I am up an incredible +27.72% today – a nice way to start off the month, even though it is an unrealized gain. I mentioned that bear flag/ascending bearish wedge in my previous post. I went short various financials, including JPM, BAC, C, etc. and I still hold those shorts expecting a multi-day extravaganza, also known as a swing trade.
My orders to my students/subscribers included: 1) 8:54PM – 100% cash and alerted that “I am expecting to short this market silly very soon” (exact words) , 2) 10:25AM – short 50% (I went 100% a few minutes later), and 3) 3:19PM – I was 150% short into the close before the sell off. These positions will be held for several days, so a daily gain means very little to me. The goal for this week matters the most.
No, I did not expect a -9% down day. I was looking for a -3/-4% day. That late day selloff was absurd and it fueled round after round of massive panic selling. Meredith Whitney obvious added some fuel to the fire (thanks!). However, this slaughter is not over.
We may get a nice bounce or reaction rally, but that means nothing unless the SPX gains back today’s lost -80 points (or close to it), and this must be done tomorrow for the market to even have a chance.
The volume was extremely low (indicating a lack of transactions…atypical of a accelerated sell off) and I expect additional selling for those that weren’t able to -or- refused to sell today. Today should remind people that we remain in a trader’s market. I stay short for the swing.
SPX 1-day
SPX 3-day
SPX 10-day
SPX 6-month
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Local boy makes good. I’m from DC as well. Grew up in Bethesda. Keep up the great work, Chart Addict.
Aces.
I’m from Bethesda. Right off of Wisconsin ave
Sweet acrimonious shit that is a nice gain! I saw 27% for Dec at WTA.blogspot, and I thought, “gee, that’s a reasonable day.”
I agree totally with your conclusions for the week and look forward to shorting some more.
Holy crap. Nice area. Fricken cool. I’ll have to buy you a beer sometime.
let me know if you’re in the area. We can hit up Union Jacks or some other comparable bar
Chart Addict, what are your favorite technical analysis books? Those charts are awesome, by the way. Thanks, man. I’m 26, and I just started trading two years ago, and am working towards breaking free of my wage-chain sometime in the next five years.
Holy crap, I just realized he gave you Lawrence Taylor as your avatar.
I don’t know if that was to piss off someone who’s likely a Redskins fan, or to piss me off by making an intimation on LT’s noted “tendencies.”
Fucking Jets fans, they are so bitter.
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Absolutely. Will do. Sounds excellent.
That’s a great way to start the month! For me, I’m pretty much done trading for the month after today’s big move. I have to start thinking about tax strategies.
surf the markets, up or down!
-gio-
You have mentioned your students/subscribers several times. Where does one subscribe? Your name isn’t Don Harold, is it?
“I am up an incredible +27.72% today”
You must be taking on massive risk.
I’m lovin’ it. This blog is going to be awesome.
I didn’t like the low volume today, but I suggested puts on the SPY in my last post (they’re up to 6.90 from 3.90 earlier this morning). I’m still with you on the further bearish action. The fundamentals (which don’t technically matter to a TA, pun fully intended) are shitty; so really, based on charting or fundamentals, the market doesn’t look strong. I’d stay away from the television and the newspaper (even the WSJ had some ‘egregious’ articles on the black friday stats–check out big picture for more info).
Thanks for the posts. As always, they’re helpful.
No it’s not. I open up these programs at the end of every month for the following month. Ask me around Christmas time.
Massive risk, but calculated. I scale in 25% to 50% positions during the day, starting with an initial 50% position very early on. This ensures sufficient margin for error (i.e. a bounce).
I didn’t like the low volume too, it should start picking up.
“No it’s not. I open up these programs at the end of every month for the following month. Ask me around Christmas time.”
you have an email, I would like to discuss further…
Spainard – I have a list of books here: http://astore.amazon.com/wtc0c1-20. You don’t have to buy anything from there, it’s just so I have a visual list. I own all of them.
Email: [email protected]
What charting software do you recommend?
Thanks man!
Good stuff. My life is pretty damn busy right now, so it is nice being able to look at your charts (along with others’)without having to make so many of my own every night. Thanks.
