iBankCoin
Joined Jun 2, 2014
30 Blog Posts

Shkreli to Stewart: Is it Insider Trading?

Everyone is entitled to their own opinion about Shkreli; the guy is truly polarizing. However, I wanted to take a more calculated view of his KBIO purchase and whether it constitutes insider trading.

As a disclaimer, I’m licensed to practice law, but I chose not to make a career of it due to some of the absurd and contradictory rules and regulations, but that’s for another post.

Insider trading is the buying or selling of a security, in breach of a fiduciary duty or other relationship of trust and confidence, while in possession of material, nonpublic information about the security.

Two theories have been used to create liability for insider trading based on material non-public information:

(1) The “classical theory”: The focus is on corporate insiders and provides that an insider may not trade shares of his or her corporation based on material non-public information in violation of a duty of trust and confidence owed to the corporation and its shareholders.

(2) The “misappropriation theory.” The focus is on outsiders, who do not owe a duty to the issuer or its shareholders, but through obtaining material non-public information, they can be liable for insider trading if they trade on that information in breach of a fiduciary duty owed to the source of the information.

Scenario 1: You’re in line at your local Starbucks, and a man and a woman are in front of you. They mention that they believe getting acquired is the best path forward.  You see “Company A” on their work bags. You end up scooping up shares and short-dated options like a fat guy getting at a bag of potato chips. A few days later, the Company A gets bought out.  You net a multi-million dollar profit. Insider Trading? No. The luck of a leprechaun with a four leaf clover tattooed on his tiny ass? You betcha.

Scenario 2: Your broker hits you up and says “Bro, you should get out of Biotech XYZ immediately because the CFO (who happens to be the broker’s client as well) is dumping her shares. Drinks and charcuterie later.” Insider Trading? Maybe. Situation sounds familiar? It should, this is the cliff notes version of Martha Stewart’s case.

Violations may also include “tipping” such information (the tipper), securities trading by the person “tipped (the tippee), and securities trading by those who misappropriate such information. Please refrain from any “just the tip” jokes; this is a site for gentlemen (and refined ladies of course).

This brings me to the Shkreli and Biestek situation presented before us. If the SEC is going to bring a case, their best route is to go through the classical theory due to Shkreli being an insider. He became an insider once he purchases 10% or more of KBIO shares. As for their potential of going to white collar prison…

Shkreli: His mere act of purchasing shares of KBIO does not constitute insider trading. He had as much information as you or I (as far as we know). Also, saying his mere act of purchasing the shares is illegal is like saying Buffett breaks the law when he discloses his purchases and the stock goes up. Only a true idiot would argue it this way.

However, some may say Shkreli could be found liable under tipper liability. Please note that tipper liability has seen less challenges as compared to the tippee.

Tipper liability requires that (1) the tipper had a duty to keep material non-public information confidential; (2) the tipper breached that duty by intentionally or recklessly relaying the information to a tippee who could use the information in connection with securities trading; and (3) the tipper received a personal benefit from the tip.”

While any decent attorney could make a reasonable argument that Shkreli’s actions met elements 1 & 2, based on the current facts, element 3 isn’t satisfied.

Recently, the Second Circuit in United States v. Newman (2014) involving hedge-fund portfolio managers who had allegedly traded on the basis of material nonpublic information, and in which the Supreme Court declined to hear the appeal petition, ruled that “the personal benefit received in exchange for confidential information must be of some consequence.”

Translation= Friendship isn’t enough.

Biestek: His situation, at first glance, is much closer to crossing the line into insider trading. Newman has outlined tippee liability as the following:

(1) the corporate insider was entrusted with a fiduciary duty; (2) the corporate insider breached his fiduciary duty by (a) disclosing confidential information to a tippee (b) in exchange for a personal benefit; (3) the tippee knew of the tipper’s breach, that is, he knew the information was confidential and divulged for personal benefit; and (4) the tippee still used that information to trade in a security or tip another individual for personal benefit.”

Again, there is nothing to suggest at the moment that Biestek provided Shkreli with any personal benefit, which would clear him as of now. Moreover, Biestek was included in the “group” that bought all of those KBIO shares; it says this in a footnote in his Form 4. This fact alone is likely strong enough for him to avoid any prison time and sweet love.

