
ALY
twitter up
FBP 3.25
add more RTK 0.74
I bought more crbc, I will let it run with a stop.
Nice! Now I am cheering for a 1 handle on it… Lots o volume coming in…
Bought ALY 2.669, for a long as i can hold.
Doubled ALY, cut CRBC .92
Initiated FAZ position $27.36
Sold FAZ $27.10 – possible double b
FAZ BOOOOOOO!
Still holding CRBC, but got to go away for a bit so I put a stop loss in to at least keep some profit if it drops from here although it looks like it is in a healthy consolidation pattern again.
Sold ALY $2.67. Well I’m up 1% for the day now, so I will just do my errands like I said I would.
The way you’ve been trading, you can’t afford to run errands – - hire a Jeeves.
http://despair.com/somevedi.html
SCSS
between zecco & tradeking? one better than other?? Thanks in advance
Why not thinkorswim? About as cheap ($5 trades), but with a _much_ better software and/or web interface…
SRS hedge 18.86 … IYR may be putting in a ST top
Reshorting C @ 3.72….
Cant get a borrow in OWW, but if you can.. it’s a solid short. Should find stops below 4.60 (unch on the day) and 4.50, and 4.25…. just take a look at DAN today. Easy game to wipe out retail investors
Been watching a descending tri on the SPX all day, short now
Too soon, covered -.5
Short BGC at 35.85
Hackers attacked twitter –> http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/us_tec_twitter_outage
Covered that massive QQQQ short @ 39.50….. it was a 50% position
Long PCS at 8.98
Out GGC.
Long UNG
PCBC BE again ….. BPOP on the move back up as well
Long BVF at 14.16, sold PCS at 8.90
got stopped out of CRBC while away. Oh well still made a solid 3% profit.
sold 1/2 PCBC 2.80
NABI 2.54 a bit thin, so small pos
im back
hola
we held all this time and you came just in time to short all sort of shit
Oout of FIG 5.14 and sold a bit of HBAN
There goes that triangle I was talking about, shorted at breakdown
Covered, +2
well well well, the mkt btfDOWN
you think this is a start of a breakdown in market?
out ung
that stuff is volatile!
CA- i posted my AIG trades which were very eerily similiar to yours with real time charts http://fearandgreedtrader.blogspot.com/ it was a fun day!
Long TTI at 8.94
MTLQQ 0.585
I got a borrow on OWW, short @ 4.55
Although my positions are bearish one needs to be cautious on both sides. Since neither side has won the current battle. I think once below 930 SPX I will hand it to the bears, but I’m cautious until then. Anyways I saw a bear flag on SPY = 98.2 or 980 SPX(due to divergence in Spy). Also with the market refusing to pullback that was bearish so a pullback can be viewed bullishly. One just needs to be careful about going long because if buyers dont come back in after taking profit or sellers dont cover and take losses well then bears then have the hand. The trend is up and still is up until 930 SPX is taken out. But that’s not to say you cant play short just be cautious and know your exits.
I got some areas where I lower my stops. 935 and 950 SPX are some areas. Along with certain gold and treasury prices
*waves to josh* as i scroll on by paying no attn whatsoever to what is surely utterly useless garble contained above.
LIke anyone gives a shit what you think take your after the fact commentary and shove it up your arse … NOW FUCK OFF from here ______ NOBODY cares what you think … GET IT!
CA can’t you just ban this fuck once and for all !!!!!
Everytime you say something like this market goes up 3 points and down 5……. but sure…. .keep it up it’s helping me out and the puts you said were terrible adds this morning.
Josh – what the point of your comment? I don’t understand a word you’re saying.
Although this may be the top. It may simply be a buyable dip. A dip buyable between 935 SPX and ~995 SPX. I favor somewhere in 935-950. Since the market is so complicated and simply looking at one chart can give you many points of support /resistance. However if looking at treasuries/dollar/gold when they top/bottom on important trend lines can give you a better clue as to what trend line in SPX the market might find support at. If I were to name a trend line now I would be guessing, because the gold has not dropped enough and dollar/treasuries have not risen enough.
What I am explaining above is one of the difficulties I suffered trying to short this bear market rally. I shorted based on one chart. Asset classes must correlate in giving you that short signal and the fact that I now when I trade against the IT trend is only 50% of my capital.
YOU’RE A LUNATIC
Fuck off
So you saying it can go either way … WOW how insightful …. Fucking Moron!
Am I a freaken fortune reader. I said you wont be able to tell until we get to the lower prices. Ask CA where the pullback ends if its a pullback. You dont know until you see the freaking pullback and how other asset classes move. Idiot.
Lemme get this straight, you’re saying there could either be a buying opportunity, or a selling opportunity somewhere within a 60 point range on the SPX? Insightful. And let’s not ignore that segacious advice that it’s messy. Perhaps you need a less squiggly chart to interpret. How’s your call on this one:
(hint: it’s not up)
I said my ideal is in the 935-950. Agian read above you dont know if it is buyable until you see the pullback/move down. Is it corrective and how other asset classes move.
