Crazy shit. I will refrain from making stock price predictions. If you are wondering what I believe the stock market will do; I believe it will fluctuate. These predictions are in no particular order.
#1. Japan will begin to feel the pain of a huge deficit and aging demographic. This will come in the form of a weaker YEN.
#2. Countries within the EU, whom have suffered serious austerity measures and spending cuts will begin serious talks of leaving the EU. This will no longer be idle talk, but serious negotiations. They will either leave the EU in 2012, or plan a date in the future. These countries include all of the PIIGS.
#3. The EU will survive; However it will look drastically different from today. If I’m wrong on this it would make 99% of the people expecting a breakup correct. Something I find impossible to believe.
#4. China will continue to see housing price declines and will continue to call this a “soft landing”. Price declines will accelerate.
#5. Commodity prices will trade lower, watch the CRB.
#6. The Australian and Canadian housing markets will decline dramatically(20%+). This will also pull the Australian and Canadian dollars lower.
#7. Again, the US dollar will remain the flight to safety.
#8. RIMM will be either bought out, or trade higher.
#9. Blue chip companies with a good dividend will outperform the market(MSFT, INTC, IBM, MCD). Companies with no dividend will underperform (AAPL is a prime example). This does not mean that I expect blue chips to trade positive.
#10. Volatility will again reign supreme.
#11. North Korea and South Korea will begin talks of merger. If they do not merge in 2012, they will have plans to merge in the future. They will be named the United Korean Emirates(or something with the word “United”).
#12. Stupid shit beyond my ability to foresee will happen in the middle east.
#13. Recessions in all BRIC’s. Leading to further pressure on commodity prices.
#14. Housing in the US will not bottom, but will see large improvements. While, I do not see a housing bottom in 2012, it is very close.
#15. Obama will not be reelected.
#16. I will continue to bank serious coin, as per the usual.
These predictions are not something you should trade. They are simply my views. Remember, always trade with the market and you too can bank serious coin with me.
This will be a historic black Monday type of thing. Hedge fund managers and traders alike will return from vacation with a new perspective on life and extreme bias to sell. They will come to realize this stock shit just isn’t cool anymore. What’s cool is being with family and friends not gambling in this bullshit casino.
Face it, the world is going to end in 2012 and no one wants to own stocks. They want to own things like toilet paper, US dollars, gold bars and large weapons. Lucky enough for me, I live in Canada and we shall be the sole survivors, because our banking system is so strong(right?). I also have several holes buried in my garden containing valuable things like cigarettes, alcohol and Playboys. Don’t worry, no metal boxes were used. All carbon fiber and trust me they are impossible to find.
Moving on, I expect AMZN to file for bankruptcy. Top sales include the Kindle and Call of duty? A ebook reader they make no money on and a video game. Pathetic. I will summarize my feelings on AMZN with a single chart.
Increasing Sales and Decreasing Profits. I played with the idea of doing a writeup on the margin squeeze that AMZN is currently experiencing, but decided this single chart is explanation enough. If you’re curious, go to this link to find the bullshit slide show from AMZN. It includes many charts on increasing sales, but very few on the decreasing profits. Typical business shit, hiding the monsters in the closet till unsuspecting investors fall asleep. Only to never wake, because they are currently bankrupt and dead.
If the SPX were to move above 1,270 then I would be forced show the bulls some respect.
Trading today is set to rip faces off. Limit the number of trades you make; over trading will hurt you. Seems to me this market is acting wildly with no direction. Whenever you see the market acting wildly, chances are the market will move lower. Lack of conviction from bulls, leads to confidence for the bears.
Personally, I will be trying my hardest to avoid trading today. I know this will be difficult, as I have buy and sell signals flashing left and right. In reality these signals are all ploys to strip me from my hard earned money. The faster you recognize these ploys the less money you will lose.
I will be trying to build my short position in AMZN on weakness. This is to ready myself for the inevitable bed shitting on Monday. The fact that AMZN bounced yesterday and has failed to carry that bounce into today is extremely bearish in my opinion. The trading day is still young and I realize AMZN could get its shit togeather to trade higher, but I believe that would be a losing bet.
UPDATE: I have been watching PC and it looks ready to breakout.
If you buy AMZN here, I will make money off your trading failures. These failures may not be apparent to you at this moment, but come tomorrow they will be. This is currently a dream; one you will cry about when you wake. You will be dumbfounded and bamboozled by the losses that will materialize on your trading screens. Trust me, this will fucking happen.
