Given that Tsipras just submitted a deal that was virtually the same as the one before they took it to a vote this weekend I can only assume he was visited by a Dark Sith Overlord and offered a deal between gold or lead. Maybe there is some debt relief we are not aware of yet. Very odd to say the least. I can’t think of any other explanation than the one I offered. Who would create all this drama to only end up where you began? It makes zero sense. I welcome other explanations.
On another note China has outlawed selling stocks by most of the market save the individual investor. This is really the most bizarro turn of events I have ever seen in my life. What is even more bizarre is that some folks in our media are cheering on these moves by China. The authorities are arresting short sellers so what in Gods name is our media cheering…tyranny? It really shows how desperate the central planners around the world have become. I have no idea if we have bottomed given this news but I am staying the course for now and if we pop and fade to a new low then it is on. Maybe they can eek out new highs but it is doubtful to me. The wheels are coming off the bus and unless credit starts to heal the long good night is upon us. If credit improves meaningfully I will reconsider my outlook.
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I think the Greece vote was really an excuse to get out of an extension on the 2nd bailout where they could not get debt restructuring. They wanted a longer term program with debt relief, and those Pyrrhic victories could be served on a plate to the masses with the worst austerity yet. If the EC and ECB can’t work out some restructuring with Hitler/Merkel, Tsipras can claim he did everything possible to stay in the Euro.
Linmoo,
Thanks, I like your explanation better.
I always enjoy reading your commentary/outlook/thesis. However, I am curious about one thing; when you say “the long good night is upon us” do you mean a bear market/crash or the complete end of days/ruin of our financial system? If it’s the latter I have to ask, why even bother trading?
Mr peartree.
I mean the worst bear market we have ever seen. However, life will go on. At the end of this bear I believe the new secular bull will begin. After people swear off stocks for good. It will be glorious.
If you are correct and the worst bear market ever begins, where would you put your money in such a case, cash? Probably a crappy situation for the retired or near retired I would guess.
At least we know why Vali Quit.He
was not going to sign on to this.When or
if this fails he will be there to take
Greece over with Tsipras’s backing.
Blue, the market is that last policy tool available to CBs, nothing else has worked. if the market goes so does our society.
I think Santellis rant about entitlement reaching the 1% via the markets is an accurate assessment. Just buy the index and enjoy the ride. Here they kill the short sellers the old fashioned way – squeeze them. In China they just put a bullet in their heads.
The markets used to be the last bastion of capitalism, but no longer given how many hedge funds have closed up shop and the dispersion of returns of stocks.
This is all quite sad as there is no true price discovery. Companies have cut all of their variable costs (labour), not investing in fixed assets (capex), so they now embark on share repurchase. The last point shows just how bad the economy is.
Pretty soon we will regress to meeting under the persimmon tree once a week to trade our shares. My how far we have come.
JTT- Very well spoken. The global fascist business model is in full bloom.
Jimmy,
my basic thesis is that nature will win it always does.
Blue,
hopefully it will not be a violent i.e. social unrest/war/revolution this could get very ugly otherwise.
Thats what drones are for! Terminator/ponzi world
Secular bull 2012-2030. There’s still time to get in and make money with the rest of us.
Larry,
I hope your right. Again I wold rather be wrong but its what I see. Good luck.
jimmy,
I hope I am wrong. But given the evidence I see and knowing what I know it will likely come to pass.
These moves by the Chinese authorities will only make it much, much worse. What is going to happen when they lift the selling restrictions? The market will literally crash. I would compare this to when a newly IPOed stock hits the end of their lockup period. Imagine the end of the $TWTR lockup on a grand scale. Didn’t $TWTR drop like 20% on the lockup expiry?
And what if the Chinese market continues to decline while these sellers are in a lockup? What happens if a banned seller gets margin called?
These measures will not be bullish for Chinese shares, but will instead probably cause or help to cause a global crash in equities. Tick tock Bulls, tick tock.
Looking increasingly like we’re getting a Grexit. Germany doesn’t want another bailout + Greece needs a staggering amount of money to recapitalize banks; much more than what people thought. The only way they get that money is with Germany’s approval, and they won’t get it.
$DB tankage on Monday. Sadly, I think we missed our entry and may never get it.
Is Monday going to be a day to remember in equity markets?
Blue,
If you had to bet whether the Euro itself survives to 2016 what would you do? What kind of odds would you need to take the bet?
Varoufakis left because Tsipras is not an alpha. He is the opposite: http://wavs.unclebubby.com/wav/MOVIES/Fast-Times/urawuss.wav. Btw, Mamma’s Fishhouse rocks!
Looking like they will get no choice at all, 10 Euro nations have apparently announced their preference for a Grexit.
Nations?? Lol
What do the bankers want, the idea of nations is so quaint
Quality,
these things take time. let the bond market be your guide. if ECB QE does not work its over.
GTFO,
Glad you liked it. Did you see and Audi A6 speeding by you with music blaring. that was me.
Jimmy 2T,
These things usually end with war & heartache. This is the largest QE in the history of the world with the most countries ever. Maybe we’ll get lucky and it won’t happen this time.
QC I,
I suspect the Euro will exist in 2016, but it may be a Nordic Euro of sorts. Southern countries – out.
Greece explained
Greek assets are being forcibly transferred. The blues are acting in concert for their own self interest.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hSfX8jg7mK0
Did that Audi come with a schadenfreude meter? You might need one soon. 😉
PB,
I truly don’t want other people to get hurt. Bad Karma. However I view this rubber band market as energy that needs to be released. If i time it right the energy of the many will be transferred to the few. I want to be one of those few.
None other than the Garman his-self, has put his stamp on at least a good move to the downside with this “you’d be a fool to short this market”
http://www.cnbc.com/2015/07/17/dennis-gartman-stock-market-bull-run.html
And the fool Gartman must have been talking about who is short this market, other than the Maui local IBC resident BlueStar, is none other than George Soros. http://www.marketwatch.com/story/george-soros-goes-short-with-mutual-funds-and-etfs-as-the-sp-500-goes-1400-days-without-a-10-correction-opines-lowriskmutualfundsnet-2015-06-18
Soros vs. Gartmann .. hmm… who would you pick?
Ha ha, loved the infamous flaming barrel of garbage pic Fly put up.
Speaking of lit up, the pm’s are melting down at the moment. I heard the recent drop was due to Chinese selling anything to meet margin calls – who knows.
I do know the miners can’t sell below their costs forever.