The bulls have won. All is well in the world. All those crazy deflationary fears from a few weeks ago have disappeared. The charts look fantastic. There are no more bears left according to Investor Intelligence Survey clocking in at 80.84% bulls. In fact we are at a bullish percentage higher than 2007 (76.26% bulls) and 2000 (67.84%bulls) tops. What could go wrong? After all, the bullish percentage was 80.31% at the 1973 top so obviously we are going higher. The super duper smart hedge fund community agrees as their net exposure is at highs again. Why would anyone not be long in front of the ECB QE which begins this week? Additionally, stock buy backs reached a crescendo in February at $98 billion and Greece is but a distant memory. Then there is the March bullish seasonality that has been sited. Since the market trouble in January, a stunning 21 Central Banks have eased including China yesterday. Its a good thing they all eased because clearly its working as the SPX is a whopping 14 handles above its December high. Only a complete jack-ass or mad man would short this market.
On Friday I initiated shorts……..I am that jack-ass and mad man.
Markets never top on bad news. I only see good news. Additionally, a very special (double secret probation) indicator is flashing warning signs just like it did in September.
The above picture and quote is Irving Fisher who was a famous economist from the 20’s and 30’s. His quote was curiously timed.