SPX – Weekly chart. This is the rising channel from the 2009 lows. There is still room for upside. The top trend line is ~1690-1700.
Even after Friday’s impressive run the McClellan Oscillator was unable to achieve overbought levels (>50).
The dollar’s strength has been incredible & I don’t see any reason why it won’t test the long term descending trend line starting from 2004. Meanwhile, the market is completely ignoring this action.
30 Year Bonds – Weekly – Building a head & shoulders pattern with some volume pockets significantly lower.
The daily chart shows a fib retrace at roughly 146’18 right near the confluence of moving averages & impeding bear cross.
LONGS:
AMZN – Watching the descending trend line — a push over it with above average volume could trigger a higher high and eventually a test of recent highs.
AMT – Three weeks worth of consolidation after a 15% run higher. Buy trigger for the next leg higher is $85.25 with preferably 2.5m+ shares.
AAPL – Volume signature is a bit concerning but I can’t help but notice the inverted head & shoulders pattern. I am long via a very small position of bull call spreads. I will close them for a small loss if we lose $419.00.
BIDU – Looks like the last few months have been a basing pattern with a few hints of accumulation. Price & volume will need to confirm the move but I believe last weeks action will confirm to be a bull flag. Watching.
CMI – Watching for a break over the descending trend line and volume resistance to start the next leg higher. Volume signature looks good.
The Energy Sector:
The XLE has been hot & the rotation into these names has already started. I am expecting to see more upside in a lot of these names this week. I wouldn’t recommend loading up with the entire lot but these are the best looking charts in sector — focus on one or two of your favorites.
APA – Cleared this long term trend line on heavy volume and recaptured the 200ema. Wouldn’t be surprised to see a little more digestion but it looks ready for long term higher prices.
COG – My favorite play for this week. Friday cleared and closed over volume resistance on above average volume. Recent highs is the first target then I would expect a breakout of the ascending triangle.
MPC – Cleared the descending trend line on Friday and closed right at volume resistance. Look for higher prices if the volume continues.
XOM – Looks ready to come out of the long term base. $93.60 is the first target but I think $100 is a realistic target before the end of June.
APC – Friday started a break out of a mini cup & handle pattern inside of the longer term ascending channel. First target is the upper trend line.
SHORTS:
EXPE – Possible bear flag developed off the EPS drop. A close below the 200ema would trigger the short entry with a first target of the recent lows.
PRE – Lost the rising trend line and major volume support on heavy volume. Stop on a short entry would be a close above the volume support level (about $91.25).
The SPX’s closing prints this week: 1517, 1519, 1520, 1521 & 1519, the /DX climbed to a descending trend line on the daily chart. It’s hard to start new swing short positions with the relentless bid under the tape & it’s hard to start new long swing positions while the SPY is flirting with the top of the bollinger bands but if the /DX is rejected off that trend line the market has room to push higher. Next resistance after 1523.57 on the SPX is 1552.76. I have a bullish bias.
After running my scans this weekend the longs heavily outweighed the shorts. Roughly 6:1. That has me concerned but I’ve been concerned for a month now. Sticking with the trading plan as the market isn’t doing anything wrong.
Longs:
BWA – Cup and handle on the daily chart. Heavy volume traded last week, if it can clear this descending channel to the upside (handle) — my plan is to start scaling in and add the full position after clearing the breakout trigger of $78.45 with heavy volume.
V – Visa has been consolidating in this bull flag formation for a few weeks. Tested the 50ema on the daily last week and Friday traded well over 100% average daily volume and closed near the highs of the day. I’m already long with (1/4 position) MAR $160 calls and red, will add full position on a confirmation. First target is $160, then recent highs.
FFIV – Worked off overbought levels quickly after testing the top side of this long term base. Gap fill is at $99.05. It is in an ascending triangle pattern, will watch volume for a sign of buyers to step in around 100-102 area. First target is $106.80.
CSTR – Didn’t get the volume it needed on Thursday to breakout from this longer term technical base. Going to watch it this week to see if $54.25 and/or the 8ema on the daily chart is maintained. Would like to see the breakout happen on over 2.5m shares.
PII – Testing the rising trend line on this ascending triangle. Watching for a move over $86.54 for my entry. My gut is telling me this would be better played as a day trade. Volume and closing price on Tuesday will be important.
Shorts:
AAPL – Series of lower highs inside of the larger descending triangle. Looks weak but is being manipulated by news. Looks like it wants to test the recent low but the safest way to play this name at the moment (in either direction) is by selling premium to the speculators.
APA – Weekly chart – Large selling volume late last week and multiple tests of this descending trend line. Has support at $74.50ish, & would expect to see $67 if that level fails with large volume.