Ch-Addict,
1. Excellent book list, I currently have some of the books and have read some of the others, but sold my copies. ACtually just sold my copy of the Elliot Wave book by Neely this morning. Nice selection, major props to anyone who’s read them all.
2. Nice to meet up with someone here who is utilizing a webstore powered by Amazon’s book inventory. I hope one day the same concept will be used in the official IBC library, it would be good for the site and the members. Did you use an Amazon provided API, or is it an official fullblown AWS (Amazon Web Store)? Hope you don’t mind the question.
Boca,
Splain something to me, if you would, Loosey.
Why is today “Cyber Monday” — as in the first day of the “cyber” Christmas shopping season, and not Friday, like the regular, flesh-and-blood, people trampling first day of Christmas shopping?
TIA
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‘Cause people shop the interwebs from work
Suuure, Ricky Gint…
If I recall correctly, the peak online shopping day elevated to the status of Cyber/Black Monday, came from the day that online shoppers rushed onto the Amazon website and brought it down, crushed it from the traffic. It happened on the Monday after the Thanksgiving holiday (I believe in ’98). People took notice and it was a self-perpetuating event because online sites started to schedule their sales around it, rather than compete with the bricks-n-mortar stores on the long Thanksgiving weekend. Now it’s entrenched as one of the biggest online shopping days of the year.
Originally though, I think many people were still using computers at work to shop online, and they all went back to work on Monday morning after the Thanksgiving holiday and tried to do some Christmas shopping online, voila, Cyber Monday was born.
bhh got it in one sentence. 🙂
Most people have internet access at home now but ten years ago the percentage was not as high.
I too am a Bethesda boy, transplanted in Delaware. Good to see a DC boy on the board, what High Schools you two go to?
where was your post prior to this? all i saw was the intro that you had up yesterday??
Delaware Trader — as a Bethesda native, don’t you think it more appropriate that CA (also from DC) feature a more appropriate coke addict football hero in his avatar than the NY Giant nemesis that broke Joe Theisman’s leg in such an egregious and yet gleeful fashion?
Perhaps Dexter Manley would be more fitting?
Maybe a more contemplative (post-brain surgery) shot is in order?
As a last option, there’s always, “Jokey Dexter,” as in this shot of him strangling his dog in a coke cigar-fueled rage.
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Fly, please take note.
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Jake, as soon as my latest bamboo post is up, I expect that you’ll drop by to address your second blessing to the system.
Shed, is that a “yay” or a “nay” on the Dexter Manley avatar?
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nice calls chart man, do we have to pay up to get your calls before you brag about them? Or does ibank subsidize their viewers for wasting our time like a pack of blind asses?
Chart Addict,
How do I subscribe to your emails?
“DEtrade Says:
I too am a Bethesda boy, transplanted in Delaware. Good to see a DC boy on the board, what High Schools you two go to?”
Holy crap! Yet another Bethesda native on God’s website? Fricken cool. I’m embarrassed to say I graduated from Walter Johnson High. Anyone driving down Old Georgetown Rd during our football games could see the scoreboard from their cars. “Walter Johnson 6, Richard Montgomery 44” or “Walter Johnson 0, Seneca Valley 77” or…you get the picture. Wow. So we’re up to three now. Anyone else?
The Fly is God.
Jake, I don’t know much about movie and their stars, and I know even less about pro football. My vote is for a Kurt Cobain avatar.
hc – The prior post is in the King of the PG. I’ve been writing there for a full month if you haven’t noticed. My last post as the King: http://www.ibankcoin.com/king_of_the_pg/index.php/2008/11/28/equity-markets-technical-update-11-28-08/
My services are not cheap and they’re not for everyone. You can e-mail me and we can talk: [email protected]
Jake,
Nay on the Dexter avatar. Our junior chart chomper from Bethesda wasn’t even born when Dex was having Phil Simms for Sunday brunch. If the goal is to inflict pain on the Beltwayers via egregious avatars…
Behold!
http://media3.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/photo/2007/09/25/PH2007092500700.jpg
That book inventory contains a lot of books that are horrible.
