Good news for bulls!: My best guess is a flush on Monday/Tuesday then a two week rally. Bad News For Bulls!: I believe the rally fails and we ultimately go below the 2009 low as we are seeing the four year cycle top. Not 100% sure but I am pretty sure. There is a small chance we could crash from here but only very small.
This weekend I will write a piece that will alter your perception of reality. There is a lot going on behind the curtain. We truly live in very deceitful times.
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Im waiting for it – ive got to see the face melting rally that makes people wish they went on margin to know the top is in. I believe you said something a few weeks back that really resonated – “markets don’t top on bad news.”
Thanks for your contributions Blue!
Good call Blue. I appreciate the work you share with us.
i hope your profiting nicely from your recent call & hard work. have a great weekend.
thankyou bluestar
what’s your time-frame on piercing the 2009 low?
Congrats on this week’s victories Blue. You completely: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ilRAtDOSVOQ
If we crash overnight Monday I will never forgive myself for being in cash.
I mean you completely: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GMwVsY2FnD8
As long as Monday doesn’t bring the end of days, I may just buy this POS market at /ES 1935 for a bounce. It is the 61.8% retracement of the Oct 2014 to May 2015 swing.
Obviously watching this 1970 area very closely too.
If we did trade to 1935 that would be a 165 point /ES drop. I’d play for a 50%-61.8% retrace of that, or 87.5-102 points to about 2022.5-2037. Then prepare thine anus.
http://tos.mx/ruENCK
To add to the prior post. If we did bounce off 1935 then it would complete a Wave 1 down of the aforementioned 165 points. I would measure Wave 3 down at about 330 points from let’s just say 2030. That takes us all the way down to 1700 even on /ES.
Is that crazy talk?
Sorry to clog your blog here, but alternatively we could bounce immediately Monday after having dropped here 133 points. Measure 67-82 point retrace from 1967 to about 2034-2049. I’ll say 2034 is the swing high, then we drop 266 points to 1768.
That is all.
http://kingworldnews.com/bill-fleckenstein-warns-stock-market-plunge-will-accelerate-compares-this-weeks-action-to-the-1987-crash/
I don’t understand how the indexes get to below the 2009 low. Are you saying GE goes back under 5 dollars a share, BAC goes to 2-3 bucks, SBUX to 3, AAPL to a market cap of 60 billion when they have 200 billion in cash now? FCX and other commodities are already near the 2009 low, and many of the coal companies are already bankrupt. I guess I don’t see how we can even get there.
Larry
I will tell you how. More margin debt than any time since 1929.
The world is awash in debt.
China has built ghost city after ghost city and has the biggest real estate bubble in history.
We don’t have a 5.3% unemployment rate the Fed’s have been lying.
94 million Americans out of work, under employed or working part time-not healthy
There are more derivatives trading now than before 2007.
Most democratically controlled states and municipalities are dead broke and won’t be able to service their debt or pension obligations.
Bob Prechter has been saying for years that he believes we are in the final stages of a grand super cycle top that will eventually take the Dow to 1000 or below-yes 1000 not a misprint.
Oh one more thing M2 has crashed! There is no money velocity!
Juice,
The time frame is difficult to say. Because the cycle has been stretched to record lengths in theory it could do it by this fall. However I think its more likely to happen over the next 18-24 months.
Larry,
In 2000 tech stocks where all the rage. Many ultimately retraced 80-90% from the top. At the bottom many tech companies were trading at cash. Ultimately what drives stock prices is supply. If debt, so well described by Doug, is in liquidation mode then sellers will overwhelm buyers and this will end when the sellers exhaust themselves. So what I am saying is that it is not only likely to happen but very probable. If the grand super cycle in credit is over then equity prices will shock and amaze you. Equity prices are a derivative of credit. More credit=higher equity prices while less credit=lower equity prices.
mikecampi,
The last 2 days have seen my account grow immensely. I have an idea how Jessie Livermore felt. On the other hand I am saddened by the losses of the masses. I write this blog as a karmic exercise to help those willing to listen. I don’t make any money doing this. It is my charity work.
Congrats Bluestar.
Thanks for writing. I feel bad for the average guy, going forward. I’m trying to not be a victim. It seems the average hard working good guy is oblivious to what lies ahead. Not necessarily the next dip, but the next few yrs
imo we ain’t seen nothin’ yet.
What do you think of the average guys’ future? (Next few yrs; US & western countries)
Blue – this video is highly informative and revealing … a must see
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hQKjdXqmEyo&feature=youtu.be
Extremely interested. Looking forward to the article.
Timely:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pgaGCJfCHjU
BTW: The photo 16 seconds in is “Wild Goose island” Glacier Park, MT
Juice,
And this impacts our investing, how?
Sorry I spent the time watching.
Some propaganda interspersed with occasional truth.
Juice,
Total BS I spent 8 years active duty flying Navy jets!
@Juice
The message is neither complicated nor cryptic. Enjoy the ride. Angst with the market or whatever is toxic.
But propaganda? Where? I missed that.
Anyway, good luck tomorrow.
I have been long a butterfly put spread since june on SPy Sep Puts: 196x186X180. You?
PUT Spread
Juice,
Oops! I thought “?” was your reply to my earlier post.
prop = US military is omnipotent.
me, long pm miners. time horizon, a few yrs
Guys,
My next article is delayed. I am having wifi issues. Only cell phone connection.
Blue, hope you were at least able to trade today…Internet issues suck, and I am sure that being on an island in the pacific doesn’t make them any easier…
Blue is too busy buying up Maui real estate with his index put fortunes to reply to us plebs.
Blue,
Clamoring for your next blog. We live in interesting times is what I can say about our financial markets.
Please tell me you are trading from this delayed device and connection, from which you speak.
While the rest of us pushed and shoved to get in front of a real time quote, you traded from a fucking cellphone.
Kudos my man. Utmost respect.
Blue????
Fleckenstein closed out many shorts & is looking to reload on a rally
http://kingworldnews.com/bill-fleckenstein-the-crash-prone-markets-are-headed-considerably-lower/
OA,
I executed most of my trades from mobile TWS. Works like a charm most times. Was IB down this morning? I didn’t notice as I didn’t execute a trade until 1:30 ET. Shit was way too crazy in the morning.
OA,
I am still down. I was standing out on my deck trading on this piece of shit phone. It was insane.
I am still trying to get wifi up. Bottom line I think massive manipulation is going on. Hint: The title of my next post is going to be “9/23: Is God Really Speaking to Us Through CNN?”
Your computers look fine to me. A little outdated, but functioning.
http://businesslife.ba.com/Media/images/1987h-Business-Life-Wall-Street-credit-Moviestore-Collection-Rex-Features-30c05774-bf6d-4e5b-8db5-e4284a02baca-0-605×412.jpg
my email has been out since yesterday. I’m going to cut the losers at verizon loose ‘ had enough.. If they weren’t so busy handing out everyone’s data, they could focus on their actual f’n business.
bluestar withdrawal my something is turning blue….
:-0
Blue,
I agree with you that the crash scenario is on the table here. There is no real liquidity in these markets other CNBC retail or hedge funds covering positions. There is no real money on the sidelines to save the day IMO. They were all long at SPX 2100.
Feel free to call me a tinfoiler. 🙂
Who abducted blue star?