Watchlist 1.22.13 | Hats Off To The Bulls

Mon Jan 21, 2013 6:02pm

538 views

“Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism, and die on euphoria.”

SPX – Trading inside of this rising channel and riding up the 8ema since the fiscal cliff news. The majority consensus seems to be expecting the pullback now before we see 1500. I wouldn’t be surprised to see it keep grinding higher & frustrating the most. I am no longer in my SPY put position nor have a bias or preference. My hat goes off to the bulls. I have a solid list of stocks I’ll be watching this week–both long & short.

Watching:

AAPL – I don’t have a position in AAPL and I won’t take a new swing before earnings. However, if I was forced to play it would be to the long side. This weekly chart tested the 100ema and put in an interesting candle with above average volume. With the relentless selling and downside pressure, I believe a poor earnings report has been somewhat priced in.

GS – Financial sector has been outperforming and could use a healthy a rest. The descending trend line on this weekly chart will come into play this week. Notice the volume has been increasing as it approaches. Watch for a low volume digestion period. $155+ could happen fast.

LONGS:

BIDU – Textbook bull flag put in last week on lighter volume & is just below resistance. Watch for volume to increase early this week and a push higher over this descending trend line. Measured move is a minimum of $120.00.

KORS – It’s been honoring the moving averages for the last two weeks and trading inside of a larger ascending triangle pattern. Friday closed just under a larger volume resistance shelf. A push higher with above average volume could bring us the near term highs.

EW – Similar pattern to KORS; larger ascending triangle pattern. Volume resistance is a few cents shy of $95.00. Would like to see 200%+ daily average volume on price clearing $95.00+.

GGC – First time looking at this name–Friday’s hammer on above average volume compared to the previous two selling days caught my eye. Tested fairly close to the 50% retracement too. If Friday’s candle is honored I’ll be interested.

SHORTS:

FIRE – Multiple tests of this support level and a series of lower highs make it likely for this gap to be filled sooner rather than later. Last weeks action looks a bit like a bear flag as well with the consolidation period on lighter volume. The target is gap fill at $36.38.

CMG – I was short CMG last week when it got hit on news of lowered guidance. I covered that day and it has regained the entire range. Now it is right back at that descending trend line where I took the initial trade at. I am watching volume for an indication of a breakout or a failure. EPS is coming up soon and I likely won’t have a position unless I decide to sell premium.

DLTR – I have shorted DLTR a few times successfully recently inside the long term descending triangle. I don’t want to start a position in the middle of the range. I would like to a retest of the 50ema on the daily chart or even the descending trend line.

TIF – This is on the short list as a hunch that it won’t get the volume necessary in order to clear this long term descending trend line. Of course, if I notice it is under accumulation I will likely reverse my thought process and get long. As always, I will wait for the volume to confirm the move for me.

Hats off to the bull, keep giving all.
What ya’ say we make amends,
@AffluenzaVirus

Watchlist 1.14.13 | Let’s Get Outta’ Here

Sun Jan 13, 2013 7:51pm

379 views

It’s no secret than I am net short and looking for a pullback (and wrong so far). This market is over extended and while we did have a short digestion period, it wasn’t as healthy as I would have liked to see.

Each day this market grinds higher and I have continued to press my shorts. I will throw in the towel when we get a cash close over 1475.00. May come as fast as Monday.

On Friday, BusinessInsider.com published this chart and article. I think it’s interesting and eventually going to help return some of the volatility to the market that we’ve been missing so much, but immediately, it’s just one more reason for me to feel that a short term pullback is due. On a very short term scale I can feel the sense of bullish euphoria. Non market participants are starting to talk and ask me personally about what they should be investing in since the fiscal cliff rally. At the same time we have Reuters reporting, “the hedge fund industry saw its biggest month of withdrawals in 3 years this past December.

Long term, I am still leaning with a bullish bias. I am in the new all time highs in 2013 camp. However, I am positioned and looking for at least a 2% correction. If I am wrong I will flatten those shorts and reevaluate as I see necessary.

The watch list is going to be short and sweet because I am not looking to start any new positions while we’re in this range. After running some scans, these are the ones that caught my eye:

LONGS:

XOM – Cleared this descending trend line last week. Clearing $89.71 should bring us the gap fill of $90.73.

HBI – Still working inside this longer term ascending triangle pattern. There is volume resistance/support at $36.30.

