Joined Jan 1, 1970
509 Blog Posts

Intraday Breaks for 01/14/09

1:50 pm ET

New breaks: 356

Bullish breaks: 21 (6%)

Bearish breaks: 335 (94%)

Looks like the bears are stomping and grinding the bulls into dust today. I haven’t seen things this lopsided since the Oct/Nov ’08 days (which wasn’t very long ago).

To make matters worse for the bulls, here’s a list of a majority of the bullish breakouts:

DEE, DGZ, DOG, DUG, EEV, EUM, RSW, SCC, SDS, SH, SIJ, SJH, SMB, SZK, and TWM (all inverse ETFs!)

The only long positions breaking out are BND, GBF, NPG, VHI, VXO and RTMI. Have fun with THAT. Seriously. I don’t know whether to laugh or cry.

As far as the breakdowns, they’re all over the place: software, metals, biotech, insurance real estate, machinery, S&L’s, aerospace, retailing, transports, electronics, oil service, banks, building, oil, finance, healthcare, internet. The list goes on.

When I look at the bullish / bearish pattern ratio, the number stands at 39.8% bullish. This is down from 53.7% yesterday and over 84% last week. The 84% indicated a very overbought condition in stocks.

This almost seems too extreme today. Maybe we’ll see some late day action from The PPT—but don’t hold your breath on that.

That is all. Carry on.

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Costanza Stock: DECK

Here’s a stock for you bottom fishing mavens. Yeah, I know many people have an aversion to ugly furry boots, or “UGGS”, as they are fondly called. But, realize that they’re one of the best sellers at DECK.

In fact, to give you an idea how unimaginative people are,  over Christmas time, Uggs were one of the most popular presents given, according to an informal poll of middle class married men (yours truly excluded, of course). Yeah, I know. It’s sad.

Given that sales of Uggs have been a boon to DECK, on the overseas front, however, the picture has not been so warm and fuzzy—-as they are freezing in Europe.  Slow and dicey sales prompted analysts at Piper Jaffray to cut the price target on DECK yesterday from $126 to $97, which caused the stock to lose $7, closing at $64.26. Today saw it recover a little to close at $64.96.

This sets up a possible “Costanza trade” for DECK, as the stock did try to bounce today, reaching an intraday high of $67.46, confirming a reversal, before getting slapped back down. And, of course, it makes absolutely no sense why a rational, intelligent, fashion-conscious person would buy this stock.

That is all. Carry on , gents and ladies.

Disclaimer: Not a solicitation. No furry animals were harmed as a result of this post. Profits not guaranteed by the U.S. Treasury, The Fed, FDIC, FINRA, SEC, DEA, FBI, or any governmental agency. You will not get bailed out, so look and think before you buy.

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Intraday Breaks

As of an hour ago, 92 issues were breaking out or breaking down so far today. Of that, 82 issues were breaking down. That’s 89% of new “break” patterns. Short term, oversold?

The overall bullish / bearish pattern ratio has fallen from over 5 to 1 last week to even, 1 to 1 as of today. That is not a good development for the bullish camp, so I will be prepared to go short via inverse ETFs if this situation persists. This pullback may be more than I bargained for. No need to fight it. What is, is.

Needless to say, I’ve gotten stopped out of many stocks that have gotten KIA. My cash is now approaching 50%. Still, the bulls are MIA.

Wall Street royalty is going down (again):

And, apparently you folks aren’t eating enough Chinese food, either:

Or, pizza………….

Finally, this development can’t be good for the bulls….

Enjoy the rest of your day. I will be in a planning session, plotting out my next moves. Keeping an eye on further developments on the downside, but not ready to throw in the towel just yet.

That is all. Carry on.

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Thank You Sir, May I Have Another?

Some of my stocks have been poleaxed and their nose hairs pulled out, painfully, of course. My buying last week was met with selling, effectively causing me to hit the wall in my small cap sportscar at 95 mph. Not to worry.

Does this phase me? Yes, and no, not really. 

Yes, because my portfolio has lost a little equity, having been stopped out of AAI, COMS, GGP, and other shinola too numerous for me to name (I don’t care to either). However, many of these stupid stocks have stripped out small to large sized profits from Mr. Market, so I’m still winning the war.

In addition, just know that institutions are net buyers and have been since early December. They’ve also been buying corporate bonds—the financial company type, since early December as well. It’s called accumulation, which many of you trader-types know nothing about, since you personally buy and sell on a dime, literally.

Armageddon is baked into this market, and it may look like we’re going to fall off the cliff again, but we’re not ready yet. Not just yet, anyway. See, need I remind you that the Obama-rally is on the horizon? Change…Yes, we can,….and all that jazz.

Use this healthy pullback to buy.  I am keeping a watchful eye on the institutions and planning to take The PPT hostage for a kings ransom, if they delay their buy programs. Just don’t get caught by the shakeout that is in progress. Strengthen thy hands and act like you got a pair.

That is all. Carry on.


The rest of the story here…

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Get Ready to Rally

I know, I know. Many of you think it’s impossible for the market to rally on a Friday. You’re expecting bad employment numbers, Ponzi schemes at Scottrade, and the U.S. economy about to swan dive into a pool of cement.

But you’re wrong. I believe the market can rally, and it will, much to your chagrin. However, you could still get your wish that the economy will swan dive into that pool of cement.  It may even throw in a half-twist for show. Strange, but true.

Why? Mon ami, realize that Mr. Market doesn’t care about your reasonings and vain attempts at short term profits. (Or mine, for that matter.) He marches to his own beat, and he’s about to go “medieval” on the bears with a  goat horned pick axe. Bloody right.

Armed with that knowledge, I plan to populate my portfolio sometime tomorrow with stocks, using my remaining cash (21%), thus pushing all my chips to the middle of the table and going “all in”. Yes, this is a bold and brazen attempt at glory, but someone has to do it.

Remember, it’s only money, electronic digits on a computer screen, or green slips of paper with funny faces and Masonic symbols on it (for you old-schoolers).

If I am correct, I expect to be well paid in gold shekels, silk and fine wine.

However, just in case there’s a one-in-a-million chance that I might possibly be wrong about all this, I have made contingency plans to take The PPT hostage until they “pay up”.

That is all. Carry on.

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Daily Recap (Short Version)

Thanks to SGR, GGP, ELN, JEC and PBR, I was up over 4% today on my stocks. That’s not factoring in that APOL is up after hours. I guess DevilDog shot himself in the balls again with that short APOL position (surprise, surprise).

In anticipation of tomorrow’s employment numbers from the house of pain, I spent the last hour of the day, examining and tightening up my stops. Frankly, I’m too busy tabulating my wins, while finishing off a bag of chips and root beer, to make any more comments, so I’ll leave it at that.

Carry on.

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