A long term trend that began post financial crisis is civil unrest stemming from slowing global growth and huge government debt burdens causing the tyranny of the state to confiscate wealth via taxes and financial repression. This is going to be a trend that will be accelerating over the next 2-10 years. Governments across the globe will be trying to cling to their power as the super debt cycle implodes. The elites and the plebs will be warring as the plebs grow tired of austerity. The way to play this trend is TWTR! I am long term bullish on this trend and as a former growth stock manager this is a must own stock for the long haul. Valuation is high so this is not a trade and should be accumulated on a dislocation. I am bearish the market near term but this would be a stock on my buy list after a sell off.
Fundamental case: The Arab Spring was a Twitter and Facebook revolution. The conflict in Gaza is a Twitter war. The teenage bobbsey twins at the US State Department were using Twitter posts as evidence to blame Russia for the downing of MH17. Now civil unrest is coming to the USA via #Ferguson. The mainstream media is being disrupted by this social media app. The #Ferguson story was broken on Twitter and the mainstream media is behind the eight ball here. This app makes the participants of an event all free lance journalists that can and do scoop the story. The alternative media is on equal footing with the main stream media via this app. I anticipate that Twitter will get a huge bump in its metrics as people at cocktail parties are embarrassed by their lack of knowledge of what is happening by those who actively use the Twitter app. If you rely on the NYT for your news you will increasingly be made to look like a fool. Trendies don’t like to look dumb so I would suspect more engagement during episodes like this and maybe even more subs.
An example of the power of Twitter: InfoWars reporter Staff Sergeant Joe Biggs captured on film an officer pointing an M4 rifle in the face of a Journalist and the officer said “I will f-cking kill you.” When asked his name he said “go f-ck youself.” Joe Biggs tweeted this event out and then the film later. It has gone viral. The officer is now known as #officergof-ckyourself. The ability of the MSM to control the message and be a tool of the state is officially dead. The truth of an event is more likely to be found on Twitter. Increasingly more and more people will turn to Twitter during these types of events.
I was originally a skeptic on the Twitter business model but I have been converted. If I was still running $14 billion in Growth stocks I would initiate a 50 BP position with an eye towards getting this up to a full 3%-5% position over time. I am bullish on revolution, war and civil unrest long term and as a result long term bullish Twitter. Buy the dips on this one for long term holdings only. If you want to trade TWTR then I defer to others on this site better at it than myself (OA).Comments »