CHTR – Daily – Bullish stochastic divergence. Nice looking bull flag & digestion pattern on lighter volume.
CHTR – Weekly – Bull flag on lighter volume, the chart rested and let the 10ema catch up.
FLS – Testing the descending trend line & noticing signs of accumulation. I am watching for a break higher on continued increasing volume and a test of the highs.
EBAY – Bounced higher last Thursday & Friday after consolidating on the long term ascending trend line. First target is the gap fill at $55.65.
MNST – Consolidating under resistance levels. Bullish stochastic divergence on the daily chart. Golden cross should happen this week.
SCHW – Cheap name. Cleared resistance levels with increasing volume. Next level is $17.85ish.
Shorts:
COP - After running almost 10% in two weeks I would expect to see the price come in a bit before continuing over the next resistance levels.
DVN – Testing the long term descending trend line after closing green 10 days in a row. Looking for a small retrace back into the moving averages. Trade will likely be a day trade unless the market shows some significant weakness.
GS – Tested and rejected the top of the descending channel. $147.30 is a long term support/resistance level.
AVB – Looks like a great short opportunity should we see any roll over in the markets. If the price begins to rotate lower the first target is $125.50.
About an equal number of long setups vs short setups this week. As much as I believe the market is in a topping pattern, I can’t ignore the good looking long setups. Cautious outlook moving forward. Cut your losers fast, scale out of your winners and raise stops to protect your profits.
Not all of these setups will trigger this week. Anticipate price action but always wait for confirmation.
LONGS:
FLS – Tested the long term rising trend line last week and bounced off volume support. I am looking for a test of the descending trend line this week.
MA – Price action is coiled up inside of this pennant. Watch for an increase in volume to break higher.
AFL – Weekly chart – Testing volume resistance and the top trend line of the descending channel. Price worked off overbought levels inside the ascending triangle pattern.
CNK – Watch for an increase in volume to confirm a break out of the ascending triangle. First resistance is $29.50.
UPS – Building a base under resistance. Volume signature is expanding. Watching for the breakout this week.
PHM – Longer term ascending triangle and testing volume resistance. Could use a pull back or sideways consolidation before the breakout, but won’t be necessary if the volume comes in.
COP – Another ascending trend line tested last week and volume expansion. Recaptured the moving averages.
SHORTS:
EMN – Tested and rejected the top of the channel. Lost the major moving averages on Friday. Looking for a test of the lower trend line.
AXLL – Head & shoulders pattern. Volume support and neckline share the price level. Earnings coming up this week.
AVB – Tested and rejected the top of the channel & lost the moving averages. Stochastics worked off overbought levels quickly.
DVN – Weekly chart – Long term descending triangle. Would like to see a bounce to be able to start a short position off a test of the descending trend line.
MUR – Bear flag. Consolidating on lighter volume with a measured move to $56.50ish.
EBAY – Another bear flag setup but EBAY has been strong stock will need increased selling volume to lose the rising trend line.
DJIA – Weekly chart. Broke out over previous highs of 14,198.10 and I am looking for higher prices before we correct. In my opinion, the SPX will see all time highs before the correction — However, it wouldn’t be unusual to see this market digest through time first. Still too man pundits in the media calling the top. The market is punishing them.
Money has been flowing out of the bonds for the better part of 2013. The TLT (weekly) is looking for an obvious test of the 200ema, if this current price fails. TLT got beat up pretty bad last week, a dead cat bounce is welcome and I’ll initiate a new short position. I am interested in selling TBT puts.
LONGS:
EBAY – Above average volume day on Friday. Nice hammer developed off this rising trend line. I started a 1/4 size position in APR $55 calls. Looking to add. Failure of the trend line is my stop.
AZO – Back on the list this week. I’ve been stalking this channel for months, if this turns out to be the bull flag to break us higher I am going long via APR calls. It will need room to work, that needs to be factored in your risk management plan.
AMZN – Nice looking bull flag on lighter volume this past week.
