I’m still not convinced. That was a terrible rally with too much weakness on low volume. Was that a rollercoaster ride or what? You either sat in cash, day traded, or sat through it all. I told you. If we didn’t get a 4-5% up day today, then the chances for the market’s survival diminish significantly.
At one point, I made back my +27% gain from Monday (+ more), but my December gain now stands at +6% at the close. I cut out all of my leverage intra-day and added 25% long positions as a hedge (financials) while scapling this damn market to offset a total evaporation of paper gains. I’m waiting for a secondary entry point tomorrow on any massive breakdown.
On the sentiment side, Bill Miller came out and called a “bottom”. Others paraded on CNBC to call a bottom as well. Too many people are bullish in a bear market. This needs to be cleaned out unfortunately. There cannot be a bottom if there is still optimism. This means Bill Miller has got to go, sorry.
Looking forward, there are two possible formations after today’s action. First, a bear flag. They tend to slope higher, but the breakdown needs to be immediate and sharp after consolidation. Second, we could actually be rounding out (unlikely). This new element sort of changed the risk/reward picture and therefore I had to account for a slightly bullish case within 10 mins of today’s close. However, I am still majority net short (75% short/25% long).
Expect some massive resistance at the 20-day (presently) and 30-day MA’s (coming up). No joke. I will use my reserve margin (100%) plus extended institutional credit to (200%) short the living daylights out of this hellish market when I feel comfortable doing so. That point will be a roll over to the downside, breaking the “blue line” in the 10-day chart. I’d like to point out Danny’s post. His LoBV and Buy/Sell Strength charts look bearish as hell.
And you haters thought I lost real money today. LOL, please. I never had a losing month this entire year and December 2008 isn’t going to break that. You can keep dreaming for my demise. I shall make note of when I do max out on one side (preferable short) as I have the use of massive leverage to bring me back to my +27% on any real confirmatory action.
This is all true unless someone proclaims the Second Coming or a New Paradigm, at which time I will switch out to a 400% long position. Or, the SPX breaks out and closes above 900 in which the above will still apply.
SPX 1-day
SPX 3-day
SPX 10-day
SPX 6-month
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Well that is depressing. Good work, I like your tab. I am bullish for another week or so, then its time to load up on SRS and TWM again.
Good job. Yesterday and today were for sheeples. Break DOWN tomorrow.
Too much hope, not enough reason. The charts got penis slapped, midday. Good charts though, keep up the good work son.
That is all.
Kind regards, best wishes, and all the best,
mdawsz
And you haters thought I lost real money today.
Don’t get a (haterz) complex. Pride though, especially hyper-leveraged pride, in a volatile market such as this, does carry inordinate risk. (Ask McClendon) You have a great many quality tools at your disposal, a seemingly sharp mind being one of them. Don’t let those assets become your undoing. Old bold traders, and all that.
are patterns like flags or rounding bottoms or whatever 100% reliable? if not, do you know the % of reliability of those patterns? if you do, how do you keep up with the changing percentages? if you do not know the percentage of reliability of the patterns, what gives you the faith in the patterns?
if you do know the percentage of reliability, which are the most reliable patterns?
Broadening Bottom (possible) –
Average Rise/Decline: -21%
Breakeven Failure rate: 9%
Change after trend ends: -35%
Pullback frequency: 44%
Rank: 12
Inverse H&S (possible) –
Average Rise/Decline: 30%
Breakeven Failure rate: 4%
Change after trend ends: -33%
Pullback frequency: 65%
Rank: 6
Flag (likely) –
Average Rise/Decline: -25%
Breakeven Failure rate: 0%
Change after trend ends: 40%
Pullback frequency: 44%
Rank: 1
it’s a great site isn’t it? Hey, I updated my post with some great charts at the bottom, a must see, no shit.
A Rounding bottom?
That sounds like my wife’s ass…and no, she’s not fat.(it’s all good)
So, basically, we could get screwed to the upside tomorrow, or go back to the bear’s cave?
I think there will have to be some really bad news to make it work. Hopefully, Hank Paulson will go live towards the end of the trading day, and give a mumble speech.
I hear the automakers are gonna get the un-greased fist on financing by Congress….maybe that will be bad enough news?
That might help turn it back around (and down)
I’m ready to go with the Chart Addict and leverage to the downside…to quote:
“Looking forward, there are two possible formations after today’s action. First, a bear flag. They tend to slope higher, but the breakdown needs to be immediate and sharp after consolidation”
Immediate and sharp…oh, how I already miss those days!
100% cash and ready to fling monkey turds at Jim Cramer.
ok, you want your rounded bottom? You’ll get it very soon.
nikkei finished negative, futures look grim…im wondering if we have a major gap down to sell my iETFs and wait to get them cheaper, any thoughts?
It’s difficult to tell at the moment. Futures are down only -1%. That’s nothing.