In sum, while many would like to see these two thrown in the can, it’s extremely unlikely. I realize that Shkreli is not going to win Most Popular in a year book contest, but give the guy credit where credit is due, he’d probably win Most Successful.

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Analyst Report: PayPal Moving Loads of Cash

With Square IPOing today, many will have a renewed interest in the payment transfer space.

If you plan on holding something long-term because you believe there’s “growth”, you must be able to identify not only a company’s current operational drivers, but also any potential positive or negative catalysts, and whether the market has priced these in.

PayPal is one of those stocks that has shown success in it’s current operations, but I believe there are two major growth factors, one that the market hasn’t fully grasped and a separate but potentially even larger one, that will drive PayPal higher.

Strengths & Opportunities:

– First report as stand-alone entity beat consensus earnings estimates, and management reiterated their full-year 2015 guidance of EPS between $1.23-$1.27 and net revenue growth of 15%-18%. Also, has $6.7B in cash.

– Growth in mobile payment activity, with 345M transactions, an increase of 38% YOY. For FY 2014, mobile was 20% of total payment volume, or $46B. In Q1 2015, mobile payment volume had reached $18B , 30% of total payment volume.

Catalyst 1-Mobile: Venmo, a fast-growing service that lets people (very popular with those damn Millennials) send money to each other using a mobile app, will be fully monetized by end of 2016. For Q3 2015, Venmo handled $2.1B in payment volume, which was triple the $700M sent through the app in Q3 2014.

– Acquired Paydiant, which makes mobile wallet technology that powers payment apps for major retailers, restaurants, and banks. More importantly though, it is the force behind MCX, a merchant-owned network (composed of Walmart, Target, CVS, among others) developing CurrentC, aiming to take on Apple Pay and other mobile services. Bought Xoom, which processes mobile international payments.

Catalyst 2-Gigantic Potential Partner: The door is open for PayPal to partner with King of Retail, Amazon. With PayPal spinning away from Ebay, a small competitor that Bezos effortlessly laid the smack down on, and Amazon shutting down its mobile point-of-sale service, Amazon Register, a couple weeks ago, PayPal has game-changing opportunity.

-PayPal also provides the payment infrastructure for popular tech companies, such as Uber and Airbnb.

Spin-offs have a history of doing well due to the ability to focus on a core business.

-Ichan and Klarman started positions in PayPal; good enough for them, good enough for me. Maybe Uncle Carl will give me a board seat?

Weakness & Threats:

-May be too slow getting into the mobile game and has the perception of being more desktop based.

-Heavy competition from major credit card companies, down-round unicorns, banks, and oh yeah, Apple Pay and Google Wallet.

-Valuation is a little high for me, but the discussed capabilities and strategic initiatives, as well as the possible catalysts, justify this price and valuation.

-Amazon gives mobile payments another shot, partners with a competitor, or simply acquires someone.

Price Target: Based on my projected enterprise value, my price target is $46-$48. If they were able to get in bed with Bezos and Amazon, I could easily see $60.

Conclusion: Making an investment decision must involve reading, analyzing, and creating a thesis through multiple sources of information. Anything worthwhile (for all things in life) will never just stare you in the face and involve minimal work. Disclosure: I’ve been long PayPal since early September.

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An American in Europe

As each day passes, I’m finding European markets, specifically countries that are on the Euro (ex UK), to be an attractive investing opportunity.

A detailed analysis was laid out in a prior post (extra plug) (http://ibankcoin.com/boyaj/2015/11/09/overseas-investing-opportunity/). At a high level, my reasons were a strong dollar making America’s exports expensive and European imports cheap, and QE albeit on a smaller scale than ours, will drive up equity prices.

Here are a few others.

First, the smartest bond investor, Jeff Gundlach aka The New Bond King aka Gross Reincarnate Sans Militia Management Style, is highly questioning the logic behind a rate hike.

He recently pointed out that Eurozone nominal GDP, while 0.5% less than US, is trending up, whereas America’s is dropping. Also, inflation (or deflation, depending on what camp you’re in) rates are basically the same. Basically, he’s questioning the logic that the Fed is insistent on tightening while Eurozone is easing.

