Flame Out or Fade Away?


My time is near, so I need to make this quick. I had grand plans, talk of how I can’t think of BG anymore without thinking about gambling (thanks Cain Thaler), or about how this whole debt ceiling bit will end with a whimper and 30min of press time, or about the sham of Potash earnings that falls on deaf ears. No no, I must be on my game here.

TAFKAT has a good game going, and one can hardly argue with his latest round of semicap calls. We might, in fact, need to remove the moniker “TAFKAT” and resume using his original name. But not so fast. Buddy-boy needs to man-up and stop trading.

First, in the usual round of LED earnings calls today, did anyone hear that one bozo who could barely speak English try to reference “capital intensity?” I just about choked trying to keep my laughter down. How do you find a reference point for capital intensity in a group that has not exhibited cyclicality?

Whatever, in tech land these days, capital intensity can truly only reference chips. Our man TAFKAT is in denial. While he chases the easy gambling money into LRCX in hopes memory prices go higher, he misses the forest for the trees in that KLAC is the one pure beneficiary of EUV’s failure that is leading to this higher capital intensity. He even mentions KLAC as a beneficiary but shies away from recommending the stock because KLAC has outperformed LRCX so far this year. Guess what Meatball? Everything outperforms LRCX. Bless you for trying to breathe life into its valuation but it’s not gonna help.

Moving on.

He complains about KLAC’s lack of exposure to memory. Boo hoo. So KLAC is smart enough to not play by Samsung’s rules. One day TAFKAT is not happy about Samsung exposure, the next he is not happy about INTC exposure. You know what? These days I will pay for INTC exposure, especially since it looks like AAPL is about to give Samsung the boot.

Woof! Did I say that or just think it out loud?

Oh yeah, then there’s that KLAC divvie. C’mon you idiots, sell it down. I am a buyer in 50c increments below $40.

So you really want metrology exposure to memory? Buy NANO. Is anyone really surprised by tonight’s report? I saw an ask as low as $13.50 after hours. That is about the stupidest thing I have seen in a long while. I am a buyer in 50c increments below $16 tomorrow. I will hold it until LRCX buys the company for >$30.

Do you get the picture? Tech is on sale. I am a tech bear, but this shit is getting ridiculous. I know how this movie ends.

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