This rally is grounded on weak soil and will crumble in seconds. News released today regarding record Kindle sales only makes my convictions stronger. They are trying to push the only good news they have and it is far from outstanding. Similar to the release of record sales by AAPL, the day before they disappointed. It’s the same every time. It’s all a fucking ploy to trick the simple and reward the great.
Come next week, the new year will start off with a bang. Managers whom shit the bed in 2011 will return, only to sell everything in disbelief. Everything will sell off come 2012. Gold will continue to fuck world governments in the skull by embarking on a continued rise(After this sell off). Simple fact, the underlying story of gold/silver has not changed. Governments are still fucked and they will continue to print money. These momentary pauses should be bought with excitement. Please, as always use caution and wait for a bottom to materialize(Risk management is key).
My trading today has been fucked to say the least. I have been short, long and short again. This is part of my risk management as I don’t want my correctness on the long term to be trumped by wrongness on the short term. They will call 2012, “The Fall of Kings” as high flying stocks shit the bed continually. I know this to be true and cannot let some interaday rally screw with my convictions. As you know, I hold risk management in the highest regard and never allow a position to lose in a significant fashion. I will try to keep updates coming, but it has been challenging recently.
We have so many fucking doubtful pricks on this site it’s fucking unbelievable. This is the time to exploit the weaknesses in AMZN. This thing is getting ready to fall from the fucking clouds as I have mentioned before. I still hold a position after being short-covered-short-covered. I won’t take credit for this position, as I did not share this information with the rest of you undeserving assholes. I will however, take credit for the move this stock is going to make to near zero. This stock is fucking dead and you learned it here first. A move above $175 would force me to cover, but I don’t expect that.
AMZN is dead. Here’s the chart I’ve been watching.HERE
I also just glanced over a hilarious article, HERE. What the fuck is going on? Doesn’t AMZN take a loss on those Kindles?
AMZN plans to make money off of ebooks sold, while taking a loss on the hardware(or near loss). Bottom line, this was a shitty plan to begin with and AMZN is completely fucked. I will be taking a short position here, and with any luck I will be adding to my position while AMZN falls from the fucking clouds.(I will be keeping this short on a tight leash)
I will also be looking to short gold. I know, I must be fucking crazy. While I love gold long term, right now it looks like complete shit and I see a lot of potential sellers. I will update this post when I decide to take a short position in gold.
UDPATE: Shorted some gold here.
UPDATE2: I covered my gold short after realizing that was fucking stupid on my part. Regardless of my short term opinion on gold, I need to stick to my trading rules of positioning myself with my long term outlook.
UPDATE3:AMZN looks to have put in a “W” bottom on the 5min chart. Rather then feel the pain, I’ll step back from this one and look for a better entry.
That I have my trading legs back? My RY short is working out magically and I expect to ride this fake accounting garbage stock down to $1 before I consider covering. I’m quite sure we will have a volatile move down, but there is no doubt RY gets bailed out before it’s all over. I’ve said this before and I’ll say it again, RY moves like a crack head at times. Making risk management the most important thing.(In all seriousness, I will be looking for a move to $47)
The market in general looks like shit, and I expect an extreme sell off Thursday. It will be completely unexpected, yet 100% deserved. I will be holding my RY short(providing it continues to act well), while watching for other stocks to detonate. I also have several long ideas, but they are on hold till the end of the world is once again averted, via ECB bailout.
UPDATE:Covered my RY short, +1% on that trade and I’m starting to see some trades setting up and would like to concentrate on some better opportunities.
Continuing with my previous macro post, that I’m quite sure no one cares about. I would like to continue with what I believe to be WW3. I mean to say that world governments have embarked on a war against free markets. This is a war that began decades ago and is soon to reach a pinnacle.
Free markets would see a dramatic wealth transfer from the developed world that produces little, to the emerging world that produces plenty. Wages that are to high in the US, would fall. While wages that are to low in China, would rise. Free markets would do a lot of scary shit, yet world governments are more then happy interfering. Creating a false sense of security on the surface, while creating unintended instability beneath.
It’s all a complete joke.
The more I think about it, the more I want to train for the UFC, so I may defend myself when the world falls apart. The more I think about it, I need guns. Lots of guns.
The only bright side to this story, is in the fact that if you think rationally you can make a shitload of money, that is before the world blows up. Free markets will prevail, it’s only a matter of time. The only question is what battles will world governments lose first?