Which ones specifically don’t you like Q? Or are you just trash-talkin’?
CA:
You forgot to note, the “WTF” action during today’s last half an hour of trade.
I ain’t talking trash. Its just a fact, the majority of those books are shit, and I’m a little disappointed an intelligent fellow like ChartAddict is promoting such useless drivel contained within the majority of those books.
OK, so which ones in particular don’t you like? and which ones have you read? if you think they’re drivel, you formed this opinion by reading them, correct?
The important thing is that you keep on reading. If I can take 1 or 2 ideas out from a book and call the rest of the book 99% trash, then I’m fine with it. The point is to extract as many ideas as you can from every book, no matter how shitty some are.
Their are some GREAT books on that list. The first page is a must-own, every book on it.
I would add to that library books about money management and position sizing, expectancy, etc. Tharp’s Trade Your Way to Financial Freedom woudl be a nice addition.
Fly – corrected.
They’ve become so common, I just became numb to their existence. It’s a common part of life now.
Yea, I’m not finished compiling the book list (I mean’t to do it but didn’t have the time). I have a lot of books to add.
They put up speed camera’s all over the place, fucking MoCo cops. Otherwise, Bethesda is an overall dandy neighborhood.
No way in hell we retest the november lows within 2-4 days.
Anon — Schneider is a great choice, but I was trying to curtail my selection to Beltway NFL related drug addicts.
The only one I could think of was Dexter, who loved his yay-jo as much as my beloved EllTee.
Sean Taylor prolly liked his crack, but it wouldn’t behoove us to besmirch the dead.
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495 is a rollercoaster.
I like your charts. You and Gio add great insights into how to position for this market. FLY just has great contrarian plays like C (though his exits as he cursingly says could be better…), he was the first guy out there pushing C, BAC, GE.
I too believe we are in for a massive gap up or one day rally tomorrow. It will be an awesome time to go solid puts.
Thx again for your contribution to this awesome Site.
The iBC library is back up, on the upper right hand.
I need to update my books too.
Right now I am reading “The Partnership” the story of Goldman Sachs.
Now, people have to find some motivation to read.
Zombie, I too graduated from WJ, crazy, what year you graduate?
Jakegint, maybe a crack head hooker buying Mayor would be a good avatar…
DEtrade — Marion is another good choice, but not an actual member of the Washington Redskins, like Dex was.
It’s rumored he scored many free tickets from John Riggins, however.
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DE: Bullshit! This is getting too weird. 1989. You?
I am a little later than that, 2000. That place is huge now, it is probably twice as big since I was there. Mighty MOO!
I grew up in Baltimore county for my non-Adult years.
Chart Addict: At what point would you cover your shorts today? Thanks in advance.
CA: I was also wondering about your shorts. I know you said they are a swing trade, but do you use stops or do you plan on making a decision individually on continuing holding them further sometime today or tomorrow?
I am interested in learning how you trade.
I remain short.
I’ve increased my position to 175% throughout the day.
A rally that exceeds +450 points and closes at that level will give the market a slight chance for survival. Otherwise, I don’t give a damn about this rally.
Thanks for explaining, CA.
I highly recommend the daily VWAP for your charting obsession. It is a very effective indicator of price action strength or weakness in real time as well as potential support or resistance levels.
Chaddict —
Do you put more emphasis on SPX or the Dow? I note you used the SPX above (which I use, along w. the RUT).
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I am aware of the VWAP. I try to keep indicators at a minimum unless there’s some compelling need to use them. I keep it really simple.
Jake – I use everything except the Dow. The SPX is my favorite.
Your preferred charting software CA?
CA – I heard someone recently say that this market would be ready to rally when even the day traders were losing money. So what type of market would that take? It seems action like today would drive everyone nutz except for the day traders. Your thoughts?
Jake are you joking? There isn’t a trader worth his pleather chair that follows the dow.
— price weighted = retarded
— 30 stocks of bullshit, that dont even OPEN at the same time each day.
— incorrect sector weighting
Perhaps Jake follows the choad index?