I’m listening to the guy who manages $80B in assets over a lady that prefers the thermostat at 78 degrees year round and her drunk academic minions.

Second, even though the US market is running to upside despite a FOMC minutes indicating a possible December hike, I am under the belief that European equities will look relatively attractive due to participants speculating that there will be multiple rate hikes.

Lastly, and self-admitted shamefully, is the fact that markets tend to do well in times of war. They are weak with the PROSPECT of war because that brings uncertainty and volatility.

What happened in Paris was disgusting, somber, and gut wrenching. My heart goes out to the victims and families, and there isn’t one logical reason why this type of horror should ever happen.

With that being said, I love to have my cake  and eat it too; I’m all for destroying terrorists and making money, it’s truly a win-win.

I went long FEZ (European Large Cap ETF) today a few minutes before the minutes were released.

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Position Sizing Through Price Targets

One of, if not the most, difficult things to do in investing and trading is deciding on when to sell. Whether it’s cutting a loss or taking a gain, this is when fear and greed really kick in. Buying is the easy part.

In prior posts, I’ve made references to my downside rules; they’re based on a pre-set % loss in either the individual stock or a comparable index, whichever happens first.

When it comes to taking gains, I set price targets and will adjust them as time goes on.

If my price target is hit, then I’ll sell. This is specific to stocks within the Top-Rated and Value (see http://ibankcoin.com/boyaj/2015/11/08/the-value-trap/) categories.

My price targets are calculated by averaging data points, including my projected enterprise multiple, Exodus, and other sources.

I can’t give away all my ingredients (extra 11 herbs & spices), but the absolute key is your thought process in finding your expected value and how margin of safety can be baked into your price target.

For those relatively new to investing, margin of safety is exactly what it sounds like: the delta between expected value (i.e., target price) of a stock and its market price. But how can you be sure you’ve provided yourself with “enough” safety?

This article, http://people.stern.nyu.edu/adamodar/pdfiles/eqnotes/marginofsafety.pdf, had a major influence on my perspective of price targets and margin of safety.

To best summarize and quote the author, “Margin of safety can be restated as a discount to expected value. Expected value is a function of the weighted probability of potential outcomes.”

For calculating my enterprise value multiple, this is exactly what I do. In a nutshell, using the EV multiples of comparable companies, I sum the outcome of the 1st quartile, median, and 3rd quartile multiplied by their respective probabilities. See pg 7 of the article for a functional example.

The complex objectivity comes into play when selecting their respective probabilities/potential outcomes. You must do your research and due diligence to feel comfortable enough to say that your target deserves more weight towards the higher or lower multiple.

Your target’s current products/services, market position, growth prospects, innovativeness, financial strength, management, etc. are all considerations for weighting.

Because the degree of difference between my price target/expected value and current market price is the margin of safety, the higher my margin of  safety, the higher the position size in my portfolio. That’s the vital connection to all of this.

You allocate a large amount of your capital to a position you have confidence in because of the implied limited downside and higher upside. Many hedge funds managers imply this strategy; it’s one of Buffett’s trademarks.

While this post won’t tell you what to buy, it will give you an idea of when to take gains and a framework for making anticipatory tactical decisions as opposed to an emotional response.

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Analyst Report: Gilead Is Straight Dealing

What if I told you that there’s a company that cures Hepatitis C and leader in treating HIV, sells successful Hematology/Oncology, Cardiovascular, and Inflammation/Respiratory drugs, and has a robust pipeline of Phase 2 & 3 products?

Even more intriguing, they’ve increased revenue 37% and earnings 68% in the past 12 months, and has $15.1B in cash.  It trades at a forward P/E ratio a tad under 9, sports a PEG of 0.6, and enterprise value of 7.3x EBITDA (competitor median is 17.8x), all lower than its comparable companies.

Would that be something you’d be interested in (extra Bob Ryan)? If so, look to Gilead to be your preferred [drug] dealer.

Strengths & Opportunities:

-Superior product and dominate market share of Hep C: Analysts estimate Harvoni and Sovaldi bringing in $17B in 2016, while only $2.5B for GILD’s closest competitor AbbVie’s Viekira Pak and Technivie. Less than three weeks ago, the FDA said that ABBV’s drugs may cause serious liver injury, even fatalities, in patients with an advanced liver disease and told them to use warning labels.