Soo close. The push is on to 900, it is within the grasp of bulls. After 910 we could get a trend up day. Bulls will break the back of the higher low pattern friday if they don’t get it thursday morning. Moon smiles down.
Fuck. Bears will break the back whatever nevermind. Moon.
Actually maybe there’s more higher lows even with a bloody friday, real bulls gotta stop this 90 business. Futures will get funky tonite
This market is the best trading environment I have ever seen.Banking huge coin on the volatility.I think we will close Monday’s gap then come crashing down from there.
The past two days have been very simple to trade,
1.Get long 10:00 am to 11:00 am ring the register.
2. Short lunch time break down, while PPT is having lunch,
cover by 1:30 pm,before PPT gets back from lunch.
3.Get long 2:00 pm until the close, while PPT is recklessly spending your tax coin pumping the market.
Shit I did it again. Real bears lol
TCA – Where did the hater’s comment come from? Maybe you should take a couple of days off this weekend? 🙂 BTW keep up the good work.
There cannot be a bottom if there is still optimism. This means Bill Miller has got to go, sorry.
This has become Common Wisdom, no? And with the profligacy of opinion asshats in the financial media, just in the last ten years alone, don’t you think there will always be some asshat calling a bottom at every turn, and at some point, that asshat will be right, if only by chance?
Logic dictates.
I would pay greater attention to the overall bearishness on this site, and on Twitter.
That gives me some comfort, as well.
____________
Trust me, fucker… now that you’re hot shit — you’re going to turn into another fucking Cramer.
Seen it all the time.
First post: I made 26% in one day!
Second post: I lost half of that…
Third post: I’m still up 6%
Fourth post: Now I’m doubling up…
Fifth post: I’m going long!
Fly’s a fucking crazy lunatic but your reign of greatness is over. I have yet to see anyone consistently call the markets real time with conviction. So seriously — I can tell you are no humble motherfucker and I’m just waiting for it.
My guess is, when that 26% profit gets completely erased… you won’t say a fucking word. But if you do — I’ll give you credit.
Just won’t hold my breath.
he is only 24. he will learn. he also has talent. keep it up kid.
You all criticize, but sound like Kramer. If you think you will do better than John, go to covestor and set up your picks and lets track em. I bet none of you are up 6%+ percent for the week. It is easy to criticize and post moves after the fact or talk in broad terms. Put your money where your mouth is or shut up.
Big WAVE 5 Taking down the market if not today then tomorrow!
wow, what is with the haters.
i’ve been following john’s posts before he joined this site and he’s been amazing.
watch the market tank today. flag looks broken
If your bullish you actually want excessive pessimism. The majority opinion needs to be that the market will continue in the direction of the most recent trend . Anchoring views to what has recently transpired is human nature.
The holiday week last week skews volume to the downside. The pattern is OBVIOUS to everyone look five up days on declining volume. Using the SPY… Monday we get a wide range bar on very light volume 370 M which is 100m lighter than the 50 SMA. also Monday closes at the low the probabilty to continue into the AM is fairly high and yet the market couldn’t register a new low volume also increased on the SPY to 470M. Wednesday a continuation day on increasing volume again on the SPY to 520 M. we will see what becomes of the rest of Thursday and Friday…. actually the most bullish case is to hold just below the swing point from last Friday for a couple of sessions to build cause.
The markets appear to want to trade up to the November 4/5 th area. Leadership appears to be coming from GE XHB AMZN
this is a longer term secular bear market and within that context bear rallies do exist and to my way of looking at price and volume we are potentially setting one up here. The shakeout low print on November 21 st sets up a Wyckoff spring.
If the market can handle the bad news out of Detroit and the employment numbers then folks will all be able to short from better prices.
Finally the gap away from the Oct 3 – 6 at some point in time will be revisted if only to test it as resistance.
trade what you see not what you read and always plan your trade and trade your plan.
ok. a couple folks here are gonna get some shit from me in my post for today. you know who you are.
LOL… it won’t be me. Nice play for hanging in there Addict.
For what it’s worth, it’s good to have haters. That means they covet something you have, or that you’re doing something right.
Don’t sweat it, kid.
Let your numbers do the talking.
_________
I am no lunatic.
I am a fucking stark raving mad maniac.
Hey Chart Addict, I couldn’t get into your tab this morning, kept getting some IE error msg,then it closed my screen. So, after everything settled out this afternoon and I finished some reviews, I tried again and did get in. Funny how much bullshit was flying early on but look who’s laughing now.
Nice job on your Sunday call, Market sure was down today as I think I remember you saying you were waiting for. Maybe you’ll get somemore tomorrow. Keep on Fightin Buddy!
mr. chart addict-.. your insights are much apreciated.
your explained views actually teach.
dont you ever dare to get near rahab.
keep the good work
wtf is rehab?