The 10 Month MA just Crossed over the 20 Month MA last week by 3 S&P points. The last 2 times that this occurred was on January 2001 and April 2008 where the declines in those bear markets really began to accelerate to the downside. Will this time be different? In my humble opinion no it will not. By the way, when this death cross occurred in 2001 and 2008 the Fed had already reversed course and had started easing. My guess is that after this current rally ends (days to weeks) we should see a rather nasty sell off that will scare the living daylights out of most of us. Even if the Fed eases I don’t think they can stop the recession and credit implosion that is coming. You won’t hear about this death cross on the MSM because it is a longer time frame than the very popular 200 day moving average that has always been a meaningless signal.
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I really enjoy your work. When I pull up where we currently are on the SMA(10) and SMA(20) I am seeing it not crossing ‘yet’..SMA(10) 2039.60 and SMA(20) 2028.72. Can you confirm?
Thanks – great info.
switchblade13,
on the chart above which is bloomberg i show 10 MA at 2024.99 and 20 MA at 2027.68. That is a cross.
yep, i see it now…on yours as well as on investing dot com. Fidelity has it wrong
ITS HAPPENING
Shhhhhh. Don’t tell everyone or it won’t happen.
Blue can you give us an update on your positions?
superpositron,
Short still no change. no options at the moment.
“The stock buy back math no longer works so we just lost the most important bid in the market. Stock buybacks will now have to come from cash flow.”
That’s huge.
How much more can the camel’s back take?
We’re gonna find out.
BlueStar, when it breaks, do you think think a 2008 run-for the-exits margin call is in the cards?
anecdotal,
if i am correct, and its looking better for me every day, there is an outside chance we are below 666 by fall. it sounds insane but its on the charts. minimum 30% correction.
Indueed
Brace for impact!
Thanks, really good stuff and great style!
http://usawatchdog.com/world-going-into-nasty-depression-hugo-salinas-price/
Bluestar you have nailed it, I take back my wise cracks
freebie,
as I like to say “I am never in doubt but often wrong.” Thanks for your gracious words. This is a humbling business. I have been humbled many times. keep coming.
A cross is a problem.
Another problem- Too few countries borrow with the intention
of paying it back and yet when they do ,there is no financial
premium.Call me confused