– Leader in HIV treatment: Lesser known and advertised, is their 87% ownership of the +$10B HIV market through Stribild and Truvada, as well as others.

-Defending and improving it’s two cornerstones: For Hep C, positive Phase 3 trial results were reported on a combo of Sovaldi and a new experimental drug, which would become the first treatment for all six genotypes of Hep C. Advantage for insurers because no more genotype testing needing, and hence, less costs.

As for HIV, GILD received FDA approval for the fist TAF- based HIV drug, Genvoya, which is as effective as Stribild, but with 1/10th the dosage and less bone and kidney side effects.

-Financial strength: In addition to the figures above, Free Cash Flow (ttm) is $17.9B, $3B more than the closest major pharma. Also, Gilead is basically three times more efficient in producing revenue per employee than similar comps ($3.6M vs. $1.3M for both BIIB and CELG).

-Potential cure for both Hep B and HIV: GILD’s GS-9620 has massive potential. Hep B- Currently in a Phase 2 review and human trial after positive results displaying a “functional cure” in chimps and woodchucks. For HIV, it has shown promising results in Phase 1 review.

Quick science note, GS-9620 aims to “kick and kill,” in which latent viral cells are narced out (drug pun intended) of hiding for immune system can attack DEA style.

-Acquisition in the works? THE major catalyst the market is waiting for. In early September,  GILD announced a $10B debt offering, but already had $7.4B in cash, $1.2B (ST) and $6B (LT) investments, and minimal debt. They bought back shares, trimmed debt, and paid dividends, but you don’t need that much ammo unless your hunting big game.

Weaknesses & Threats:

-Super competitive industry in curing Hep B and C. Merck is coming out with Hep C in 2016 and there is a major race to find cure in Hep B. Current Hep B population is 350M vs. 150M in Hep C.

-Patents expiring (Hep C in late 2017 and HIV treatments starting in 2018), and the potential that the improved cornerstone drugs may not be as commercially successful.

-People will actually be cured; I know this sounds cruel, but it’s the reality of the situation. They will not have returning customers, and customer acquisition cost is expensive.

-Current political landscape and stigma associated with extremely high price of Harvoni. However, compared to Viekira Pak, it’s only $10K more and much safer. Also, tell me a disease that you can recall that has been cured since Polio?

Price Target:

My current price target is $183, which is based a combination of comparable’s adjusted median EV/EBITDA multiple, Exodus, and a couple other sources. In a later post, I will discuss my method in developing price targets/valuations, and through probabilities, how a Margin of Safety is achieved and the impact it has on your position size.

Conclusion: Of all the large caps, I encourage the readers to pitch me on a company that offers a better combo of high upside and low downside. This is by far my largest position in my actively managed accounts.

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Overseas Investing Opportunity

For starters, I have no idea whether the Fed will raise. If I knew, I wouldn’t be dishing that information out free.

What we can do is analyze impacted areas that may imply the market is anticipating a rate hike. When the Friday jobs report came out, the dollar index jumped about 1.10%.

How does this connect to raising interest rates and investing overseas? At a very high level, when interest rates rise, a nation’s currency should rise. Global investors want higher yields, and to get that exposure, securities need to be purchased using the greenback.

When there’s a higher demand for anything (in this case dollars), price goes up (dollar becomes stronger). One could reasonably interpret this as markets pricing in a rate hike.

Which brings me to the attractiveness of investing overseas, specifically Euro-denominated countries (U.K. is excluded). I have two main drivers of this thesis.

First, with a stronger dollar, Euro’s become weaker, but their goods become cheaper. In theory, they should sell more goods.

Second is Draghi & the ECB’s new QE initiative. Euro QE (similar to Euro Disney?) and a potential drop in U.S. exports due to King Dollar’s prowess makes this an attractive investing idea. Yes, Euro QE won’t have the same impact as it did here, but it’s not unreasonable to posit that stocks over there will get a boost.

At the beginning of this year, many money managers we clamoring on CNBC that Europe would out-perform the U.S. They were right for the first half; not so much lately.

