12 AMZN is dead. Here’s the chart I’ve been watching.HERE
I also just glanced over a hilarious article, HERE. What the fuck is going on? Doesn’t AMZN take a loss on those Kindles?
AMZN plans to make money off of ebooks sold, while taking a loss on the hardware(or near loss). Bottom line, this was a shitty plan to begin with and AMZN is completely fucked. I will be taking a short position here, and with any luck I will be adding to my position while AMZN falls from the fucking clouds.(I will be keeping this short on a tight leash)
I will also be looking to short gold. I know, I must be fucking crazy. While I love gold long term, right now it looks like complete shit and I see a lot of potential sellers. I will update this post when I decide to take a short position in gold.
UDPATE: Shorted some gold here.
UPDATE2: I covered my gold short after realizing that was fucking stupid on my part. Regardless of my short term opinion on gold, I need to stick to my trading rules of positioning myself with my long term outlook.
UPDATE3:AMZN looks to have put in a “W” bottom on the 5min chart. Rather then feel the pain, I’ll step back from this one and look for a better entry.
12 Responses to “AMZN…”
thorium
AMZN 50 day moving average touched 200 day today. Wonder if this is the next CRM or NFLX
10banger
The business models of NFLX and AMZN match up. In the sense that they both have low-to-zero barriers of entry into the industry.
Sites like http://www.dealextreme.com offer direct sale of goods from Chinese factories. They are extremely cheap and offer free shipping, FROM FUCKING CHINA!(How they offer free shipping is beyond me)
Bottom line, the razor thin margins that AMZN runs are vulnerable. Not to mention, who the fuck still buys CD’s these days? Books are going to be the same story as CD’s come 5 years. Everyone will be using a Kindles to read illegally downloaded books. Absolutely killing AMZN, Barnes and any store in the book selling business.
The parallels from books and CD’s is quite evident to me. I can’t imagine why it isn’t evident to everyone else.
10banger
Does anyone remember the first Ipod’s?
Remember what happened to CD’s when they started getting popular? Music stores went belly up, and artists were crying on the news every other day.
If you think they same type of scenario is impossible for ebook readers and ebooks your dull.
kcscott
AMZN sells everything – and while I agree there’s some short term money to be made on the short side ($160 is my call), betting against them long term is foolhardy.
Here’s my take: http://ibankcoin.com/kcscott/2011/12/24/ghost-of-christmas-presents-amzn/
10banger
Checkout that link I gave earlier.
http://www.dealextreme.com
They sell everything. Don’t believe me? Check them out. 100% legit. I’ve used them several times myself.
Saying betting against them long term is foolhardy, are you implying no one is going to download ebooks? Are you implying that no other sites can sell bullshit toys cheaper?
Anyway, maybe you’re right. I will be taking the chance to short and find out how low they really go.
kcscott
OK – I just looked it over (electronics / video games / clothing) – and what I didn’t see is any actual brands listed.
In my opinion it looks like a China site that sells a little of everything – but no actual brands of anything.
I’m sure there are some great deals on commodity type items – but you can’t go there and buy Levis or Apple or Calloway like you can on AMZN – and that is a day and night difference
Hope this makes some sense –
10banger
Very true.
Raul3
Copywrites are toast. Have you seen the capability of torrent streams? Books, movies, software, television, and clearly music are free for the taking. Not sure how they will levy these crimes sans big brother cyborgs
10banger
Torrents are unstoppable.
kcscott
Raul – don’t know your age but the VAST majority of folks I know (30-50 somethings) don’t download torrents or rars. They do order things like Netflix or Hulu.
Speaking of which – this piece came out today on AMZN – looks like their streaming business is taking some share also:
http://venturebeat.com/2011/12/28/netflix-customer-satisfaction/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+Venturebeat+%28VentureBeat%29
Raul3
Paid streams are great, and will continue to exist. They do the legwork of aggregating a collection and providing a clean interface.
When content becomes digital and stored on hard drives, poof! your bullshit industry is over.
Did you see the newest Mission Impossible? Is it a movie or a BMW commercial? #Hollywoodadaptingtochangingbusinessmodel (I used a #hashtag to disclose my age)
Aside: I did 90% of my pagan Xmas shopping on AMZN and can’t imagine they’re toast due to a stupid tablet, but I have no idea the expectations baked into price here. I’m just talking digital media.
The Equalizer
When content becomes digital and bandwidth becomes sufficiently-omnipresent, poof! “Your” hard drive sits in an AMZN datacenter.
No position AMZN. Not real big on the cloud as a replacement for local storage, either. To me, it seems like a regression back to the mainframe/dumb-terminal model of the 60s (or the client/server model of the 90s). But whether I like it or not, the ’10s appear to be the decade of the cloud/TV-PC-Tablet-Mobile business model. 4 devices, 4 screens, one network, accessing data stored remotely.