Those are the views from my new home on Maui. Unfortunately, not one but two hurricanes are coming; one tomorrow and then one on Sunday. I got here last week and my stuff was supposed to be moved in tomorrow. We have delayed that endeavor. So there is a distinct possibility that my new home gets blown off the side of the volcano. The Fly says this is, ironically, the apocalypse that I crave so much. For the record I don’t crave doom. I am merely a practitioner of cycles and this bull is about to end. I don’t get emotional about these things. We have another hurricane coming in October with the end of QE. The set up for the top is almost complete. My best guess is we undercut the low soon then begin a rally for a couple of weeks. If that rally fails then we begin the correction in earnest. I will be getting very heavy on the short side if I see the set up complete.
Currently I am mostly cash with a small DIA put, I did a starter short today in LVS courtesy ChessNwine and I am long a taste of Sept LULU calls via OA’s recommendation since I think we rally for a few weeks. The LVS chart looks dreadful and fundamentally Macau July numbers were awful due to the fact that Chinese millionaires are getting bank debt margin calls on just about everything. If you have not been paying attention China is in a slow motion implosion and LVS is now a confirmed way to play that viewpoint via the US markets. I will be adding to the LVS short on weak bounces. Getting up at 3:00 AM to trade is a little new but I am done by 10:00 and on the beach by Noon. God willing I will not die this weekend!
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I’m praying for your safety. I got hit by 2011 earthquake in Fukushima, Japan when I was visiting. I thought might die.Nature got so much power beyond our imagination. Yes, I agree about China since I visit Asia often. Stay safe.
Are you buying the LULU $40 Septs? What do you look for when buying calls since there is a lot of decay?
Sick view. You’ll be fine. Hurricanes are pussies.
Nice digs Ed. Love your last interview with Tim btw. God bless.
@Patrick high IV= sell options, don’t buy them. Put theta on your side.
whereabouts in Maui are you Blue ? been there several times, me and the wife honeymooned there, stayed in Kiehi, and Makawao, hope to retire there someday, short flight from vancouver
Patrick,
Yes. its a trade. small position. beaten down washed out lots of short interest and potential M&A chatter suggests higher to me
Fly,
I agree.
operator 1,
thanks
the_wolf
Haiku, the jungle. My wife’s uncle had a family compound in wailea. we have been coming here years. my wife has been coming for 30 years.
Bluestar, here’s to you and your family (if they’re there with you) being safe and stomping a mudhole (extra Stone Cold) in any hurricane that comes your way.
Stay safe – Went through Hurricane Andrew back in the 90s and many others while living in southern Louisiana. The clean-up was always the worst.
Went through a couple of Cat 1 hurricanes while I lived in Florida. We secured the house and brought in adult beverages and snacks and had friends come stay since we were out of the evacuation zone. That said, hope you and your family stay safe.
Hope you make it through fine. Congrats on the stunning house in your slice of paradise.
Blue Star Airline,
I also hope you don’t die either. Your work here is appreciated.
May the God, that Le Fly does not believe in, protect you and your family during the hurricanes.
Stay safe Bluestar, great lookin view…just curious what interview did you have recently?
Congrats on the new home.I was in
your neck of the woods many tears ago
and it was a joy.
Bought a full position in $C today.
Many thanks for your work.
Still looking for that upper level shear from my vantage point on East Oahu, but it’s looking doubtful. Maybe it *is* different this time.
I had a membership in 12631 for some daily action, and even tried to shift my entire “day” to begin with the 3:00 AM reveille, but couldn’t hold out. Pau hana drinks at 10:00 am was the last straw. Hope you have better luck, it’s late entries and swing trades for me these days.
I’m well prepared. Beer is on ice! Bring It!
Thanks to everyone for their concern. My wife and kids are in a hotel. I am at the house with the dog. I think this may have been my wife’s plan all along 🙂