I apologize if it’s difficult to see, but as of Nov 9 close, S&P is up 1.25% YTD while FEZ (ETF for Euro Large Cap) is down -2.17% and EZU (ETF for Euro Large & Mid  Cap) is down -0.15%. FEZ is much more concentrated in terms of stock holdings, but another option is to be concentrated by country.

Below is a rough gauge of how the Euro impacts an individual Eurozone member:

Based on the ETFs of the top four countries, here are their YTD results: Germany -3.4%; France +3.3%; Italy +5.5%; and Spain -10.7%.

With Germany down YTD, it shouldn’t surprise that Euro ETFs have trailed. My first thought was the VW must be a huge holding, but it wasn’t.

I’m not recommending to buy up all Euro ETFs you can. And unless you know you’re shit, don’t buy individual companies across the pond.

Whether you want to be a little risky and go country concentrated, or get broad exposure, the risk-reward is there with the threat of a rising dollar and Euro QE.

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The Value Trap

What exactly does value mean to you? Individuals will boast that they “got a good deal” or “it was a steal” if they were able to purchase the same good or service for a lower price as compared to another location or vendor.

This will never happen on Wall Street, and in the odd event it did, this is referred to as an arbitrage opportunity.  Unfortunately, you can’t buy Apple for $87 on the BATS Exchange.

Value also comes in another form: buying a substitute product or service that has the same or even better functions and qualities as a competing product or service, but can be purchased at a lower price.

While difficult to find, these opportunities can be uncovered. As I’ve written before, if these didn’t exist, your favorite hedge fund managers, including the original, sweet Grandpa Warren (extra sarcasm; see Kraft Heinz layoffs) wouldn’t be famous for beating market.

Buyer beware: Merely purchasing something for a lower price does not define value. Nor does it mean transacting for something that is attractive on its surface and promises so much, but at its foundation is broken and/or useless.

Whether your a sophisticated investor, lightening quick trader, or a newbie to the game, you’re aware of the dichotomy growth vs. value stocks.I don’t believe in this categorization; companies that have minimal or negative growth are not valuable.

Value needs growth. If current product demand is slowing, a lack of innovation persists, or the industry is unprofitable, those are legitimate reasons why these stocks have lower multiples and prices.

 

My view is that you have Obvious Growth (traditional growth) vs. Uncovered and Underappreciated Growth (i.e., real value) stocks. A true value stock sells at lower EV/EBITDA or P/E multiple, but has higher revenue and/or profit growth as compared to its competitors.

Or, despite similar industry sales, a company has a lower debt/equity ratio, better ROI or ROC, etc. Also, the company may sell a product or service that market participants do not fully understand.

I dedicate around 20% of my portfolio to these. Price targets are set ahead of time and I take gains once the target is hit. I will sell if the value proposition has changed. Because patience is required, 2-3 purchases creates a full position, but I cut my losses after being down 8%-10%.

These are not easy companies to find. There are millions of intelligent people and even smarter computers who search for these opportunities. You must do your research, learn the industry and the top players, and have a basis as to why the growth is unrecognized.

In my next Analyst Report, I will pitch you on what I believe is the most undervalued stock in the market (extra cliff hanger teaser). For now, I encourage you to share what you believe is a strong value play and the thesis that supports your conviction.

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Analyst Report: Facebook is Still a Buy

Living in Chicago, I rely on the EL Train for transportation. People always have their heads down and hands 10 inches from their eyes. One of my favorite field studies is to quickly glance at their phone screen to see what app they’re using. More often than not, Facebook or Instagram (an often overlooked piece of Zuck’s business) is their preferred choice.

Strengths & Opportunities:

-No. 1 in mobile advertising: For Q3 2015, mobile advertising revenue was $3.4B vs. $985M a year ago (245% YOY increase), while total advertising revenue was $4.3B vs. $2.9B in that period.

-Diverse user base across multiple product platforms:

facebook-statistics

-Financially strong: Despite an increase in costs from a year earlier, their earnings have grown. This signals that revenue is a huge driver of earnings, whereas many companies rely solely on cost cutting measures to support EPS and cash flow.

-Highly intelligent and focused company leadership: Zuckerberg has been there from the start, and has not deviated course.  Sandberg is a powerhouse inside and outside of Silicon Valley.

