Happy New Year!
Predictions for 2015:
1) Volatility is back in a big way. Eventually the market should resolve lower due to the deflationary forces sweeping the globe. However, the Central Banks will not go gently into the night and should continue to try and prevent the next financial crisis through actions and Jawboning at the right moments. I expect violent swings both up and down and I intend to profit from all moves. 10% swings will become the norm. This should be a traders market this year and much profit is there for the taking. Nimbleness and flexibility will be key.
2) Active Managers will continue to get slaughtered. Correlations should rise dramatically as beta, sector positioning and cash cushions will matter more than stock picking. More flows will continue to get squeezed into SPY, DIA and QQQ.
3) The Dollar (DXY) will correct lower soon but eventually ends the year at 105. The largest margin call in the history of the world has begun. The periphery (emerging markets) will continue to experience serious damage. This will eventually spread to the Core (developed markets), however the wild card is a potential US stock market blow off top as capital flows seek perceived safety.
4) The Ukraine CIA puppet regime will launch a major military strike against the rebels in the East in Q1 and will be defeated. Russia and Putin will make Washington and Obama look like incompetent fools.
5) Major Fraud and Corruption scandal will be exposed in Washington this year.
6) Ebola will make a comeback.
7) ECB does not do QE in Q1 as Germany kicks and screams but they eventually relent and agree to do it in Q2.
8) Social Unrest will continue to rise and we should unfortunately see 1960’s style urban riots across the country this Spring and Summer. NYC has peaked and will descend into a crime infested shit hole as the police go on strike. DeBlasio will resign in shame.
9) The Central Bank Omnipotence meme will begin to be questioned as global market volatility rises violently.
10) ISIS will launch an attack against the Homeland or it will be made to appear that an attack was launched. The end result is the same which is more money for the security and military industrial complex. Also a great distraction from the incompetence and corruption of the Federal Government.
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Cheery predictions! 😮
uh, Maui Trader, you see any positives for 2015?
So you will be stepping into the light from
time to time
juice,
Potential blow off top in US equities before the brutal end. 🙂
Gorby,
Yes It has become clear to me that the CB’s will try to prevent a crash. So there will be a tug of war between bulls and bears. I will Zen about this and go where the wave takes me.
Still long TLT, Long March IWM Puts, and Short AMZN. Lots of cash.
Blue, where do you see the 10 year yield mid and end year ?
Happy New Year, best of luck and hope to read you all year long. 😉
Nautique99,
We put in a three year cycle low on 12/31/2013 in bond prices. The cycle runs on average 3 years from low to low. The ten year yield should peak at around 1.5% this summer and then end the year around 2.00%. But what the hell do I know. 😉
Unfortunately, I think you’re on track with these.
I heard a few hundred US / UN? tanks are being deployed. Putin, shaking in his boots.
In just one WWII battle, Kursk the Soviets used over 10,000 tanks.
Great interview: Rick Rule said oil decline could end anywhere from now to 3 years. I think he was just being conservative with the up to 3yrs. I think it will increase much sooner.
https://us-mg4.mail.yahoo.com/neo/b/message?sMid=2&fid=Inbox&sort=date&order=down&startMid=0&filterBy=&.rand=1031171959&midIndex=2&mid=2_0_0_1_104666550_AOt2w0MAABW5VKcwwgG5aDO9sUk&fromId=
Since everyone wants to give their top 10 predictions for the year let me come in with my one prediction. The top .10% are about to experience one hell of bad year. Whether it’s the outrageous prices paid for artwork at Christies, The condos in NYC, the oceanfront homes in Laguna Beach or San Fran, Buying a new private jet and gutting it to put your own special favorite amenities in and then taping it so you could put it on TV, or ridiculous 20,000 square foot homes selling for tens of millions of dollars or perhaps all you have to do is watch CNBC and listen to Dottie what’s her name and watch her interviewers and listeners drool during the interview. Does anyone really believe this shit is normal and perhaps just a little bit over exuberant? The excess in behavior and actions is everywhere for this group and the weakness might already be showing up. Take a look at WYNN or LVS, maybe this is the preverbal ‘Canary in the Coal mine.’ Maybe, maybe not but In my opinion this is the real bubble. How it gets busted is perhaps anyones guess but you could just start by connecting the dots.
Sonny- I feel your sentiment about the show of wealth by the 10 percent, but consider this-
When they feel times are good, the lower classes spend like this in their own way, scaled down to their income level. It’s the nature of the American culture right now. Most of us have to hit rock bottom before the fat is removed from the lifestyle.
NYC is to vice as LA is to homosexuality. Buckle your seatbelt Dorothy, ’cause Kansas is going bye-bye.
Charlie
I have no fucking idea what your talking about