MA – Consolidating just over volume support of $525. Watching a test of the 8ema on the daily or a push over this descending trend line with volume to start a new long position for the next leg higher.
HAL – Looks ready for higher prices. Got back to oversold levels quickly on that last pull back. Following this ascending trend line out of this long term base.
BAX – Cleared this ascending triangle pattern and is consolidating above volume resistance. Setting up for a move higher.
NFLX – 60m chart – Consolidating under this descending trend line. Watching volume for a push higher. Daily chart has been working off overbought levels nicely while maintaining price.
Some cheaper names that look ready:
HLIT – Watch for volume and a break over 5.85 to clear this long term base.
RNDY – Consolidating under volume resistance. Textbook volume signature on the bull flag. This is what you want to see.
SHORTS:
FB – Humans are pattern seeking creatures, without even trying we try to connect the dots to everything we see and hear. This can work heavily in our favor but against us too. This chart is a head and shoulders pattern and a cup and handle at the same time. I started a short position on Friday at $27.85 without noticing the cup and handle in the same chart. I am giving it a $1 stop and may bail earlier if I feel like I am wrong.
TLT – Bonds got beat up last week so I am looking for a dead cat bounce to get into a short position via selling puts in the TBT to take advantage of this descending triangle.
FFIV – Bear flag on the daily. Sideways consolidation, Friday’s action couldn’t maintain the 8ema on the daily and selling volume is beginning to increase. Looking for a test of at least the lower volume support level on the chart.
NKE – Watching the selling volume near the volume support level and ascending trend line. Could be a low risk/reward short opportunity. Open gap below at $49.53.
We’ve had our fights, been black and blue, it’s true, @AffluenzaVirus
Friday, the SPX closed above important support (1432) & near this longer term rising trend line. Even when things are looking their ugliest it’s hard for me to swing any positions short with impeding QE Infinity & possibility of Iran nuclear talks. I scanned about 3000 charts this weekend & I did find a few good short & long setups.
*NOTE* Don’t forget to check your earnings dates before you get in.
SHORTS
NKE – Daily chart is a descending triangle. Short entry is as close to the descending trend line as possible. Stop is a close over the 200ema, currently $98.18. First Target is $92.72.
SHLD – Stochastics are over bought and it put in a lower high this week. I would like to start a short position on the failure of the rising trend line. On the otherside, if SHLD finds support and clears above the volume resistance with conviction it could be worth a few points on a long position.
LONGS
ABX – Keep this one on your watchlists — could be developing an inverted head & shoulders bottom.
EBAY – Cleared previous resistance on heavy volume. I am looking to start a long position off the 10ema on the weekly chart. Looking for roughly $48.46 or as close to it as I can get.
SHW - Similar chart to EBAY. Going to keep an eye on this one and look to go long on a test off the 50ema and/or the rising trend line.
EOG - Started building this position on Friday. Cup & handle pattern developing. First target is recent highs near $120.
MCP - Cleared this two year descending trend line and putting in a nice technical base. Started in some January calls on Friday.
HON - Cleared long term resistance of $62.00 with heavy volume. Watch how it handles this coming week. A lot of failed breakouts lately.
PCLN - I see no real edge either way here but I am watching these levels.
DNKN – Another nice ascending triangle pattern. An up day tomorrow would bring the price into the vacuum to an easy $37+ target.
Some current holdings:
LNN – I bought some LNN last week at $70.15 in this ascending triangle. Nice consolidation on low volume.
ASH – I am long via AUG $70 calls but have a new buy trigger at $70.30 with above average volume. I am looking to average down and/or add to my position there.
EAT – Started small in EAT today at $32.90. I had a buy trigger of $33 confirmed with over 100% volume today. I will add to this one if we pullback to gap fill or retest the 8ema.
SHORTS:
CERN – If we lose this trend line I will look to start a short position. We had above average selling volume today. Also, an open gap at $63.21.
EBAY – If we lose $38.50 the next support is $38 then the gap at $36.28.