-China opening up access to the site to its 350M internet users(as alluded Fly alluded to in prior post); also, there are around 500M active users in neighboring Asian nations.  Additional emerging markets in Latin America and Africa offer compelling growth opportunities.

-Developing or purchasing a robust video platform that would allow it compete with either YouTube and/or Meerkat or Periscope.

Weaknesses & Threats:

-Perception of not being “the coolest” social media site.

-Privacy concerns will always persist.

-Tremendously competitive environment for mobile add network, particularly Google developing a stronger presence.

-Twitter getting their shit together.

Price Target: It’s difficult to value Facebook based on traditional metrics such as EV multiples (my preferred method), P/E ratios or DCFs for a variety of reasons, among them being the lack of similar competitors and difficulty of projecting future cash flows. When this happens, a unique yet supportable, approach is needed.

I decided to base their valuation on monthly average users. After a little research and quick calculations on recent public and private (Snapchat & Pinterest) valuation figures, I settled on $100 being a reasonable equity value per user metric.

Based on the graphic above, I considered Facebook’s user base to consist of all four networks, not just Facebook itself. I applied $100 to Facebook and WhatsApp; $70 for Messenger; and $120 to Instagram (premium based on prospects of higher user growth). Additionally, I kept Oculus VR at $2B, the purchase price. After dividing this by shares outstanding, I came up with a price of $152. Keep in mind, they have minimal debt.

Conclusion: Despite the massive user base, Facebook still has additional growth opportunities as an individual site and entire company.  Instagram, in particular, still has plenty of room to expand; just wait until all those Millennials have kids, if they decide to. Potential expansion in China is too big to ignore, and video is still an immature industry that will dominate faster than you’ll expect, sort of like Facebook has.

Disclosure: I’ve been long $FB in both IRAs and actively managed brokerage accounts for a while now, and will not sell unless story drastically changes.

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How I Hedge

I am under the belief that hedging can be accomplished through multiple avenues. Some may short stocks. It’s not that I am against shorting (unless I’m long that particular company), it’s just that I’m not wired nor trained to analyze with that outlook.  I’m a glass half full guy who is always thirsty.  Clearly, there are many successful short sellers and bears.  Investing and trading is a zero sum game after all.

Other methods include, purchasing protective puts (which essentially act as insurance for your holdings), however, these can add up and become a drain on your capital as time passes.  Additionally, holding a small amount of an inverse S&P 500 ETF, anywhere from 3%-7% of your portfolio depending on your medium-term outlook of the market, is a logical choice.  And yet some endorse using a gold ETF.

While all of these are reasonable techniques, I prefer to go with what I have dubbed the Randy Moss method: straight cash homie.  Cash is wonderful way to hedge for many reasons. In bull markets, it allows you to purchase companies that have not participated in going to the upside. Also, you’re able to be more selective in the companies you want to add to your portfolio because your capital isn’t entirely invested.  In bear markets, there’s the obvious advantage in that you’re not loosing money. More importantly, you can buy market leaders and high growth companies on at discount, or lower your cost basis and add onto long term holdings only to sell a small portion of it when the stock goes back up.  Confirm that these were brought down because of the overall market, not because of company-specific factors.

Cash is important facet of my actively managed portfolios (not IRA’s or 401K’s), and one of the main asset categories.  Those groups include  Top Rated; Value (or more specifically,  unrecognized Growth or underappreciated Growth);  High Growth, Short-Term Trades (a very small portion of my portfolio and I defer to the guys on iBankCoin and in Exodus for these ideas); Moonshots; and Cash. In future posts, I will discuss each of these asset categories in detail including rules related portfolio allocation limit, cutting losses and taking gains, the types of companies I look for, etc.

This post is all about the Benjamins. I try to hold a range of 20%-30% in cash.  The percentage depends on a multitude of variables, including but not limited to, market conditions (trends in market breadth, credit spreads, specific market leaders); economic (financial condition indices, consumer spending, PMI and ISM readings, employment); corporate activity (particularly, what are they using their capital for- is it for CapEx, or more buybacks?); and volatility (extreme ranges of VIX readings as well as Fear and Greed Index, these act as contrarian indicators).

