Majority Cash / Possible Bump-and-Run
I feel very comfortable being in approx. 65% cash with a 30% long and 5% short exposure. I am prepared to deal with both an up and down market. I made no purchases yesterday and also removed five of my positions in the morning (FEED, COIN, CPE, NXG, WRES) primarily to build a large cash position. Not bad on the timing part. In the end, I was only down -0.27%, or basically flat, on a day when the SPX dropped -1.32%. This is the result of my morning sales, the FAZ hedge, and gains in TVL and BZ. My worst position was FLOW, down an ohh soo scary -5.9%.
Recently, I’ve heard grumblings from people who won along side me with 20-40% returns. They want more and are no longer satisfied with 5-10% gains. Well, unfortunately, you can’t play $1 stocks forever. It’s one of those strategies that work in certain situations (like the past 2 months). Many of the names I played will go back to $1 or out of business. Don’t get greedy up here, raise cash and/or add a hedge and lock in profits whenever you get the chance.
As for the general market, I am very cautious. One of my short conditions may have been met today via the exhaustion bearish gap up and it was accompanied by massive volume (look at 7-month SPX chart). This kind of volume has been associated with bottoms, but it can also mark tops. Pullback volume should be much lower. In the past, however, tops were marked by decreasing volume which means that this could mark an initial phase of a blow-off top. I wouldn’t surprised since we are up 34% from the March bottom.
A bearish scenario would be a “bump-and-run” reversal shown in my amateur diagram below. This occurs when a stock/the market (I’ll use market) releases itself from it’s primary support and simply runs up too far, too fast. It consists of 3 phases: the lead-in, bump, and run. The lead-in is the ‘normal’ trend support that the market has been following. The bump is when the market makes a sharp advance, leaving a ‘pocket of air’ between it and the support. The run is when the market rolls over to revert back to the mean. Before it rolls over, the consolidation looks like a normal pullback. Something to keep in mind.
The COMP has broken down from the 200-day on it’s highest volume since November. Not good at all. I expect a lot of whipsaw around this area. Fair warning.
Long holdings are now as follows: AHD, BZ, CNO, CNXT, EMKR, FLOW, HGSI, TVL. Few of them will be sold in the morning, but I wouldn’t know which ones until I see how they act.
Great charts and analysis. As ever. Thanks.
Sci-fi sea monkey body armour (sic) cool, too.
good time to bail. you have done very well in this bear market rally. timing is impeccable something i have not had
Might I suggest some Conan?
To crush your enemies, to see them driven before you, and to hear the lamentations of their women.
Josh-
Don’t worry about it. People will rip you to shreds for your market calls, but who cares? This site has more douche bags then the healthcare isle at Walmart. Just learn from your mistake(s). What would you do differently next time and why? Your thesis WILL prove correct (not sure about your ultimate target) it is just a matter of “when”.
re: pictures
Makes you seem like a 12-year old but otherwise, great charts. I was wondering how you drew your lines so straight?
Charts are great as usual..Battle scene is fantastic..sword of fire..and I m not 12 just a middle age ex grunt
You are really into this devil stuff, huh?
Got any tips? LOL
I am thinking about putting a short on JCP as a hedge to my long bias…consumer discretionary has sky rocketed in this rally.
Sold CNXT $1.31 (cash raise)
ca,
nice call on bz, need you to pump it up some more
Hey CA… what is your twitter address?
Bought MTSN $1.35
Sold AHD $3.01
got MTSN @ 1.37
Sold CNO $2.16
looks ur planing for weekend party…taking profits
Sold EMKR $1.33
Fook – @WeeklyTA
I thought I’d try and contribute: what do we think of AXTI? Might be starting to setup nicely soon….
jscott-too low volume.
Current Allocation: 77% cash, 20% long, 3% short
If by the devil, you mean the Creature from Jekyll Island, then it’s a big fat NO. I’d starve first.
CA,
whats your take on SSG(Ultra Short Semis)…seems to have broken a multi month downtrend line on volume…
TIA
XING looks interesting to me. Took some 1.97. Don’t know if its imminent … but I like the trend & volume.
GMO? volume may not be there, 1.71 bought just a nosh
FITB
Fly guy – I’ll wait for a pullback, if it happens.
Juice- I’ll give XING a ‘possible’
Same thing with GMO, ‘possible’
HBAN
AGO
AXL
MTSN rocking……
Bought PWAV $1.16
Gonzo…
some of these flags are rocking today but I’d be wary of one that’s already up 149%.LOL
Momentum divergence forming on 5 min MTSN. CA, do you pay heed to these indicators on spikers like this?
CA,
thanks for PWAV
checkout CNB over 1.20
GKK thru the 200MA may run also
Gonzo…
I was wrong, holy smokes!