The trades I placed are all up besides FAZ. Again I am only 50% short.
P.s. great call on GLD, i bet your puts are working there.
EDZ your getting hit there since last friday, and FAZ your getting homo hammered.
STFU and stop acting like you know this market, fucking prick
EDZ i am up on so good call there………..
FAZ i am down.
GLD my puts are gains same with SLV, same with various gold/silver shorts in addition to ….. Pot, ISLE and a few others……
So good call .
You cant lie to me… you have no gains in GLD puts… the lows on all put contracts is the same level within .05 that they’re trading at right now. You cant be making a profit you fool.
You’re flat at best, bc of all that decay
I havent checked them recently but had GLD not sky rocketed I did. And you have no idea what my contract lengths are………. or what #s. ITM OTM ATM…… I will say yesterday they were flat. But my SLV were up 7%. You seem to forget options are volatile so a small move represents a big move.
sold TTI at 8.86,5
Didnt break as hard as it should, covered OWW @ 4.44
SCSS trying
Sold BVF at 14.18
ALY knocking
Bought ALY $2.74
MERC
Do you use the one minute or the five minute chart to determine chart formation and make these day trades?? Thanks
STSA 3.05
I wonder what the combined YTD return for everyone on this blog would be. It’s gotta be pretty impressive.
Bought $JASO $5.19
I vote to keep Josh – passive aggressive pisser that he is – every time he posts the market turns up. I swear, look at the tape at 2:21 and before that at 10:23. The guy is a miracle worker – I may yet claw back my 1% loss today and I would thank him.
I know I hear ya Doc except he gets me steaming that I miss trades b/c I actually try and reason with the fucking retard …. plus he has major negative Karma points every time he shows up …. he is what you call a cooler, which as you point out could be a good thing, if it wasn’t that fucking annoying always pretending he actually knows something about markets/trading
In some respects, keeping josh here may be a public service. Forget about believing his stuff, I can’t get past understanding it – but I love the convoluted self love contained in his prose.
At least here he’s at most a nuisance, at best a good luck charm and source of entertainment – I mean come on – the guy created multiple aliases for his alias just so he could hang here!
post baby, post baby…
Actually this was my original name here
I needed more of a post than that. “Actually this was my original name here”
I got to give it to you, for a couple of words that is an incredibly rich reply, thanks.
Ahh got caught up getting pissed @ Da_bears… forgot to post, covered C @ 3.70 (shorted @ 3.72)
Well I guess you lose since it doesnt bother me. Can I ask why such not going for a bigger hit instead of a .02 gain.
Anybody know what this comment is suppose to mean? I cant understand it
Why did you cover? You get stopped out?
MTLQQ 0.585
CYCC is perking up .. been in there a while but she’s shaping up.. though follow thru has been lacking thus far
Sold half $JASO 5.25, half $ALY $2.76
Sold other half ALY $2.75
Swings later today?
if the market closes lower or I lose any money today Josh should be banned … AGAIN !!!
Covered BGC at 34.81,2
Sym tri forming on SPX (since about 3:30) I’d buy if it wasn’t 10 from the close
Sold $JASO 5.26, bought $LIZ $3.90
DRL is turning up might be interesting for some folks – I’ll be hanging on to MBI, RND, DRL, HBAN, SAY into the close – down about 1% for the day. Pretty bad considering I only had a little less than 20% long. Most of my cash available tomorrow.
LEAP forming a nice hammer
ok thats it. Got my 2% for the day. 95% cash.
Added $PCBC too $2.69
out of STSA
in cash.
LEAP is not leaping anymore… stock retracing back to the lows after earnings
Whoa, one of my charts shows DRL spiked 10% at the close – don’t see it in my portfolio though.
now its there
was out for a bit .. Cramer must have pumped C … sold 4.03
Hey CA,
Whats your position size like for these $1-3 names?? eg 2% of overall portfolio.
Also how many positions do you normally put on at a given time do you have a max. number??
Thanks in advance. Keep up the good work.
Taking charting requests on twitter. Not HERE.
AIG acting up again based on supposed ‘profits’… first in seven quarters
JOBs report better then expected … buy’em!
Pissant my puts were down 10% yesterday. Think my SLV were still up. Anyways GLD puts got to be up so far today. By the way I am leaning towards buying ~930 SPX. Only buying I will be doing if I do so is in gold/silver
Great your making money on GLD puts today, bc its down .5%… but SLV is up 1.8%, so that’ll hurt you more than GLD is benefiting you. You stay down there and buy SPX @ 930… i’ll be playing with the market up here…
P.S. Dont ask me why i cover my shorts and my strategy, i’ll respond to others but not you fucker.
I covered C bc i knew the stock was moving hgiher, and sure enough it closed on the high and then Cramer pumped it 5% more. I’m a daytrader, i play a very quick and fast-pace game.,
Oh I can see. but I am an IT trader with some ST plays. So two ball players in two different parks.