I’m sure a sizable amount of people reading this post will think I am dedicating too much of my portfolio to cash for their liking. I’ll be the first to admit that this is a fairly conservative strategy. However, this is strategy that Seth Klarman (go on Amazon and see how much “Margin of Safety” goes for) and Carl Icahn have implored, and who am I to argue with them? Reviewing my annualized returns, it turns out that when I have been disciplined like this, my returns are the highest and vice-versa.

Many of my future posts will discuss portfolio balance and asset allocation strategies, and a running them you’ll notice are rules that guide my buying and selling process. I need this discipline, otherwise my emotions will get the best of me. That can’t happen in investing or trading, ever. We’re all guilty of it (me included, multiple times), but the aim is to make our selves better, and hopefully wealthier.

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Allow Myself to Introduce Myself

I’ve been contemplating what topic I should select for my first blog post, with ideas ranging from commentary on the hottest financial news story to what stock I believe may be under or overvalued. Then it hit me; the writers that demand a permanent tab on my iPhone are the ones that I can personally relate to the best.

With that being said, I want to provide a little insight to my fellow iBankCoin contributors and the readers as to what has driven me to take up an interest in finance, investing and the stock market; my strengths and weaknesses; my investment approach; and what topics/articles I will write about. My end goal is that you will learn a little from me, but I will learn much more from you.

As someone who is dubbed a “Millennial”, we are notorious for being weary and quite frankly pessimistic about the stock market. However, from a young age, I’ve always been captivated by the market and commerce. This fascination stems from two familial influences. First, my mother and father always encouraged me to learn about business and how money works (to the novice investors and traders, yes this is a skill).

Second is my late aunt, who was an avid investor and trader. I can still remember sitting on her couch with my siblings, and the CNBC ticker would constantly be running at the bottom of the television. I assume this is some sort of ingenious hypnosis method that the Illuminati have perpetrated.

Switching gears, I want to lay out from the start that technical analysis and catching the short-term moves are not my strengths. I will defer this sort commentary and analysis to the first string contributors on iBankCoin (Fly, OA, Raul, RC, BlueStar, and Mr. Thaler). They also happen to be gifted long-term investors that provide transparent fundamental outlooks better than anyone.

When I do get the occasional itch to make a quick trade, which is a small part of my portfolio strategy arsenal to obtain additional alpha, I read their posts, and analyze their recommendations via the Technical and Hybrid score and the Community Notes in Exodus (extra product plug).

The skills that I will bring to the table are fundamental analyses and a long-term outlook on individual stocks, industries, and the economy. I want to point out up front that I do not limit myself to the traditional undervalued stocks with low P/E’s, high EPS’s, etc. In this type of multiple expansionary environment and vast amount of information available, the majority of these companies deserve these multiples because they operate a maturing business model, or they are simply not a growing entity.

However, we all know Mr. Market can occasionally visit the funny farm and loose his mind. If he didn’t, then there would be no reason why the smartest people on Wall Street wouldn’t just buy and hold the S&P 500 ETF. Exhibit A: Look at Tepper’s holdings. I search for catalysts or analyze current/future products and services that the market has yet to understand its impact.

My articles and post will include topics on the rules I implore and also learn about as it pertains to portfolio positioning, risk management, and asset allocation.  This is for both general brokerage accounts, which I manage for myself and others much more actively, as well as retirement accounts (both IRA and 401K). One area I hope to get a lively discussion on is whether individual securities, ETFs, or a mix should be held in a Roth or Regular IRA.

I will have a weekly feature, in which I will analyze an individual stock (whether I own it, I am considering to own it, or receive suggestions from the readers), provide a price target, key stats and multiples that I used to derive the price and investment thesis, and SWOT analysis (extra McKinsey); the difference here is that my reports will be as if a Goldman or JPM’s analysts decided to provide their unfiltered opinion, eliminate conflicts of interest, and throw in humor, wit and sarcasm. Finally, I plan on relaying my real life experiences and interests while providing a financial and business spin on them.

I want to personally thank The Fly for selecting me to add content to this already top notch site; it’s an honor and privilege to work with you and I pass the same message along to my fellow iBankCoin writers who have taught me along the way.  In return, I promise to provide rich content that not only enlightens, but also entertains.

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