Watchlist 2.19.13 | This is Gonna’ Hurt

The SPX’s closing prints this week: 1517, 1519, 1520, 1521 & 1519, the /DX climbed to a descending trend line on the daily chart. It’s hard to start new swing short positions with the relentless bid under the tape & it’s hard to start new long swing positions while the SPY is flirting with the top of the bollinger bands but if the /DX is rejected off that trend line the market has room to push higher. Next resistance after 1523.57 on the SPX is 1552.76. I have a bullish bias.

After running my scans this weekend the longs heavily outweighed the shorts. Roughly 6:1. That has me concerned but I’ve been concerned for a month now. Sticking with the trading plan as the market isn’t doing anything wrong.

Longs:

BWA – Cup and handle on the daily chart. Heavy volume traded last week, if it can clear this descending channel to the upside (handle) — my plan is to start scaling in and add the full position after clearing the breakout trigger of $78.45 with heavy volume.

V – Visa has been consolidating in this bull flag formation for a few weeks. Tested the 50ema on the daily last week and Friday traded well over 100% average daily volume and closed near the highs of the day. I’m already long with (1/4 position) MAR $160 calls and red, will add full position on a confirmation. First target is $160, then recent highs.

FFIV – Worked off overbought levels quickly after testing the top side of this long term base. Gap fill is at $99.05. It is in an ascending triangle pattern, will watch volume for a sign of buyers to step in around 100-102 area. First target is $106.80.

CSTR – Didn’t get the volume it needed on Thursday to breakout from this longer term technical base. Going to watch it this week to see if $54.25 and/or the 8ema on the daily chart is maintained. Would like to see the breakout happen on over 2.5m shares.

PII – Testing the rising trend line on this ascending triangle. Watching for a move over $86.54 for my entry. My gut is telling me this would be better played as a day trade. Volume and closing price on Tuesday will be important.

Shorts:

AAPL – Series of lower highs inside of the larger descending triangle. Looks weak but is being manipulated by news. Looks like it wants to test the recent low but the safest way to play this name at the moment (in either direction) is by selling premium to the speculators.

APA – Weekly chart – Large selling volume late last week and multiple tests of this descending trend line. Has support at $74.50ish, & would expect to see $67 if that level fails with large volume.