Danny, are you joking?
30 stocks of bullshit? walmart exxon ibm citigroup jpmorgan mmm american express merk jonhson&jonhson at&t microsoft intel chevron etc.
don’t open at the same time. neither do spx stocks.
both dow and spx should trade in unison, and when they do not, those divergences can be very telling.
bull – I have an institutional platform called Laser II with Genesis Securities. I use that for my trading. As for charting software, I have TradeStation and Metastock. They’re both ok. Find one that best fits your personal needs.
Danny,
No I wasn’t joking. If you followed the thread, the genesis of my query was this quote from Chaddict:
A rally that exceeds +450 points and closes at that level will give the market a slight chance for survival. Otherwise, I don’t give a damn about this rally.
I didn’t think he put much stock in the Dow, but I’m pretty sure he was talking about it in the above context.
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Yogi – I dont know about that. We need some major capitulation for a major rally to begin.
Jake, yeah that makes sense, I interpreted it as an order of magnitude, not anything specific, and to be clear, I wasn’t calling your knowledges into question.
Yes, chivas, I am serious.
I notice you left our the most critical reason — price weighted. It’s not really a discussion, it’s just a fact–the dow is a useless index.
The most critical reason? no, the only reason. you are right it is not really a discussion, and for sure is not a fact. i dont have the time or energy to expand on the reasons.
kid, study some history.
However you want to argue against it is fine by me, but the dow is an antiquated piece of garbage.
Price-weighted.
There is nothing more to say.
Good job on them “picking” AIG for inclusion et al.
It’s too small, too price-weighted, and too gay.
Hi CA,What’s your opinion about SRS from a technical standpoint?
I’m glad you stated that you are still short – 175%.
Honesty on a big upday. Must be hurting a little here, no?
SRS Sucks from a Technical perspective…got hammered and closed at its lows…hopefully it gaps upward tomorrow…
Kid,
every calculation for different time periods that i have seen is like the one below. i do not have the calculation from day one. i will get it. the main point that i want to make is that the price relationship of this index to the others has historically been important for whatever the reason and that is a fact.
http://www.247wallst.com/2007/05/dow_price_v_cap.html
What the hell happened today?
I placed some shorts late in the day.
This is a bullsh-t market right now.
It was like the big boys couldn’t buy enough, all of the sudden.
This felt like it will carry-over, too.
Any comments, Tech Master?
Brian Shannon’s book, “Technical Analysis Using Multiple Timeframes” is one of the best TA books available.
Damon,
I have noticed over the past few months that after a massive sell off, the next day the PPT comes in at between 2:30 and 3:00 pm and spends massive amounts of your tax dollars pushing the market higher. The reason being that it doesn’t look so bleak to the buy and hold crowd, also for most people who get market data from the newspapers,Wow the Dow’s up +270.00. Little do they realize that the big move took place in the last hour of trade.I wait for these moves, confirmed by volume and short term TA, and jump in for a Quick scalp. Works very well.
Doji,
Thanks for the reply. I appreciate the input.
I have been che3cking out The Chart Addicts posts for awhile now, and he seems to be pretty good at TA.
It seems so bizarre to me when that late day buying kicks in on stocks that didn’t have the same support in the preceding days before.
It seems to be coordinated, at the very least.
It is almost as if there is unlimited funds (on light-moderate volume) to push higher, even into selling.
MOS today was a perfect example. Lowered guidance after the close yesterday, then they just couldn’t get enough of it today, like it had a bulldozer behind it!
I watch that stock daily, and today was not normal….even in an up market, in my opinion.
Watching the last half hour was definitely strange. It seems as though there were some very determined buyers who came in after the spike down with 20 minutes to go for no obvious reason.
Maybe the “obvious reason” is they recognize a significant bottom – maybe THE
bottom- has already been made.
you should get used to the wacky shit during the last hour of every day.
What’s on the calender the rest of the week?
Honestly, I think we need some really bad news that will shut down this blowhard rally.
I know unemployment #’s will be way up. But that’s a ways off.
Bernake will probably lower rates instead!