NFLX – $101.79 gap was closed on Friday. If we can get above it with volume that level will become support. Like this name long term. DIS validated the brand & it could see $140-$150 by 2014.

SHORTS:

AAPL – The chart is still broken. The rips are being violently sold. There is no support being offered to maintain these current prices.

KO – Steady downtrend for a few months with an open gap below. Don’t chase here, wait for a retest of the moving averages.

CNX – Lost volume support and this ascending trend line on 200%+ average daily volume on Friday. First target is recent support at $28.50.

We’re gonna’ go where we have no worries,

@AffluenzaVirus

Watchlist 10.22.12 | World Around Me

Sun Oct 21, 2012 3:37pm

1,064 views

Friday, the SPX closed above important support (1432) & near this longer term rising trend line. Even when things are looking their ugliest it’s hard for me to swing any positions short with impeding QE Infinity & possibility of Iran nuclear talks. I scanned about 3000 charts this weekend & I did find a few good short & long setups.

*NOTE* Don’t forget to check your earnings dates before you get in.

SHORTS

NKE – Daily chart is a descending triangle. Short entry is as close to the descending trend line as possible. Stop is a close over the 200ema, currently $98.18. First Target is $92.72.

SHLD – Stochastics are over bought and it put in a lower high this week. I would like to start a short position on the failure of the rising trend line. On the otherside, if SHLD finds support and clears above the volume resistance with conviction it could be worth a few points on a long position.

LONGS

ABX – Keep this one on your watchlists — could be developing an inverted head & shoulders bottom.

EBAY – Cleared previous resistance on heavy volume. I am looking to start a long position off the 10ema on the weekly chart. Looking for roughly $48.46 or as close to it as I can get.

SHW – Similar chart to EBAY. Going to keep an eye on this one and look to go long on a test off the 50ema and/or the rising trend line.

EOG – Started building this position on Friday. Cup & handle pattern developing. First target is recent highs near $120.

MCP – Cleared this two year descending trend line and putting in a nice technical base. Started in some January calls on Friday.

HON – Cleared long term resistance of $62.00 with heavy volume. Watch how it handles this coming week. A lot of failed breakouts lately.

PCLN – I see no real edge either way here but I am watching these levels.

We live and die in a world of lies,

@AffluenzaVirus

Watchlist 7.9.12 | Becoming The Bull

Fri Jul 6, 2012 12:19am

919 views

Getting a head start on next weeks list. If tomorrow’s job numer causes the market to sell off it will most likely invalidate these patterns.

GOOG – Closed above the 200ema on average volume. We might test the top trend line of the channel before determining direction.

SODA – Closed just below gap resistance of $42.30. Watch this one here.

CAT – Watch for a move over this descending trend line on above average volume.

CF – Watch $203.35 in this huge ascending triangle.

ASH – $70 was long term resistance. It cleared it today and closed above it on above average volume. Looks good for higher.

LNN – Great run the last few days because the country is having a drought. Watch for a move above $70.15 on above average volume for this one to start it’s next leg higher.

VMI – $This one cleared above resistance on above average volume. Watch for a possible higher move.

Back and forth the struggle consumes us all. Trying to keep a level head, in the most unsettling of times. Today I’ll become the bull,

– @AffluenzaVirus

6.28.12 | Fly From The Inside

Wed Jun 27, 2012 6:00pm

1,223 views

A few interesting charts I came across today.

ABT – Long term resistance is $63.20.

V – Resistance at $125.35.

DPS – Bull flag is still valid.

TWX – Long term resistance at $38.50. Huge volume at price. Vacuum is ready to suck this higher.

TRIP – Resistance at $45.85.

BLL – Ascending Triangle pattern I have been watching for months. Might be worth grabbing some long off this trend line.

CMG – Got crushed on rumors their beef isn’t actually beef. Support at $386.45.

APA – Testing this descending triangle. If it breaks higher on heavy volume it might be worth swinging some long. If it fails, support is $75.05

HCN – Ascending triangle. Possible Supreme Court ruling play.

Every day a new deception, pick your scene and take direction,

@AffluenzaVirus

Watchlist 6.25.12 | Come Together

Sun Jun 24, 2012 3:16pm

1,662 views

A quick look at the $SPX. I really went out of my way to try to find a bullish twist on this chart but I couldn’t. None of the longer term trend lines were appropriate. After I reviewed the DX (Dollar Futures) and the stock bond ratio it is clear to me that the market wants to start the next leg lower.

$SPX – I am expecting a failure of this rising wedge.