Also watching:
TSCO – Nice wedge pattern in TSCO. I think filling the gap at $74.00 is more likely.
I tell you to enjoy life
I wish I could but it’s too late,
A quick look at the $SPX. I really went out of my way to try to find a bullish twist on this chart but I couldn’t. None of the longer term trend lines were appropriate. After I reviewed the DX (Dollar Futures) and the stock bond ratio it is clear to me that the market wants to start the next leg lower.
$SPX – I am expecting a failure of this rising wedge.
$DX_F (Dollar Futures) – Without even charting them, I’m sure the fib levels are congruous. Even without, the chart looks ready to clear this descending channel with volume and make a run to the upside.
Stock Bond Ratio – Bounced off the 65 MA. Not ready for a cross yet.
With that being said, I found a few really interesting long setups.
V – I am interested after clearing $125.35 with volume.
ALXN – Like it here for higher prices. Would have a hard stop set at $95.
GLUU – Speculation play. Like it over $5.00. Stop could be a close below the 8ema.
VHC – Nice ascending triangle. Could scale in here or on a pull back and add clearing $35.25 w/ volume confirmation.
EBAY – Like it here for a move higher. Stop would be the breakout level. Roughly $1 or 41.80ish. First target of $44.
DPS – Nice bull flag. Notice the consolidation on lighter volume. Getting ready to start the next leg higher.
TRIP – Breakout watch $45.85 w/ volume.
Also watching:
TWX – Close to testing long term resistance. Watch it.
CFX – Interesting candle on Friday w/ huge volume. Watch for a possible reversal on Monday.
Some interesting short setups:
GS – Descending Channel inside of a larger descending triangle. Below all the averages. Stochastics & volume suggest a lower price.
HME – If we can get a close under $58.75 this one will see lower prices.
COF – Watch this one to lose the 50ema. Next support is $51.50ish.
COV – After losing $52.35, this one will see lower.
For whatever it’s worth, I wrote this before futures opened this evening.
I am watching for one of two possible scenarios to pan out. The first one, I feel is more likely, though not my preferred outcome. Either way, I remain in a heavier cash position than normal and am not looking to force a trade. Market is close to making a decision, in my opinion.
SPX (Bearish Scenario) – SPX retests $1340 range or possibly even as high as $1358.5 before an increase in selling volume rolls the market over to test the $1200-1202 level. This of course will time out perfectly with bad news coming from Europe.
SPX (Bullish Scenario) – SPX trades in the $1292 – $1335 range this week and it is announced that the EuroZone has been bailed out, Italy, Greece and Spain are just fine or the EZ decides on Euro-bonds and all is right with the world. The market will rally in an explosive and violent move to the upside.
Of course there is the 3rd option. A more horrifyingly boring scenario to possibly play out. The market moves sideways for the next 3 months until everyone kills themselves out of boredom. Possible, but not likely.
Anyway, here are some charts:
LONGS
QCOR – I am going to continue to mention this one at every opportunity until the move completes or fails. I’ve been holding for weeks. Watch for volume at $46.
EBAY – Nice consolidation pattern beneath the highs. Rising nicely in the ascending triangle pattern. Watching for a push over $41.85 with volume.
WFM – Another nice looking ascending triangle. Watch for a volume breakout over $91.50.
LQDT – Watching $66.60 with above average volume.
TGT - Cleared resistance on just a little over average volume. Watch for a possible follow through.
SHORTS
(If the market decides this Spailout turns to sPANIC, here’s what I’ll be looking at first)
GOOG - Google daily chart bear flag. Half way back is $592ish. I would short losing this flag on heavy volume. Then add the full position on losing $566.
CMG – Still working inside of this descending triangle pattern. Lower your risk selling closer to the descending trend line. This one is heading lower unless some serious buyers step in and stay in.
TIF – Closed below support of $56.21. If this one breaks the $53.45 range on heavy selling volume, I’ll look to short.