I think RZ has potential .. one of these dayz .. bought a little, 4.21
Bought SPRD $1.79
Anyone watching PQ?
I was looking at SPRD a few days back. Lost sight of it. Very interesting, but I think you’ve got to be quick with that one.
i really like that sprd chart…conslidated and not breaking above 200 MA…CA i know you like it since you’re in it but what’s your confidence level here? do u have a big position?
BEXP looking good.
WNC…
CA? RC? Beuhler?
Check out NGD
Bought ABK $1.56
Long ABK spec since few days back expecting a rally of the stress results and was disappointed about to sell until this morning. Now the question is get out by the EOD or hold till Monday after the earnings hmmmm ?
CA,
sitting on nice move in BZ – great pick again, thx… what targets do you have for BZ ?
ABK earnings might be “less worse” or “more betterer”…depending on how CNBC wants to spin it..
2 FlyGuy yeah this is looking more and more less like a trade of fundamentals and technicals, but rather as a daily crap shoot game …. I will probably see if it trades higher roday (which I doubt at this point as it seemed to ran oout of gas at 1.61) and unload half of my position and let the other half ride …. sounding more like a gambler then a trader each ongoing day
Bought GKK $2.42
CA,
just an observation….these little guys aren’t running like they have been after breaking out…
Fly- I agree, it shows why CA has raised cash (so have i). This is getting excessive, without a pullback in the market and these little guys. They could become very exhausted and pull back hard.
Be careful to all! TVL ripping!
AXL more………
DPTR…….?
SELL YOUR SOULS!
NDAQ….
ABK did not rip, CA what did you see that made you went for it at 1.56, this is one of the very few that I see in the last two months that it did not rip after you bouhgt it…
SOULED!!!
GKK smells like FIG
im out from MTsN……nice profit..thanks CA
abk didnt rip because it has volume and cant be moved like the rest
CA-you are a devil worshipper! I am going to burn you alive and all your vodoo idols!! PQ is a cash cow on big dips, at least for now.
I take you are holding ABK over weekend into earnings…
CA sold his soul a looooong time ago, ala Robert Johnson.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_Johnson_(musician)
Noone can be so good, without making a deal with the devil
THE GREATER DAEMONS BLESS ONLY THEIR MOST WORTHY SERVANTS.
CA is the best there’s ever been!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S6uADPVzXFU
TO THE FOUR GODS OF CHAOS: KHORNE, THE LORD OF HATE AND RAGE, NURGLE, LORD OF DEATH AND SUFFERING, SLAANESH, THE LORD OF PLEASURE AND DESIRE, AND TZEENTCH, THE LORD OF CHANGE AND FORCE.
THE FIRST WAR OF ARMAGEDDON IS COMPLETE. THE EMPEROR OF MANKIND HAS RETREATED TO TERRA, HOME OF THE IMPERIUM. THE GREATER DAEMONS, YOUR CAPTAINS OF THE CHAOS LEGIONS HAVE DEFEATED THE IMPERIAL GUARD AND THE EMPEROR’S SONS. PRAISE BE TO THE BLOODTHIRSTER, THE GREAT UNCLEAN ONE, THE KEEPER OF SECRETS, AND THE LORD OF CHANGE. OUR LEGIONS ARE FAST APPROACHING THE TERRA HOMEWORLD AND D’RACYN, THE PLANET KILLER, IS ALREADY DEFEATING THEIR OUTER ORBITAL DEFENSES.
I HAVE ACCEPTED YOUR OFFER TO BECOME THE WARMASTER OF THE CHAOS LEGIONS, COMMANDER OF THE FORCES OF THE EYE OF TERROR, PRIMARCH OF THE LOST AND THE DAMNED, AND THE HERO OF THE FALLEN.
I HAVE CHOSEN ABADDON, THE DESPOILER, TO LEAD THE BLACK CRUSADES. I HAVE CHOSEN EIGHT COMMANDERS TO LEAD THE TRAITOROUS LEGIONS IN YOUR NAMES: ANGRON, MASTER OF THE WORLD EATERS, MAGNUS THE RED, MASTER OF THE THOUSAND SONS, MORTARION, MASTER OF THE DEATH GUARD, FULGRIM, MASTER OF THE FALLEN CHILDREN, LORGAR, MASTER OF THE WORD BEARERS, PERTURABO, MASTER OF THE ALPHA LEGION, NOSTRAMO, MASTER OF THE NIGHT LORDS. WE ARE MANY. WE ARE ONE. WE ARE LEGION.
I BESEECH THEE, OH GREAT ONES, SEND FORTH TYPHUS, HERLAD OF NURGLE, LUCIUS THE ETERNAL, FABIUS BILE, KHARN THE BETRAYER, AND AHRIRMAN, MASTER SORCERER, ALL CHAMPIONS OF CHAOS!