$DX_F (Dollar Futures) – Without even charting them, I’m sure the fib levels are congruous. Even without, the chart looks ready to clear this descending channel with volume and make a run to the upside.

Stock Bond Ratio – Bounced off the 65 MA. Not ready for a cross yet.

With that being said, I found a few really interesting long setups.

V – I am interested after clearing $125.35 with volume.

ALXN – Like it here for higher prices. Would have a hard stop set at $95.

GLUU – Speculation play. Like it over $5.00. Stop could be a close below the 8ema.

VHC – Nice ascending triangle. Could scale in here or on a pull back and add clearing $35.25 w/ volume confirmation.

EBAY – Like it here for a move higher. Stop would be the breakout level. Roughly $1 or 41.80ish. First target of $44.

DPS – Nice bull flag. Notice the consolidation on lighter volume. Getting ready to start the next leg higher.

TRIP – Breakout watch $45.85 w/ volume.

Also watching:

TWX – Close to testing long term resistance. Watch it.

CFX – Interesting candle on Friday w/ huge volume. Watch for a possible reversal on Monday.

Some interesting short setups:

GS – Descending Channel inside of a larger descending triangle. Below all the averages. Stochastics & volume suggest a lower price.

HME – If we can get a close under $58.75 this one will see lower prices.

COF – Watch this one to lose the 50ema. Next support is $51.50ish.

COV – After losing $52.35, this one will see lower.

Trade Safe,

@AffluenzaVirus

Focus List 6.11.12

Sun Jun 10, 2012 7:57pm

1,336 views

For whatever it’s worth, I wrote this before futures opened this evening.

I am watching for one of two possible scenarios to pan out. The first one, I feel is more likely, though not my preferred outcome. Either way, I remain in a heavier cash position than normal and am not looking to force a trade. Market is close to making a decision, in my opinion.

SPX (Bearish Scenario) – SPX retests $1340 range or possibly even as high as $1358.5 before an increase in selling volume rolls the market over to test the $1200-1202 level. This of course will time out perfectly with bad news coming from Europe.

SPX (Bullish Scenario) – SPX trades in the $1292 – $1335 range this week and it is announced that the EuroZone has been bailed out, Italy, Greece and Spain are just fine or the EZ decides on Euro-bonds and all is right with the world. The market will rally in an explosive and violent move to the upside.

Of course there is the 3rd option. A more horrifyingly boring scenario to possibly play out. The market moves sideways for the next 3 months until everyone kills themselves out of boredom. Possible, but not likely.

Anyway, here are some charts:

LONGS

QCOR – I am going to continue to mention this one at every opportunity until the move completes or fails. I’ve been holding for weeks. Watch for volume at $46.

EBAY – Nice consolidation pattern beneath the highs. Rising nicely in the ascending triangle pattern. Watching for a push over $41.85 with volume.

WFM – Another nice looking ascending triangle. Watch for a volume breakout over $91.50.

LQDT – Watching $66.60 with above average volume.

TGT – Cleared resistance on just a little over average volume. Watch for a possible follow through.

SHORTS

(If the market decides this Spailout turns to sPANIC, here’s what I’ll be looking at first)

GOOG – Google daily chart bear flag. Half way back is $592ish. I would short losing this flag on heavy volume. Then add the full position on losing $566.

CMG – Still working inside of this descending triangle pattern. Lower your risk selling closer to the descending trend line. This one is heading lower unless some serious buyers step in and stay in.

TIF – Closed below support of $56.21. If this one breaks the $53.45 range on heavy selling volume, I’ll look to short.

Have a great night and trade safe this week,

@AffluenzaVirus

“All I want is a little of the good life.”

$VHC – Huge Option Premium

Thu May 3, 2012 7:46pm

359 views

VHC posted some good news today:

“Under the terms of the Agreement, VirnetX has agreed to license certain of its patents to Aastra USA, Inc., for a one-time payment to VirnetX and an ongoing reasonable royalty for all future sales through the expiration of the licensed patents as outlined in the Agreement with respect to certain current and future IP-encrypted products. Under the terms of the Agreement, the Parties have also agreed to dismiss the patent infringement case between the Parties and their affiliates before the U.S. District Court for the Eastern District of Texas. All other aspects of the agreement were not disclosed. “

Which resulted in a 22.5% gain and huge gain in options premium.

I am going to be watching it closely tomorrow, there is an opportunity here to sell some options and collect that premium.

@affluenzavirus