Trader’s Ode to Mother Market

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FktTi9nRNKM 450 300]

I have no words of wisdom for you internets tonight, other than, “drive safe and be sure to look both ways”.

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We’re getting volatility coming back. Don’t just look at the absolute numbers. Check out the volatility range expansion since the beginning of the year.

The market will be moving up and down based on Obama news developments. We also have jobless claims, housing starts and housing prices coming out tomorrow.

Fasten your seat belts and get ready for nice intraday rides…..

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The same man that said this today….

“We remain the most prosperous, powerful nation on Earth. Our workers are no less productive than when this crisis began. Our minds are no less inventive, our goods and services no less needed than they were last week or last month or last year. Our capacity remains undiminished. But our time of standing pat, of protecting narrow interests and putting off unpleasant decisions —-that time has surely passed. Starting today, we must pick ourselves up, dust ourselves off, and begin again the work of remaking America.

“For everywhere we look, there is work to be done. The state of the economy calls for action, bold and swift, and we will act, not only to create new jobs, but to lay a new foundation for growth. We will build the roads and bridges, the electric grids and digital lines that feed our commerce and bind us together. We will restore science to its rightful place, and wield technology’s wonders to raise health care’s quality and lower its cost. We will harness the sun and the winds and the soil to fuel our cars and run our factories. And we will transform our schools and colleges and universities to meet the demands of a new age. All this we can do. All this we will do.”  

Also said this today….

“That we are in the midst of crisis is now well understood. Our nation is at war, against a far-reaching network of violence and hatred. Our economy is badly weakened, a consequence of greed and irresponsibility on the part of some, but also our collective failure to make hard choices and prepare the nation for a new age. Homes have been lost; jobs shed; businesses shuttered. Our health care is too costly; our schools fail too many; and each day brings further evidence that the ways we use energy strengthen our adversaries and threaten our planet.

“These are the indicators of crisis, subject to data and statistics. Less measurable but no less profound is a sapping of confidence across our land —-a nagging fear that America’s decline is inevitable, and that the next generation must lower its sights.”

After today’s market meltdown of 332 points on the Dow, we all know by now that the collective intelligence, emotion and conviction of the market thought that the second quote was closer to reality, and more believable, than the first—reminding us again, that In the end, it is the opinion of the market that matters, not presidential rhetoric.

Believe what you may, but if there was ever such a thing as an “Obama Rally”, it would have started November 5, and we would be over 10,000 on the Dow by now. Change? Yeah, R-I-I-I-G-H-T.

The adoration of this new president borders on ludicris. Yes, egregious. People will be sadly disappointed, which will make matters worse. We are on the road to ruin.

You must now move to protect your assets, if you haven’t done so already. From now on, I will be trading with a downside bias, ad nauseum.

Market going down and will be lower by this time next year. 

That is all you need to know. Trade accordingly.

Disclaimer: No offense intended to Obama-ites, but the man is not the messiah, despite your undying adoration.  

 [youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fkuOAY-S6OY 450 300]

 

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If you like to bottom fish, here are some ETFs to watch for reversals.

The buy signal for FAS is on a break above $13. Stop at $11.

The buy signal is on a break above $37. Stop at $33.

The buy signal is on a break above $17. Stop at $15.

Finally, a real “Costanza”…………….

The buy signal is on a break above $13. Stop is at $11.

The entry prices are good for Tuesday only, and once an entry is made, be ready to take profits once the ETF starts to move higher. These are short term trades, playing the “asshat dip buyer bounce”. Don’t worry, you’re not in that camp as long as you remember to use trailing stops, position size your trades and don’t stick around to try to make these more of a long trade than they are. You’re dealing with financial companies and a former superpower turned third world country, remember?

Keep it simple, keep it real.

Happy trading.

That is all. Carry on.

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Thursday’s action saw 256 new stocks “breaking”. The vast majority were breaking down like Chinese sex toys.

An overwhelming 95% !!!

Sorry, but that’s just too much. Levels like that reflect the extreme pessimism that is pervasive throughout our great and fearful land. We’re going to get a reversal here at some point.

Furthermore, the bull/bear pattern ratio is now at only 19.8% (under 20% is oversold territory). That is a complete flip flop from early last week when it was over 80%. Again, look for a reversal back to the upside perhaps today or Tuesday.

Early leaders: There were only a handful of stocks breaking out of the chute on Thursday. I bought RIMM , which broke a triple top. Some of the other stocks that were bucking the downtrend are worth noting:

It’s interesting that these stocks are in sectors like tech, financials, semis, retail consumer, industrials, and biotech/healthcare.

Note: If you tend to be more conservative and want to play a potential reversal to the upside, look at buying those stocks that are trading or have traded through resistance already, and are beginning to break higher.

Happy Friday. Carry on.

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That is all.

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