I would like to say, the EU. The only problem, is it seems to me the chance to make significant money has already been passed. Possibly, buying equities AFTER a EU breakup may prove rewarding(Senior debt would be the safer bet). After all, if the EU were to breakup(seems an inevitability to me) I’m quite sure they would be individually printing money to bail out everything.(Nationalization may throw a wrench in this otherwise glorious plan)
I believe China is absolutely fucked. However, I’m going to completely skip talking about them. Long term, they will be okay. Short term, it doesn’t look good.
In my eyes, Japan will soon lose the battle against free market forces. They have a serious debt problem and there are only three ways out of debt. Tax more, spend less or print money (Forget about growing, it doesn’t happen). Every single road leads to one thing, a lower Yen. I can’t help but laugh at the recent Japanese intervention. What a joke.
FYI, I still have my RY short. Also if you’re a fan of Nassim Nicholas Taleb, I recommend reading this.
Buy large Ford F150 loads of gold coins, bars and jewelry. I’m going conspiracy theory on your ass and this paper money shit is going to fucking burn up in your pocket before you can spend it on cheap hookers and even cheaper booze. I see no other scenario.
I’m still short term bearish on gold, therefore I cannot bring myself to buy significant amounts here. However, I can read the tea leaves and the future is filled with images of central bankers dropping money from helicopters, planes and anything else with the capability of traveling large distances quickly. This is no joke.
The news hasn’t begun to hit the mainstream yet, but I can tell you the headline will read “RECESSION”. This headline will hit all over Europe, Asia, and the BRIC’s. This is going down like fucking clockwork. The central bankers know it’s coming, yet they have to wait till it hits(gets worse) before they have the justification to print money. Just as Greenspan/Ben denied the housing bust and waited for justification so will the central bankers around the world.
Understand central bankers all go to the same fucking school(one I would like to burn down if I knew its location) and all follow the same rules. Economy looks good, they keep credit easy. Economy looks bad, they make credit easier. Economy looks really bad, they bail everyone out. This is something you can count on, like the sun rising in the east.
This is a long term outlook of our current situation, not something to trade on going into open this week. In the short term “stocks will fluctuate”. I can tell you that much with certainty, but other then that no one knows. That said, I will tell you I shorted RY into close. This stock is fucked and seeing it above $50 sent alarm bells ringing throughout my home. Alarms I have rigged up for when some type of ridiculous shit happens. These are the same bells that went off when NFLX hit $300 and when Obama was elected. Long story short, these alarm bells are right and you’re wrong.
I fucking hate Peter Schiff.
Since Tuesday, I’ve done just about nothing. I’ve saved myself embarrassing loses from dumb short positions, yet I’ve failed to take advantage of this rally. True be known, this rally is complete bullshit and I’ve been watching it with eyes of disdain. I spit on this bullshit rally and will laugh when it self destructs because of the announcement of world bankruptcy.
That said, I can’t help thinking there is something I’ve over looked. I can’t help but wonder if the market I was trading before my vacation has changed character since my return. It makes sense, yet I don’t understand why. Recessions in the EU are good for stocks? Bullshit. Was it that joint rate cut by bankrupt counties? Doubt it. Prospects of higher profits and more consumer demand? Bullshit.
Every scenario I can fathom leads me to believe this is a short term rally. The type that is just long enough to hook all the suckers. Fuck it, maybe I’m wrong. Maybe we rally in the face of world recession. It could happen and quite honestly, I’m close to jumping on the bullish bandwagon. Probably just in time for it to roll off a cliff, but who cares it’s almost 2012 anyway.
Moving forward, I’m going to continue to watch this market. I would much rather watch, then take part in this nonsense. I’m watching everything you’re watching and everything everyone else is watching. I’m watching so many stocks and potential setups on every side that if I were a mere mortal my head would explode. I’m watching the usual high flyers and all the bull trappers. I even watched Mission Impossible and it reminded me of the bears trying to play this shitty tape. I will be posting less then usual till the new year, but will be watching the show.
UPDATE: In other news, RY is defying the laws of gravity. Fucking unbelievable.
UPDATE2: Looking to short RY. I will be waiting for this topping formation to materialize before taking any position, but believe this is a good time to short. Just need to wait a bit longer.
UPDATE3: Opened a short position in RY. This is not a full position at this time.