ACCORDING TO THE POLL ABOVE, I OFFER UP TO YOU 20 WORTHY SOULS TO ACCEPT YOUR MANY GIFTS: THE DOOMBOLT, NURGLE’S ROT, LASH OF SUBMISSION, WARP FOCUS, TWISTING PATH, THE AURA OF DECAY, PLAGUE WIND, ACQUIESCENCE, FIRE STORM, SIREN OF SLAANESH, WEAVES OF FATE, AND THE MARK OF CHAOS.
13 SOULS ARE “THINKING ABOUT IT”. WE SHALL CORRUPT THEM WITH THE RUBRIC OF AHRIMAN AND CAST THEM WITH THE STORM OF CHANGE. GRANT THEM FORGIVENESS FOR THEIR LOYALTY TO THE EMPEROR’S ANGELIC ARMY.
52 SOULS SHALL BE DESTROYED, STUBBORN LOYALISTS OF HIGH TERRA. THEY WILL BE CAST INTO THE EYE OF TERROR WHERE THEY WILL BE TORMENTED BY YOUR DAEMONHOSTS.
THE HORUS HERESY IS UNDERWAY. THE SECOND WAR OF ARMAGEDDON SHALL BEGIN QUICKLY.
FYI- I WILL BE BUYING A LOT OF STOCKS ON MONDAY.
JOHN get down with the big bud .
not only does CA have impeccable stockpicking skills, he knows that “CAPSLOCK IS CRUISE CONTROL FOR COOL“
ummm…. creepy…..
Weekly Watchlist video: Top 10 @ 10pm ET Sunday Night.
Interestingly, people think that I need people this blog to buy stocks for them to break out.
Well, that’s the dumbest thing ever.
My $1-3 picks will not be publicly posted for as long as I see fit. They will no longer be included in any videos, including today’s video.
Honestly, I don’t have to post shit, and I don’t fucking care. I’ll make money only for myself and the tabbed bloggers. Fuck off.
John, there will always be losers that can’t make the same mental jump I did (as have many other grateful posters). These losers are jealous and foolish to a fault. They are punishing themselves every day – I’m guessing the same losers posted something like that on the Fly’s blog. They are certainly deep in the loss column.
Applying what I’ve learned from you over the last several months – not just buying after you post – my portfolio is up 60% since 4/1, and almost 30% so far in May. Using concepts I learned here I bought TWI (7.11) on 5/7, FITB (4.97, and HBAN (4.05) on 5/6. I closed out FITB and HBAN for ibankcoin-like egregious gains Friday.
Not boasting – that’s not my thing – I’m just pointing out that I never would have even looked at the market this way until reading your stuff and others posting here. Those monkeys may just not be capable of getting it – like I said earlier, I know you’ve been an apt student of the market for a long time and your time has come. Theirs will never. Their vanity makes their minds closed and small. Waste not a moment more on them.
Ladies and Gentlemen, the Chart Addict is taking his ball and going home! Did not expect that.
amen, bill
From now on, I will list the IP addresses and personal info of anyone’s comments that have no business being on my blog. They will also be deleted without delay. Too extreme? Fuck. You.
You really thought I was just going to just sit back and take your shit? Wrong. My 150%+ YTD gains piss on your portfolios. There will be no more bullshit on my blog, and I will actively make sure of it.
The only purpose of my blog is to make money. I do not care if you join me or not, that’s your call, but don’t step in here, in my fucking house, and talk shit if your performance sucks horse cock.
This is a military dictatorship, deal with it. I’m done fucking around with idiots. This shit ends now.
C.A.,
You’ve done a great job with this blog…and,obviously, a large number of folks appreciate your efforts.
Don’t let a few jealous haters drag you down. Avoid the dark side.
Good for you… These tools may help.
http://www.iplocation.net/
http://www.ip2location.com/
With you 100% on that shit CTA
Martial law has been declared on this blog. Effective immediately.
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Give Em’ an acid enema C/A. Fuck Haters!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tYaki2ZvhSE
I will say, no ip’s will be posted on iBC. So don’t worry.
As far as all the hating is concerned: it is a sign of blogging success. Embrace it CA and give me their IP’s for we shall ban them forever and beyond.
Management.
CA: did some jealous douchebag dick you to the SEC or something? it’s pretty obvious on price action that the stocks aren’t pump-and-dump, but rather legit technical breakouts because of their sustained prices.
Nope, but if someone wants to accuse me of manipulating $1-3 stocks, then I’ll be more than happy to fight him in court. I will also bring forward a countersuit.
damn straight, accusation without proof is libelous.
Fuck them haters, if they don’t want to make money, its their fuckin problem, your penny stocks are the shit.
Please help us bank more coins with your post!
ah, the blogodrama. both ca and his blog readers need to lighten up. (on the booze fueled postings)