“Whatever method you use to pick stocks…, your ultimate success or failure will depend on your ability to ignore the worries of the world long enough to allow your investments to succeed. It isn’t the head but the stomach that determines the fate of the stockpicker.” – Peter Lynch
This week is historically bullish except for Friday which has an average loss of .4% over the last thirteen years. The highly anticipated pullback that is expected Monday will provide all of these charts with interesting entry levels.
TWC – Long term ascending triangle. A pull back to the rising trend line or clearing the 50ema sets this one up for the gap fill. First target $98.17. Second target $100.50. A failure of the rising trend line is the stop.
COST – Testing this descending trend line. I am anticipating a pullback on Monday so my entry would be a test of the 8ema which is $96.75ish. Consider a 1/2 size position and add on a test of support ($94.50) or a clear bullish trend change on volume.
ROK – Bull flag/consolidation pattern on lighter volume the last two weeks. Watch for a move over price resistance with volume ($78.45) to start the next leg higher.
VMW – A healthy close over the 50ema on Friday. Watch for volume and price to clear this descending trend line for a technical bullish change.
UNP – Closed above the 10ema on the weekly chart on Friday. I am watching a pull back to the 8ema or a volume breakout over the volume resistance level of $122.75.
CELG – Cup & handle pattern. I may start to scale in on a move over $78.50 but the technical buy trigger is a move over $80.42.
APA – Currently trading under book value. Finviz is showing book/sh at $78.49. A few directors added to their positions & the Vice President of the company opened a new position of 4750 shares at $80.96 on Nov 6. My first target is $82.00 and my stop is a close under $73.00.
NUS – Higher lows being put in. My entry will be break of this short term channel with volume. First target is $49.00. Stop is a failure of the rising trend line.
ORLY – Showing a lot of strength and riding the 8ema for a few weeks now. If it can maintain these levels over $92.00 the next line of resistance is $94.82.
’cause I got one more match, Two strikes left, You got to three to get out of my way,
If the market decides to continue its superfluous sell off. The following shorts have appeared on my radar. Valid only if the market calls for it, obviously.
(Listed in order of best to worst)
INVN – Nice descending channel but lack of selling volume should be noted.
APA – Failed this rising channel inside of a larger descending triangle.
EOG – Most likely missed the move, tomorrow’s target is $84.
NKE – Failed this ascending triangle.
CLF – Watch for it to lose this ascending channel on above average volume.
Many apologies for getting this out late but something came up so it’s going to be short and to the point.
As always, volume confirms my buy/sell triggers. If the market decides it likes the news from overseas and the market rips higher here are the longs I will be interested in.
Longs
SNA – Watching $63.75
ALXN – Watching $95.05
BLL – Nice ascending triangle. $43.70
APA – Possibly clearing this descending trend line. $88.00
BRK.B – Testing $82.42.
AMT – $68.55
If the market decides Europe still sucks shit and we get a repeat of last Sundays move the following shorts will be on my radar.
Shorts
NKE – Testing this rising trend line. If it rolls over and continues to the downside I would set my stop at $103.25.
LULU – Sold off all last week. Still has an open gap at $54.08. Keep an eye on it.
CMG – Been working nicely in this descending triangle for weeks. Continues to offer low risk/reward entries testing that trend line.
LQDT – Failed the rising trend line on above average volume.
Ok, that’s it. I am switching brokerages this week so I am going to be relatively light but will post charts and do a proper post here throughout the week.
Scans for this Monday, 5.14.12, came up 75% bearish. It’s actually a decrease from prior weeks.
SPX – We will be testing important support levels this week. If the buyers don’t step up the SPX will start it’s next leg lower.
Longs: (Use caution and be quick with profits. Risk/Reward is to the downside).
QCOR – Held recent support in this rising triangle pattern. Easy low risk entry here. A close below the rising trend line for a stop. Target 46+.
BBBY – Relative strength. Watch the $72.75 level with buying volume.
WFM – Nice low volume consolidation pattern after heavy buy volume gap. Watch $91.50 & volume for the next leg higher.
Shorts:
AAPL – Still working in this descending triangle pattern. Prices below $571.90 are bearish — my money is on a test of $555.
CMG – Working below this descending trend line. If the failure of the 20ema from Friday holds I will add to my current short position.
ALXN – Started in a new descending channel after failing this ascending triangle. This 2 day bounce last week has been on relatively low volume and will not last without bulls.
LNKD – Watching for a failure of this ascending triangle on selling volume.
APA – Testing recent support of $85.25. Watch for a failure on volume.
CHKP – Momentum selling will bring this stock to support at $50.65.
